Political polling

[Rimbaud]

Worth bearing in mind that while Reform are benefiting from Tory collapse, they too share the same problem of their vote being concentrated amongst elderly voters.

Amongst the under 50s Reform are just as unpopular as the Tories (12% vs 10% for 25-50, 5% vs 4% for under 25%).

The UK isn't comparable to EU countries voting far-right because we have a longer history of mass immigration and younger people especially are basically used to it. Plus we already know that the sky didn't collapsed just because London is only 42% British born. Far-right voters in mainland Europe seem convinced that mass immigration will destroy the fabric of their society but we already know that didn't happen.

It is possible that after this election they will become the focus of dark right wing forces in the US and Russia trying to boost their support through social media manipulation, but I think there's a limit to that. Far right social media success with the youth in Anglosphere countries has been limited to convincing men who can't get a girlfriend to blame feminism and wokeness but has been less successful on issues around race and immigration.

Edit: plus the obvious point that Reform are the Continuity Brexit Party so are associated with a failed and unpopular policy from the offset.

Today's YG (fieldwork 10th & 11th) has vermin 5th, yes fifth, placed party in the under 50s:

View attachment 428758

 

[Dogsauce]

View attachment 428826

Something weird going on here eh. I mean there's Reform rising but Labour seem to be trending downwards week on week

To my eyes, Farage is sucking votes from Labour, not the Tories. And I bet that’s where they’re concentrating their dark money right now, just like Brexit. Lib dems might be taking in Tory voters who won’t vote Labour because of the school fees thing.

 

[tim]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the connection between the LDs and tution fees. In British culture some connections stick and others fade - Thatcher with milk, Blair and Iraq, Clegg with tuition fees, Major's cone hotline....

I doubt that YouGov, should they do a poll, would find many in the 18-34 age range would have much knowledge of John Major or the Cones Hotline.

Personally being in an older demographic. I remember him as the man who took Boris Yeltsin to the pub and gave us all CJD.

 

[strung out]

To my eyes, Farage is sucking votes from Labour, not the Tories. And I bet that’s where they’re concentrating their dark money right now, just like Brexit. Lib dems might be taking in Tory voters who won’t vote Labour because of the school fees thing.

Reform voters are almost overwhelmingly coming from 2019 Conservative voters at a ratio of something like 12:1 compared to Labour.

Useful graphic here:

 

[Dogsauce]

Reform voters are almost overwhelmingly coming from 2019 Conservative voters at a ratio of something like 12:1 compared to Labour.

Useful graphic here:

View attachment 428858

Fair play. Just a bit worried that there is a mass of people that polling isn’t reaching, and who will be motivated by immigration/‘wokeness’ scare stories again. It’s like that thing like in 2015 where we assumed Labour would win because UKIP would fuck the Tory vote, I think I’m still carrying the trauma of that exit poll announcement.

The Reform crossover is also concerning if it appears they are the vehicle for the anti-Labour vote and suck in people from that, even though anyone who looked at the detail would see that doesn’t work. Maybe it will fuck the Tories more. Maybe it’s a high watermark for the far right in the UK and won’t be a stepping stone to bigger stuff, but the examples in Europe (Le Pen etc.) don’t give me confidence.

If they do get some seats, I’m hoping Farage is soundly defeated but they get a select few complete loon cases who are quickly exposed as cranks and racists, embarrass the brand and inevitably leave/split to form some new faction.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Reform voters are almost overwhelmingly coming from 2019 Conservative voters at a ratio of something like 12:1 compared to Labour.

Useful graphic here:

View attachment 428858

To my eye from the recent polls it's more like their base vote has overwhelmingly come from the 2019 Conservatives, but now (over the last 2 weeks or so - the Farage Effect?) with each passing poll they're consistently adding a point or 2, reflected by a Labour drop of a point or 2.

 

[brogdale]

Only 1 major pollster left showing current vermin number > than final Truss numbers:

 

[ska invita]

I would love to think that is true. Hopefully it will be.

But sadly I am not sure that random dreg bigots (we should adopt that term on here, maybe abbreviate it to RDBs? ) bother a lot of people that much. I mean look at what a grifter Farage is, and he's hugely popular in many circles, who believe he talks common sense, speaks for the working man and is someone you'd have a pint with.

One of the RDBs has called all women "the sponge gender" and a drain on society. I can't see this being a vote winner. But it is possible Reform will professionalise and vet more as it goes, and crucially attract trad Tory types and trad Tory money.

But I find it very hard to imagine that Tories will evaporate into thin air. This is the core party of the British establishment and the roots run deep within so many institutions. They see themselves as the ancient regime , born to rule, and I'm sure many look down on Reform as oiks.

