Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus

[8ball]

Is there any chance that you (or someone) could link to source with a statement by that Oxford scientist, please?

I'd like to know the thinking.

Load of bollocks. Like there's any way of really assessing the probability.

 

[William of Walworth]

Good, well-explained article about premature approval of under-tested vaccines here, includes interesting quotes from experts :

'They've jumped the gun' : scientists worry about Russia's Covid-19 vaccine
Rising chorus of concern over Sputnik V vaccine stems from opaque development and lack of mass testing

ADE [antibody-dependent enhancement -- of the actual disease] “is a genuine concern”, Kevin Gilligan, a virologist and senior consultant with Biologics Consulting, told Nature Biotechnology in June. “Because if the gun is jumped and a vaccine is widely distributed that is disease-enhancing, that would be worse than actually not doing any vaccination at all.”

Not all of the [Guardian] article is as negative though -- it's worth a full read IMO -- not all that long.

 

[ska invita]

Citriodiol-based spray can help protect against Covid-19, says MoD lab

DSTL reports ‘some loss of virus’ using bug repellent, but unclear how much difference it makes

www.theguardian.com

 

[William of Walworth]

From that Guardian article (short, and mildly interesting only ) it says that the Defence Science and Technology Lab (DSTL) study [aka Porton Down!] has not been peer reviewed, and that its lead researcher wants 'others' to take it forward.

So very limited stuff -- not worthy of the Daily Sensation's headline above it, I'd say.

 

[William of Walworth]

More interesting (IMO) is this from the Guardian about the Oxford vaccine trials.

Covid-19: ‘possible’ Oxford vaccine data will be put before regulators this year

Director of group says Chris Whitty right to be cautious but hopes vaccine will be ready before winter 2021

I would especially read the bit from Prof Pollard commenting on Whitty's opinion about timing.

Prof Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said it is “just possible” that there may be enough clinical trial data on Oxford University’s Covid-19 vaccine to put before the regulators this year.
Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has said a vaccine may not be ready until next winter. Pollard suggested they were hoping to go faster.
“I think that Chris Whitty is quite rightly being cautious, that it could take as long as that to first of all demonstrate a vaccine works and is safe and then to go through the processes of regulators looking at that very carefully to make sure everything’s been done correctly,” Pollard told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“But it is also just possible [my emphasis- WoW] that, if the cases accrue rapidly in the clinical trials, that we could have that data to put before regulators this year, and then there would be a process that they go through in order to make a full assessment of the data.”
That could still mean the vaccine would not be approved this year

Still, 'not until Winter 2021' does to me sound on the very cautious side .... maybe??

(Apologies if this has been posted about already, somewhere else)

 

[zora]

Just had a listen to the latest episode of the German podcast I follow, which had as its theme a discussion about how to get through winter without lockdown.

I was surprised but heartened to hear how much stock a couple of the experts put in the availability of high quality antigen tests in the near future (in the next couple of months or so).

Pcr testing is beginning to creak at the seams now at around a million tests processed per week, with delays in test results increasing. There is also concern about availability of the necessary raw materials over the coming months.
Some people are calling for more and more testing ("all pupils", "all teachers" etc), but the capacity isn't there and apparently batch testing isn't as straightforward as lay people might think.

But the panel did seem to think that antigen tests might be able to fill this gap (the "pregnancy test"-type that people can perform at home if I understand correctly). A study is currently being conducted among teachers with weekly testing with one such antigen test.

Whilst they are not as sensitive as the pcr test, they might be sensitive enough to detect the virus when it matters most, when viral load and therefore infectiousness are at its highest. Also, the broader availability would make up for this from an epidemiological point of view.

 

[frogwoman]

A SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate would likely match all currently circulating variants

The rapid spread of the virus causing COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, raises questions about the possibility of a universally effective vaccine. The virus can mutate in a given individual, and these variants can be propagated across populations and time. To understand this process, we analyze 18,514...

www.pnas.org

An old uni friend has been working on this paper. This is really good news as a vaccine will probably be effective against all SARS-COV-2 mutations.

 

[gosub]

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis

elemental.medium.com

 

[elbows]

Theres been another study into corticosteroids and their impact. They reckon 8 lives would be saved for every 100 patients treated.

Coronavirus: Cheap steroids save lives from severe Covid

Eight lives would be saved for every 100 critically ill patients given steroids.

www.bbc.co.uk

I'm pretty sure I would have moaned once or twice on here early on about corticosteroid use, mostly because its the sort of thing that is reached for and relied on too much without suitable evidence. And some of the early evidence suggested it was making things worse rather than better. I am very pleased that subsequent evidence has shown these sorts of drugs actually having a use and reducing the deaths a bit.

