Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus

[elbows]

One of the reasons SARS-CoV-2 is considered a novel virus is because of the unusually high proportion of asymptomatic cases.

I have always used the term novel virus as a result of the virus either being new to human understanding, or being new to our immune systems. Other interesting aspects of the virus, its effect on humans, its ability to confound some dull and narrow expectations didnt really come into the equation when deciding whether to use the term novel. If its a novel virus in terms of our immune systems then it has pandemic potential, and thats why I'd call it a novel virus.

Nor do I believe that the proportion of asymptomatic cases is actually unusual or unexpected. I am painfully aware that various experts and sides of the orthodoxy had other impressions, but from the word go I always considered that to be because of a bias against accepting very inconvenient truths that had massive implications for what sort of response would be required. But not all the experts downplayed the asymptomatic side of things initially, and I did not come up with my own novel ideas about this, I was just prepared to accept some early data and anecdotes and expert views whilst having a lower regard for others. And I picked an established side that seemed more likely to be in touch with reality and not so much in denial, and that were in tune with my pre-concieved notions that were developed long before this particular pandemic. This approach was not without its downsides, for example my beliefs about this side of things caused me to reject early WHO China report findings that there were very few asymptomatic cases in China. I was openly skeptical about that at the time, February 2020, and on that occasion I happened to make the right choice and looked like I knew what I was talking about, but it was a risk, I could have been completely wrong.

For some background to what I'm saying, just do a few random internet searches for things like proportion of asymptomatic cases with influenza. Whenever I've done that in the past, I end up with a very wide range of possible results, and all sorts of indicators that nowhere near enough research had been done to improve the quality of findings in this area.

It does get even more complicated when it comes to more specific issues such as how much transmission occurs in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. It is possible that SARS-Cov-2 is special and not typical in that regard. But its also possible people were just ignoring asymptomatic transmission of flu etc in the past. So there are some very definite limits to how much reasonably secure knowledge we had about these things prior to this pandemic. I'd say that at a minimum there were good reasons to expect to find a much more significant role than some wanted to assume was the case in the past, and that this pandemic certainly gave a much needed sense of urgency to research in this area. I cannot honestly say that anything discovered so far about how much of an issue this stuff is has actually been surprising to me at all.

 

[cupid_stunt]

wrong thread.

 

[elbows]

I have always used the term novel virus as a result of the virus either being new to human understanding, or being new to our immune systems. Other interesting aspects of the virus, its effect on humans, its ability to confound some dull and narrow expectations didnt really come into the equation when deciding whether to use the term novel. If its a novel virus in terms of our immune systems then it has pandemic potential, and thats why I'd call it a novel virus.

I should also have said that this wasnt me trying to come up with my own special approach either. I used the term novel virus in that specific, limited context because thats how I'd seen others using it in the literature. Which is not to say that the word novel cannot be used in other ways too, eg I would have a different view if it was used in the literature as part of a sentence such as 'the virus appears to have some novel characteristics'.

Nothing novel about how tedious I can be!

 

[William of Walworth]

elbows ,: not tedious at all IMO!

This thread's recent discussion about the nature of the coronavirus as a virus, and how infection happens, and (most importantly IMO ) how vaccines work, has been absolutely fascinating for me.

I learnt an incredible amount from 2hats ' excellent post just before (I read that Scientific American article as well).

It's really worth non-scientists making more efforts to grasp this stuff. Thanks, everyone.

 

[William of Walworth]

I think plenty of people on Urban and generally, are very prone to noticing (and even dwelling on) potentually bad news about vaccines.

I've lost almost all optimism concerning nearly everything else Covid-related -- today's unsurprising 'big Festival' news didn't help , fully expected though it was.

But I retain plenty of optimism about the vaccines (science can update them, man!!) and even about the (UK) logistics of distributing them in coming weeks and months

 

[mx wcfc]

I think plenty of people on Urban and generally, are very prone to noticing (and even dwelling on) potentually bad news about vaccines.

I've lost almost all optimisism concerning neraly everything else Covid-related -- today's unsurprising 'big Festival' news didn't help , fully expected though it was.

But I retain plenty of optimism about the vaccines (science can update them, man!!) and even about the (UK) logistics of distributing them in comiog weeks and months

How do you feel about Bearded in September? And Something Else?