Hard to know the future but right now it's looking like the perfect split and pull in two directions.

More likely I think is that the Labour vote will be equally split when some kind of left alternative properly fills that space in the near -mid future.

I feel like we're moving towards multi party coalition PR politics without actually having a PR system.

Also worth remembering despite Reform vote share being so close to the Tories last I looked they were predicted to win zero seats.

 

[brogdale]

Worth noting this morning that last night's YG RefUKer>Vermin numbers is, as yet, just 1 poll suggesting cross-over for second place; all of the poll tracker averages still have the vermin around 20%ish and the Falangists on 14%ish. Of course, if more polls come in at cross-over, those trackers will change.

 

[Silas Loom]

Putting this here as there’s no poll like an actual vote.

Greenwich council by-election last night where the Tory majority went up significantly. Maybe the “Khan will steal your cars” stuff really does work in the fringes of the outer London boroughs without having been visible in the large mayoral constituencies, but will have an impact in July. My Tory incumbent in Chipping Barnet is beating that drum incessantly - I thought she was mad, but perhaps some private polling supports her.

Tories get poll boost after winning Greenwich Council by-election - The Greenwich Wire

The Conservatives won the Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham by-election last night - lifting the party’s general election hopes in Eltham & Chislehurst.

greenwichwire.co.uk

Mottingham, Coldharbour and New Eltham (ward) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[bluescreen]

I always think of the LDs as dog killers, personally, but the youth of today probably just associate them with watersports now.

Dog killers? Like the Reliant Robin, you mean?

 

[cupid_stunt]

you gov changed their methodology after 27 june which produced a lower labour figure. But quite a few polls since have shown a drop in labour votes share - seemingly to the benefit of the lib dems - although refuk might be taking a bite as well.

It was actually at the end of May, and this new methodology has raised an eyebrow with me, every yougov poll since have Labour's share lower than all other polls published around the same time, they may be right, but I have my doubts, it's not as if they have a great record on GE polling.*

Worth noting this morning that last night's YG RefUKer>Vermin numbers is, as yet, just 1 poll suggesting cross-over for second place; all of the poll tracker averages still have the vermin around 20%ish and the Falangists on 14%ish. Of course, if more polls come in at cross-over, those trackers will change.

It's bloody annoying, as it's allowed Farage to come out with bollocks like Reform is now the main opposition, and a vote for the Tories is a vote for Labour, and some people will be dumb enough to swallow that. At least Sky keeps pointing out it's only one poll, although I wish they would go further and highlight yougov's poor track record*, I don't get why they are commissioned to do polls so much, when there're better options, such as Survation.

*
In 2015, yougov had it as a tie, Survation had the Tories on 6%, the result was 6.6%.
In 2017, yougov had the Tories on 7%, Survation had the Tories on 1%, the result was 2.5%.
In 2019, yougov had the Tories on 9%, Survation had the Tories on 11%, the GB result was 11.7%.

- They got it nearest in 2019, but that was a MRP poll with a massive sample of 105k people, so should have been far more accurate than Survation's sample of 2.4k, but wasn't, their track record is not good at all.

Spoiler: *Graphs from those years.

List of current polling -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

 

[StoneRoad]

Electoral calculus :-

Prediction: Con 80, Lab 461, Lib Dem 63, SNP 20, Labour majority of 272​

General Election Prediction

and BBC's "Poll Tracker"

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare?

How do people say they will vote in the UK general election? Our poll tracker measures the trends.

www.bbc.co.uk

My main concern atm is refuk's apparent popularity !

 

[strung out]

To my eye from the recent polls it's more like their base vote has overwhelmingly come from the 2019 Conservatives, but now (over the last 2 weeks or so - the Farage Effect?) with each passing poll they're consistently adding a point or 2, reflected by a Labour drop of a point or 2.

I think some of the polling companies have explained that by the fact that as the pool of undecided respondents (who are overwhelmingly 2019 conservative voters) falls, and those people make up their mind to vote Reform, it drops the vote shares of parties who aren’t in receipt of those undecideds. This, coupled with Labour > Lib Dem tactical switchers as people realise that far more Tory seats are in play than first realised.

I think the number of Labour > Reform switchers has still been measured as being very low, because people who were extremely concerned about immigration weren’t voting Labour to begin with.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[PR1Berske]

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[PR1Berske]

 

[Wilf]

Just while we are doing comparisons, Ratboy's Tories are actually polling lower than the Lettuce person's Tory Party.