 

[elbows]

It felt good to be wrong about that in this pandemic, I really want to be wrong more in future in this pandemic!

 

[Teaboy]

Promising news from Russia's sputnik vaccine. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31866-3/fulltext

With all the usual caveats about the size of study etc. Still, it shows promise in that produces antibodies and didn't appear to do much harm.

 

[frogwoman]

Shit I hope so, I've got mates there some of whom would be vulnerable.

 

[weltweit]

Astrazeneca vaccine trial halted / paused after participant contracts mystery illness.

Brazil governor says coronavirus vaccine trials promising: Live

Governor of Sao Paulo state says clinical trials of Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine has shown promising results.

www.aljazeera.com

AstraZeneca pauses COVID-19 vaccine trial over possible adverse reaction in participant

"This is a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials," an AstraZeneca spokesperson said.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Teaboy]

Sounds like 1 patient and a routine investigation. Very normal according to my friends who do this stuff for a living. Its how trials are supposed to proceed.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Trials of the Oxford vaccine are resuming.

Let's hope there's no other people becoming ill, and ideally this case is not actually caused by the vaccine, otherwise the anti-vaxxers will go to town on it.

"This pause shows we will always put safety first. We will back our scientists to deliver an effective vaccine as soon as safely possible," he added. The university said in a statement that it was "expected" that "some participants will become unwell" in large trials such as this one.

It added that the studies could now resume following the recommendations of an independent safety review committee and the UK regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency.

It would not disclose information about the patient's illness for confidentiality reasons, but the New York Times reported that a volunteer in the UK trial had been diagnosed with transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and can be caused by viral infections.

Coronavirus: Oxford University to resume vaccine trial after pause

The late-stage trials were paused due to a reported side effect in a patient in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Now this is an interesting read.

It comes as increasing evidence suggests that the amount of virus someone is exposed to at the start of infection - the “infectious dose” - may determine the severity of their illness. Indeed, a large study published in the Lancet last month found that “viral load at diagnosis” was an “independent predictor of mortality” in hospital patients.

Wearing masks could therefore reduce the infectious dose that the wearer is exposed to and, subsequently, the impact of the disease, as masks filter out some virus-containing droplets.

If this theory bears out, researchers argue, then population-wide mask wearing might ensure that a higher proportion of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic.

Does seem to make sense, and although not totally proven, there does seem to be some evidence suggesting it is the case.

While this hypothesis needs to be backed up with more clinical study, experiments in hamsters have hinted at a connection between dose and disease. Earlier this year, a team of researchers in China found that hamsters housed behind a barrier made of surgical masks were less likely to get infected by the coronavirus. And those who did contract the virus became less sick than other animals without masks to protect them.

Some observations found in humans seem to support this as well. In a coronavirus outbreak on a closed Argentinian cruise ship, for example, where passengers were provided with surgical masks and staff with N95 masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection was 81 per cent. This is compared with 20 per cent in earlier cruise ship outbreaks without universal masking.

I would recommend reading the full article.

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest

Mask wearing might also be reducing the severity of the virus and ensuring that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Badgers]

Can't vouch for the link but still

Coronavirus vaccine won’t be available to everyone before 2024 end: India's Serum Institute chief

In a big blow to the expectations regarding the covid-19 vaccine, the Serum Institute of India has said adequate coronavirus vaccine will not be available for everybody in the world to be immunised until the end of 2024. The chief executive of the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, Adar...

www.wionews.com

 

[two sheds]

Now this is an interesting read.



Does seem to make sense, and although not totally proven, there does seem to be some evidence suggesting it is the case.




I would recommend reading the full article.

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest

Mask wearing might also be reducing the severity of the virus and ensuring that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic

www.telegraph.co.uk

low-level doses of the virus as possible vaccine?

 

[Supine]

low-level doses of the virus as possible vaccine?

The 'are you feeling lucky' technique

 

[Badgers]

The 'are you feeling lucky' technique

Turd Immunity?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another possible treatment drug is going to trial.

The Oxford-based Recovery trial which proved that steroids saved the lives of some Covid patients will now take on a promising but far more expensive new antibody combination treatment, it has been announced.

A cohort of patients joining the trial in most NHS acute hospitals will be randomly allocated to Regeneron’s experimental drug, called REGN-COV2. The drug is a combination of two human neutralising antibodies against the virus. The company previously developed a similar antibody drug against Ebola.

Unlike dexamethasone, which Recovery proved saves the lives of one in eight acutely ill patients, this is a drug that has been invented for the pandemic. It has successfully come through animal studies and a phase one safety trial and is now in late stage trials in the United States.