I have rolled over tickets for both, I think they could happen, and I'm hanging onto that.

Attila hasn't said anything about Glastonwick, which is early June. I assume that's not happening. Or Naughty Corner, also June.

I also have a Gail's 50th ticket for early July. I fear that will fail now.

 

[William of Walworth]

mx wcfc : I'm reluctant to say much yet.
Emphasis on 'yet'! ... but I can't help saying stuff about my favourite subject!

I need to update myself on what Gail's been saying on Facebook lately about her events.

Given the tiny size of Something Elses, she may well have a better chance of her end-of-September end-of-season bash happening.

As for Bearded, theoretcially to be in September ..... who knows?

While stuff I've seen from the BT organisers sounds optimistic for now, they are deliberately avoiding confirming the line-up untl April ... time will tell!, etc., etc.

 

[Supine]

This isn't the festival thread

 

[William of Walworth]

This isn't the festival thread

OK, Grumpy!!

I was directly asked a question, and unfortunately, diversions/mini-derails sometimes happen in threads

It's not like I haven't contributed plenty of on-topic, vaccine-specific stuff on this thread generally.

And when/whether festivals happen this year just might bear a little bit of relation to the vaccine programme too

 

[Supine]

OK, Grumpy!!

I was directly asked a question, and unfortunately, diversions/mini-derails sometimes happen in threads

It's not like I haven't oontributed plenty of on-topic, vaccine-specific stuff on this thread generally.

And when/whether festivals happen this year might bear a little bit of relation to the vaccine programme too

I'm grumpy because my festival season isn't looking good

 

[ice-is-forming]

This is Australias delivery strategy. I think that it'll work. Where GPs can't reach.. I think that's there's more than enough humanitarian, government, health, business, philanthropic, peer, community & charitable practises etc.. that will make it work between them.

Similar to what happens in a declared disaster here.

Spoiler: Every one mucks in

Everyone mucks in ! I'm actually a red cross volunteer who sets up & manages evacuation centres. I've been stood up for about 10 months now, not to manage evacuation centres, but to manage quarantine centres. I think in Brisbane alone there's about 3000 people in quarantine hotel, and RC are taking care of the logistics and mental health of the the event. Plus witnessing that international humanitarian law is not broken.. I haven't been activated to go because they have enough , and also I haven't volunteeed because I'm in an essential role in a regional area of Qld. Our government are discussing using empty mining camps, even Christmas island (!) rather than hotels. In some cases this is already this case, and the hotels ( the 'residents' being people who've flown into Aus) are in urban areas like Brisbane/gold coast in Qld. And are some of them complaining! And bloody hell! Thank goodness Aus put them in full quarantine otherwise a lot more of them would have it. Just search for Australia Opens Quarantine ! The Australian Open hasn't even started yet and already it has become a tour de force for players and officials A logistical nightmare for the worship of sport.

But Vacinne related, sorry for the veer off course.

WHAT I wanted to better understand is... If either of the above named vaccines are safe for someone on a DMARD ? 2hats Edie et al, please & thank you. I have searched and it just seems to be the science about it being live/not live. It's not live

The good news about the COVID-19 vaccine is that none of the vaccines that will be used in Australia are live … and theoretically they could be used in immunocompromised people," Professor Macartney said

What's this *theory" he's talking about?

Does a person who has an autoimmune disorder have to stop their immunosuppressant before having the vaccination, I'm gonna assume this is a yes. And if they do have to stop it for a while to be vaccinated, then are
they - as a person with an autoimmune disorder, on no immunosuppressents - likely to have what negative outcomes from that.

Also..

If someone's vaccinated, do they also shed/pass on a less fierce variant.

 

[Mation]

If someone's vaccinated, do they also shed/pass on a less fierce variant.

Are you asking here whether the vaccine might cause the virus to mutate into a less virulent form (variant) before it's shed/passed on, or whether the vaccine causes less shedding and therefore might result in a smaller viral load (of the same variant) passed on to someone you infect?

If the latter, I'm not sure anyone is in a position to answer that yet. The former hadn't occurred to me at all before now (and I'm certainly in no position to have any idea of an answer).

Someone who knows more than me: is it something that can happen as a result of vaccination - a vaccine accelerating mutation in the direction of reduced virulence?

