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Political polling

Should have said, with the usual caveats etc....that it will be interesting to see how much any other polling this weekend supports the possible polling trends that might be expected from this tumultuous week for Johnson and the tory party.
Con down at the expense of BP might have been the most obvious guess, I suppose?
 
i not sure polling can tell us much about how the election is going to play out until the election is on and we know where we are wrt EU extensions.
It might be that corbyns seeming "rehabilitation" within the more liberal media will push labours numbers up - and when it comes to the crunch, many of those pearl clutching liberal remainers will vote labour rather than risk johnson. Labour and Corbyn may repeat 2017 feat of benefiting from more and more balanced tv coverage.
Also difficult to assess is how the brexit party will do and who they will hurt most. In 2015 we expected ukip to take a bite out of the tory vote - but they hurt labour more. Could that happen again?
And the lib dem revival will very likely hit the tories.
PLus the potential of enhanced tactical voting - anti tory and remain voters are younger, more social media motivated so this could have a pronounced effect.
Also - tories could get wiped out in scotland
Basically a lot of dynamic variables at play.
We could very well be back with a hung parliament, tories largest party - but unable to form a government. Corbyn resigns? Johnson gets the boot?
And another election in spring 2020!

eat up your "fuck knows?!?!" stew folks
 
Kaka Tim said:
i not sure polling can tell us much about how the election is going to play out until the election is on and we know where we are wrt EU extensions.
It might be that corbyns seeming "rehabilitation" within the more liberal media will push labours numbers up - and when it comes to the crunch, many of those pearl clutching liberal remainers will vote labour rather than risk johnson. Labour and Corbyn may repeat 2017 feat of benefiting from more and more balanced tv coverage.
Also difficult to assess is how the brexit party will do and who they will hurt most. In 2015 we expected ukip to take a bite out of the tory vote - but they hurt labour more. Could that happen again?
And the lib dem revival will very likely hit the tories.
PLus the potential of enhanced tactical voting - anti tory and remain voters are younger, more social media motivated so this could have a pronounced effect.
Also - tories could get wiped out in scotland
Basically a lot of dynamic variables at play.
We could very well be back with a hung parliament, tories largest party - but unable to form a government. Corbyn resigns? Johnson gets the boot?
And another election in spring 2020!

eat up your "fuck knows?!?!" stew folks
Click to expand...
Not sure I totally agree that polling is unlikely to tell us much until the campaign. With Brexit, Parliament and party politics so dominant as the headline topic across all media (including the tabloids) it's got to be the case that pollsters should be able to pick up any moving sentiment, irrespective of the GE actually being called?
 
Labour will really have to drill down into that libdem support, which you'd expect it to in an actual election period tbf as people polling libdem in seats that are straight choice between tory and lab switch, but then that brexit 10+ is there for tories to take too, it's the combined polling of tories and brexit party that's frighteneing
 
Tories seem to be falling apart more every day. Polls won’t have quite caught up with that yet, a couple of days ago the tories still seemed to have some gravity but resignations are making a mess and taking valuable headlines away from the magic money tree stuff Javid was throwing about.
 
Mr Moose said:
Well, despite being extraordinarily shit, the Tories continue to lead. Useless Brexit holding them in place for now.
Click to expand...

With the exception of the latest yougov poll, the polls are seeing movement against the Tories, esp. the 2 asking for voting intentions if the GE happens after 31/10/19, which looks highly likely ATM, 1 puts them tied with Labour, 1 gives Labour a lead of 2% - and that's before this latest news!

1.png
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
 
Survation was the one almost spot on at the last GE, putting the Tories on a 1% lead, compared with the 2.5% they got.
 
killer b said:
This weekend's polls are inconclusive to say the least on public reaction to recent Westminster maneuvers - take your pick:









Click to expand...



If can see a slight flaw : if we are not having an election, and we are leaving and then we are having as election (I think that's where we're at:hmm:, then why are Brexit polling in the teens? what are Brexit party voters voting for post Brexit?
 
gosub said:
If can see a slight flaw : if we are not having an election, and we are leaving and then we are having as election (I think that's where we're at:hmm:, then why are Brexit polling in the teens? what are Brexit party voters voting for post Brexit?
Click to expand...

Brexit is just the withdrawal stage, there’s a deal to be done afterwards in the transition phase, presumably BP will still exist to try and shape this in whatever Farage’s paymasters want it to be shaped.
 
From Sky’s Sam Coates


Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

Exc: No10 has seen polling that means if there was an election now, Boris Johnson would do worse than Theresa May, according to Jason Stein, who was a Tory special advisor and Amber Rudd aide until Saturday night

Here’s what he told me for a Sky News interview:

Click to expand...

It sounds logical to me.
 
I think we can assume, after the success of Yougov's MRP model in the run up to the 2017 election, that all three main parties are running their own private MRP models. I've seen speculation that the Lib Dem's decision to run Umunna in London & Westminster - where they were a distant third in 2017 - is based on their MRP model.
 
Its the problem with FPTP . Just because they are polling OK doesn't mean it will translate into seats. I've seen the figure of 60 seats the tories will have to win if they want a comfortable majority. This is allowing for the seats they will lose in Scotland and metropolitan areas.

That's a lot of seats and with the Brexit Party spoiling its not going to be easy.
 
I don't know whether this is real or some kind of last-ditch attempt to get Labour to vote for an election this evening, but

 
Teaboy said:
Its the problem with FPTP . Just because they are polling OK doesn't mean it will translate into seats. I've seen the figure of 60 seats the tories will have to win if they want a comfortable majority. This is allowing for the seats they will lose in Scotland and metropolitan areas.

That's a lot of seats and with the Brexit Party spoiling its not going to be easy.
Click to expand...

Presumably they've now got to run two dozen nobodies in what were until recently tory seats with established MPs as well. That's going to have non-zero effect on tory fortunes.
 
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