New antibody drug joins Oxford University trial of Coronavirus treatments

Regeneron’s experimental drug REGN-COV2 to be added to UK’s Recovery trial

www.theguardian.com

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

Looks like we might be getting a vaccine pretty fucking soon. If it's rolled out for teachers in the first phase, I will take it.

 

[Teaboy]

Looks like we might be getting a vaccine pretty fucking soon. If it's rolled out for teachers in the first phase, I will take it.

Sounds promising.

 

[Wilf]

Looks like we might be getting a vaccine pretty fucking soon. If it's rolled out for teachers in the first phase, I will take it.

If that works, it would be quite amusing if Trump had to get on his hands and knees and beg China for the vaccine.

 

[William of Walworth]

Looks like we might be getting a vaccine pretty fucking soon. If it's rolled out for teachers in the first phase, I will take it.

All caveats allowed for, that does sound like there's some real possible POTENTIAL for good vaccine news before long.


My own personal vaccine against becoming overoptimistic, makes me apply emphasis to the bolded bits above

 

[William of Walworth]

Laura Spinney, author of the definitive book about the 'Spanish Flu' pandemic in 2018/2019, continues to be great!!

How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty

Scientists worldwide are working against the clock to find a viable coronavirus vaccine – but are corners being cut for the sake of political gain and profit?

 

[William of Walworth]

Here's a non-vaccine-focussed piece from her that's about further recent covid research ...


Genetic or immune defects may impair ability to fight Covid-19

Exclusive : significant proportion of severely ill people have inborn errors, study finds

 

[Wilf]

Bit of noise about getting approval by the end of the year for the Oxford vaccine, some of which are random media reports that have more sober assessment when you get past the headlines. For those in the know, does this suggest they are actually seeing interim results showing it does protect the test subjects? I do know how double blind tests work, was just wondering if there's been anything suggesting the thing does actually deliver?

 

[Wilf]

Bit of noise about getting approval by the end of the year for the Oxford vaccine, some of which are random media reports that have more sober assessment when you get past the headlines. For those in the know, does this suggest they are actually seeing interim results showing it does protect the test subjects? I do know how double blind tests work, was just wondering if there's been anything suggesting the thing does actually deliver?

well, this doesn't help:

MSN

 

[Supine]

Bit of noise about getting approval by the end of the year for the Oxford vaccine, some of which are random media reports that have more sober assessment when you get past the headlines. For those in the know, does this suggest they are actually seeing interim results showing it does protect the test subjects? I do know how double blind tests work, was just wondering if there's been anything suggesting the thing does actually deliver?

Don't know about that. Last I saw was this which was published today.

As more than a half-dozen pharma companies race to develop vaccines to fight COVID-19, AstraZeneca has stood out for its pledge that it won’t try to profit off its shot until after the pandemic ends.

Now, the company may be walking back that vow a bit.

AstraZeneca could declare the pandemic over as early as July 2021, according to a memo of understanding obtained by the Financial Times between the company and a Brazilian manufacturer. The pandemic period might be extended if AstraZeneca determines it’s not over, the memo said.

How will AstraZeneca make that determination? The company isn’t long on details. It will “seek expert guidance, including from global organizations,” a company spokesperson said.

The spokesperson did not confirm the existence of the memo, but said in a statement that the company's approach is to treat the COVID-19 vaccine “as a response to a global public health emergency, not a commercial opportunity.”
In July, AstraZeneca told Fierce Pharma it would price the vaccine “to support broad and equitable access around the world," and the company’s executive vice president of biopharmaceuticals R&D, Mene Pangalos, said in a prepared statement that under supply agreements formed at that time the company would derive no profit. That statement was prepared for a congressional hearing.
Johnson & Johnson, which is also working on a COVID-19 vaccine, has joined AstraZeneca in the no-profit pledge, but other companies haven’t been so enthusiastic about the prospect of not making a return on their investments in helping end the pandemic.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, for example, said in July that the notion of vaccine developers forgoing profits on COVID-19 vaccines was “very fanatic and radical,” and the company expects to make a “marginal” profit on its vaccine.

AstraZeneca, which is developing its COVID-19 vaccine with the University of Oxford, has been locking up supply deals to meet what it expects to be a demand for 3 billion doses. Most recently, it formed a $60 million, three-year deal with Oxford Biomedica to reserve vaccine manufacturing space at three sites. Oxford Biomedica nabbed U.K. approval for a fourth vaccine manufacturing site earlier this week.

The creation of multiple supply chains for the COVID-19 vaccine will “ensure access is timely, broad and equitable for high and low income countries alike,” the spokesperson said.

AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine effort has been anything but smooth, however. The clinical trial of the vaccine was paused over safety concerns stemming from the British study, in which one patient suffered spinal cord damage. British regulators quickly resumed the trial there, but it’s still on hold in the U.S. as the National Institutes of Health completes an investigation