 

[ice-is-forming]

Are you asking here whether the vaccine might cause the virus to mutate into a less virulent form (variant) before it's shed/passed on, or whether the vaccine causes less shedding and therefore might result in a smaller viral load (of the same variant) passed on to someone you infect.

If the latter, I'm not sure anyone is in a position to answer that yet. The former hadn't occurred to me at all before now (and I'm certainly in no position to have any idea of an answer).

Someone who knows more than me: is it something that can happen as a result of vaccination - a vaccine accelerating mutation in the direction of reduced virulence?

Both

 

[elbows]

WHAT I wanted to better understand is... If either of the above named vaccines are safe for someone on a DMARD ? 2hats Edie et al, please & thank you. I have searched and it just seems to be the science about it being live/not live. It's not live

The good news about the COVID-19 vaccine is that none of the vaccines that will be used in Australia are live … and theoretically they could be used in immunocompromised people," Professor Macartney said

What's this *theory" he's talking about?

Does a person who has an autoimmune disorder have to stop their immunosuppressant before having the vaccination, I'm gonna assume this is a yes. And if they do have to stop it for a while to be vaccinated, then are
they - as a person with an autoimmune disorder, on no immunosuppressents - likely to have what negative outcomes from that.

Also..

If someone's vaccinated, do they also shed/pass on a less fierce variant.

I would expect the theory is very much related to it not being a live vaccine, which is why you keep finding stuff about live vaccines when searching this topic. If it were a live vaccine then there would be risks that the live virus in the vaccine would have bad consequences for people with suppressed immune systems, it could be as bad for them as if they'd caught the virus itself naturally.

The fact it isnt live removes that issue, but some other issues remain. There will be some remaining theoretical risk that the vaccine could prompt an immune response that causes their underlying immune condition to flare up, or for the balance of this sytem to be effected in some way. And there will also be a great deal of uncertainty about how well the vaccine will offer protection. And thats not a simple binary question, it may still confer some protection but not as much, for example.

As for whether people stop taking their immunosuppressive drugs when being vaccinated, I'm not a doctor, but my default assumption would certainly not be a yes to that one. If a particular drug regime has balanced a persons system and managed their condition, then messing around with that is asking for trouble. Maybe the risk is deemed worth it for certain conditions but not others, I dont know. Maybe advice about what people should do if they catch something in normal times is a clue, eg if someone is on a drug regime which they are told to temporarily stop if sick, then maybe its an option to stop for a little bit when vaccinated too, but maybe not even that.

For vaccines that dont involve a live virus component, there shouldnt be any shedding of the virus because that person doesnt have the virus. Concerns about vaccine-related mutations are more about the pressure the virus in general comes under when more and more people have some immunity against it, whether that immunity was the result of a vaccine or being infected. Mutations happen all the time. If a particular mutation happens under those conditions, and the nature of the mutation means that it just happens that it can get round existing immunity, then that version of the virus ends up with a significant advantage because it can spread in groups that are immune to other versions of the virus. Aside from that major mutation phenomenon, there are other variations on this theme that can involve individuals with compromised immune systems. eg if they are infected for a very long time and have been experimentally treated with blood plasma from someone who had the virus and recovered. Under those conditions the treatment might kill other versions of the virus in their system but wont kill any versions with particular mutations that have popped up that just happen to escape the antibodies that patient received from someone elses blood. And then the patient could start shedding that version of the virus for ages and we end up with a new strain that can bypass immunity. But although vaccines could play a role in creating a similar sort of selection pressure, by forcing the wild virus to adapt to get round all the immune people it meets, this can only happen as a result of people being exposed to the virus. And they arent exposed to the virus via these non-live vaccines. So for example I have far more concerns about mutations in countries that are doing vaccination at the same time as they have so much virus spreading in the community (eg UK), than I do about countries which have managed to keep outbreaks of the virus down to a minimum (eg Australia).

 

[ice-is-forming]

Thank you elbows

 

[nyxx]

Has someone posted this article here yet?
On delaying the second dose of the vaccines:

British Medical Association says 12-week Pfizer vaccine dose gap is ‘difficult to justify’

The British Medical Association (BMA) has called on England’s Chief Medical Officer to reduce the gap between the first and second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccination, stating that it is "difficult to justify"

inews.co.uk

A lot of argument in that article seems to hinge on “no one else is doing this” - which would be much stronger if there was any detail on why other countries aren’t extending the gap in doses. But there isn’t. Can anyone give context that would give more weight to this argument?