 

[brogdale]

Extrapolating the trends on the poll trackers (roughly by beer affected eye ) sees cross-over on or about June 21st

 

[brogdale]

Just while we are doing comparisons, Ratboy's Tories are actually polling lower than the Lettuce person's Tory Party.

More tax cuts needed!

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Worth bearing in mind that while Reform are benefiting from Tory collapse, they too share the same problem of their vote being concentrated amongst elderly voters.

Amongst the under 50s Reform are just as unpopular as the Tories (12% vs 10% for 25-50, 5% vs 4% for under 25%).

The UK isn't comparable to EU countries voting far-right because we have a longer history of mass immigration and younger people especially are basically used to it. Plus we already know that the sky didn't collapsed just because London is only 42% British born. Far-right voters in mainland Europe seem convinced that mass immigration will destroy the fabric of their society but we already know that didn't happen.

It is possible that after this election they will become the focus of dark right wing forces in the US and Russia trying to boost their support through social media manipulation, but I think there's a limit to that. Far right social media success with the youth in Anglosphere countries has been limited to convincing men who can't get a girlfriend to blame feminism and wokeness but has been less successful on issues around race and immigration.

Edit: plus the obvious point that Reform are the Continuity Brexit Party so are associated with a failed and unpopular policy from the offset.

I think something they will struggle with as the UK's new crank/far-right party is that as you say - they're nowhere with young people and in Scotland. And no Farage vehicle ever will be, and Farage can't even get deposed by a slick young fashy in a suit because Reform UK is a company that he owns and not a proper political party.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Worth bearing in mind that while Reform are benefiting from Tory collapse, they too share the same problem of their vote being concentrated amongst elderly voters.

Amongst the under 50s Reform are just as unpopular as the Tories (12% vs 10% for 25-50, 5% vs 4% for under 25%).

The UK isn't comparable to EU countries voting far-right because we have a longer history of mass immigration and younger people especially are basically used to it. Plus we already know that the sky didn't collapsed just because London is only 42% British born. Far-right voters in mainland Europe seem convinced that mass immigration will destroy the fabric of their society but we already know that didn't happen.

It is possible that after this election they will become the focus of dark right wing forces in the US and Russia trying to boost their support through social media manipulation, but I think there's a limit to that. Far right social media success with the youth in Anglosphere countries has been limited to convincing men who can't get a girlfriend to blame feminism and wokeness but has been less successful on issues around race and immigration.

Edit: plus the obvious point that Reform are the Continuity Brexit Party so are associated with a failed and unpopular policy from the offset.

I think something they will struggle with as the UK's new crank/far-right party is that as you say - they're nowhere with young people and in Scotland. And no Farage vehicle ever will be, and Farage can't even get deposed by a slick young fashy in a suit because Reform UK is a company that he owns and not a proper political party.

 

[ska invita]

Just saw on what looks an untrustworthy twitter post that Reform predicted to win 30 seats. I presume bullshit. But had anyone seen any serious prediction of how many seats they might win?

 

[strung out]

Just saw on what looks an untrustworthy twitter post that Reform predicted to win 30 seats. I presume bullshit. But had anyone seen any serious prediction of how many seats they might win?

The MRPs all have them predicted to win between 0 and 5.

Edit: just checked and actually they all have them at either 0 or 1. Maybe slightly more now the polls have moved.

 

[Elpenor]

Good to have you back posting btw strung out hope the running still going well (for another thread )

 

[strung out]

Good to have you back posting btw strung out hope the running still going well (for another thread )

Cheers, been trying to spend less time online, but the election and U75’s high quality commentary on it has dragged me back temporarily

Will update the exercise thread!

 

[brogdale]

Whitestone offering up a 2k (weighted) sample poll (12 & 13 June 2024) presented by age cohort:



Has a more realistic feel than that headline grabbing YG poll, because it looks more like the poll tracker numbers but, who knows?

 

[Balbi]

Shows that even with a Labour majority, the vote split between Tories and Reform from 45+ is whats driving this - reunite those two sections and Labour end up in trouble again in 2029.

 

[Silas Loom]

Shows that even with a Labour majority, the vote split between Tories and Reform from 45+ is whats driving this - reunite those two sections and Labour end up in trouble again in 2029.

Although quite a lot of them will be dead, of course.

 

[brogdale]

Shows that even with a Labour majority, the vote split between Tories and Reform from 45+ is whats driving this - reunite those two sections and Labour end up in trouble again in 2029.

Yes, but such a post-GE reunification of the right looks highly unlikely as of now; a 'bloodbath' of splitting, recrimination and blame looks favourite tbh