Fwiw. To me it sounded like a dangerous step to take, but most of what I’ve read about it (including this thread) the general consensus from people who have much higher level of knowledge on this stuff seems to be along the lines of we can see the logic and what’s being balanced, it’s a bit of a gamble but looks reasonable odds, we just have to wait and see. Which is reassuring to some degree, but I’m still somewhat concerned tbh. In no small part because I don’t have that much trust that the second doses will appear / the goalposts won’t be moved again when 12 weeks comes around.

 

[nyxx]

Also
If it is a really bad idea to change the timing of the doses of the pfizer & astrazeneca vaccines, what good will it do us to know that, if we don’t have any power to change it?

 

[teuchter]

Looks like the UK has now passed the 10 doses per 100 people mark.

 

[2hats]

Moderna have published the results of a study into the efficacy of their mRNA-1273 vaccine with respect to recent variants B.1.1.7 ("UK") and B.1.351 ("South African"). DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.25.427948

In summary, it was found to be as effective against B.1.1.7 as earlier variants (D614G based) but immunity response was down six-fold against B.1.351. Moderna, state that whilst they think the response will still be effective, they are investigating the possibility of adding an additional booster dose to address waning immunity.

 

[weltweit]

I think I heard that government has found 70 odd cases of B.1.351 (SA) in the UK. They said enhanced track and trace was being used and they hoped to contain it, but 70 cases is already a lot to trace. Worries me.

 

[2hats]

I think I heard that government has found 70 odd cases of B.1.351 (SA) in the UK. They said enhanced track and trace was being used and they hoped to contain it, but 70 cases is already a lot to trace. Worries me.

Geographic distribution of B.1.351 sequenced thus far.

 

[weltweit]

Geographic distribution of B.1.351 sequenced thus far.
View attachment 251368

That looks rather more "established" than I had hoped.

 

[souljacker]

Possible good news on the effect of the vaccine from Israel. Big drop in hospitalisations for vaccinated over 60's.

Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

Full effects of Pfizer’s shots only kick in around a month after inoculation, but data from Israel shows there is a stark drop in infections even before that point

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Supine]

Merck vaccines failed

Merck Discontinues Development of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates; Continues Development of Two Investigational Therapeutic Candidates

Merck Discontinues Development of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates; Continues Development of Two Investigational Therapeutic Candidates

www.businesswire.com

 

[Wilf]

Possible good news on the effect of the vaccine from Israel. Big drop in hospitalisations for vaccinated over 60's.

Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

Full effects of Pfizer’s shots only kick in around a month after inoculation, but data from Israel shows there is a stark drop in infections even before that point

www.timesofisrael.com

I might be getting my vaccines mixed up, but wasn't the pfizer one implicated in the deaths of older people in Norway?

 

[nyxx]

I might be getting my vaccines mixed up, but wasn't the pfizer one implicated in the deaths of older people in Norway?

some detail about this here:

Covid-19: Norway investigates 23 deaths in frail elderly patients after vaccination

Doctors in Norway have been told to conduct more thorough evaluations of very frail elderly patients in line to receive the Pfizer BioNTec vaccine against covid-19, following the deaths of 23 patients shortly after receiving the vaccine. “It may be a coincidence, but we aren’t sure,” Steinar...

www.bmj.com

 

[Badgers]

Thread...

 

[William of Walworth]

I haven't time just now to (re?)-read the Lancet article linked to in James' thread, but other than that link, he does seem to be ranting rather than explaining much .....

Not quite getting this about Oxford/AstraZeneca at the moment?? I'm off to work soon, but help me out please? Cheers

 

[Supine]

Thread...

Some more digging required on this subject. Did find this very quickly

 

[Artaxerxes]

I haven't time just now to (re?)-read the Lancet article linked to in James' thread, but other than that link, he does seem to be ranting rather than explaining much .....

Not quite getting this about Oxford/AstraZeneca at the moment?? I'm off to work soon, but help me out please? Cheers

A German reporter posted a tweet and article about the vaccine only being 8% effective for over 65s but he's not actually provided any science or sources so fuck him.