Political polling

[Dogsauce]

Seat calculator thing gives this outcome based on those numbers:


Some odd seat specific outcomes with these numbers, Sheffield Hallam goes back to lib dem (!), Reform takes Rochdale (says from Labour, based on 2019 result, but presumably Galloway?).

Tories out under this scenario include Shapps, Badenoch, Dorries, Grayling, Cleverly, Javid, Duncan-Smith, Raab, Hunt, Halfron, Hollobone, Fabricant, Jenkyns, Jenrick, Truss, Mordaunt, Sharma, Rosindell (please!), Rees-Mogg, Fox, Kwartang, Philip Davies, Gullis, McVey, Redwood, Bottomley…

Again, this is based on 2019 winners, and I’m aware some are retiring, but still look forward to the YouTube compilation of their defeated faces at the count set to appropriate music.

 

[belboid]

Sheffield Hallam goes back to lib dem (!),

Hallam is one of the two seats Labour are worried about losing (along with Bristol Central). It is a risky one, the tories will very likely all fold into the Libscum vote. If it weren't for Gaza I'd say the swing to Labour would be enough to save the seat, but, Gaza.... They'll lose quite a few to the Greens, though Olivia Blake herself has been very good. Hopefully student hatred of the Libs will be enough to save her arse.

 

[Rimbaud]

Fascinating - Tories, Lib Dems and Reform all within 3% of each other, including Greens you have 4 Parties within 10% of each other.

And in what is typically a 2 Party system, 44% of people don't want to vote for either of the 2 big parties. A big change from the 2017 election where only 17.7% supported parties other than Labour and Tory and 2019 when it was 24.4%.

That poll has convinced me to take July 5th as annual leave to stay up and watch the results with a couple of friends, could be a very interesting election. I think there is still a possibility that the Tory vote may sink further and the expected Labour vote may suffer from low turnout due to Starmer's uninspiring leadership.

Dream outcomes for me which are unlikely but within the realms of possibility:

Tories come in 4th place in seats after Lib Dems and SNP, and 4th in popular vote after Lib Dems and Reform.

Labour win but Starmer gets fewer votes in absolute numbers than Corbyn even in 2019 and fails to win an overall majority.

Greens win at least 3 seats and take 10% of the popular vote.

Lib Dems agree to coalition on the condition of a referendum on PR.

 

[kebabking]

Electoral calculus are predicting, for the first time, that my constituency will go Labour.

Currently a 20k Tory majority, uptil now they've been predicting that majority dropping down to the hundreds/low thousand.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Electoral Calculus now predicting Wokingham will go lib-dem





and that's after boundary changes which have moved some of the more libdem / labour voting bits out of the constituency, and moved more of the tory voting rural bits of current maidenhead constituency in.

john redwood is standing down - as i've said before, that could help the tory vote or lose the 'incumbent' advantage. new tory candidate is fairly unknown in the area, not local, and didn't get off to a great start after her first weekend canvassing here when she posted something on tweeter about being in woking...

(woking is in surrey not berkshire, and is about 16 miles away)

and while the lib dems are putting the usual 'two horse race, labour can't win here' stuff out, wonder if there will be more tactical voting if labour voters think it might actually happen this time...

 

[Balbi]

Electoral Calculus now predicting Wokingham will go lib-dem

View attachment 428564



and that's after boundary changes which have moved some of the more libdem / labour voting bits out of the constituency, and moved more of the tory voting rural bits of current maidenhead constituency in.

john redwood is standing down - as i've said before, that could help the tory vote or lose the 'incumbent' advantage. new tory candidate is fairly unknown in the area, not local, and didn't get off to a great start after her first weekend canvassing here when she posted something on tweeter about being in woking...

(woking is in surrey not berkshire, and is about 16 miles away)

and while the lib dems are putting the usual 'two horse race, labour can't win here' stuff out, wonder if there will be more tactical voting if labour voters think it might actually happen this time...

John Redwood can't even be an MP any more, because of Woke-ingham

 

[brogdale]

Just a 12% Labour lead over vermin...but look closely at that sample cohort.....

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just a 12% Labour lead over vermin...but look closely at that sample cohort.....

View attachment 428667

This is an odd one from Redfield & Wilton, their previous polls have been near to what other polling companies have come up with, I suspect this is a serious outlier, to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.

 

[brogdale]

This is an odd one from Redfield & Wilton, their previous polls have been near to what other polling companies have come up with, I suspect this is a serious outlier, to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.

look again

 

[cupid_stunt]

look again

Look again at what?

 

[mx wcfc]

Look again at what?

The second line.....

 

[brogdale]

Look again at what?

 

[cupid_stunt]

View attachment 428669

Pointless posting it then.

 

[brogdale]

Pointless posting it then.

I posted it because I thought that a 12% L>C lead amongst those respondents citing the Mail as their primary news source was actually quite a significant polling finding, but each to their own.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I posted it because I thought that a 12% L>C lead amongst those respondents citing the Mail as their primary news source was actually quite a significant polling finding, but each to their own.

Not really, their primary news source maybe the Mail, but every Mail readers will also view other news sources, they can't all be blind to what's going on. I know Mail readers that are Labour voters, I have no idea why they buy the Mail, probably out of habit.

In other shocking news, not all Sun readers are Tories, although I suspect most Telegraph readers are.

 

[Voley]

Electoral Calculus predicting that Derek Thomas, the Tory in St Ives, will be routed fairly conclusively. Lib Dems have an 87% chance of winning, according to this.

I wonder if we'll be viewed as a marginal after this. Looking more like a safe LD seat if this is even vaguely right.

New Seat Details - St Ives

 

[brogdale]

Not really, their primary news source maybe the Mail, but every Mail readers will also view other news sources, they can't all be blind to what's going on. I know Mail readers that are Labour voters, I have no idea why they buy the Mail, probably out of habit.

In other shocking news, not all Sun readers are Tories, although I suspect most Telegraph readers are.

Fair enough.
I admit that it would be better to have the context of previous cohort polling to compare but, on the face of it, it looked significant.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Fair enough.
I admit that it would be better to have the context of previous cohort polling to compare but, on the face of it, it looked significant.

It's a very weird poll, I don't recall any polls ever selecting their sample in such a way.

 

[brogdale]

It's a very weird poll, I don't recall any polls ever selecting their sample in such a way.

No, others do it too, certainly YG

 

[Puddy_Tat]

It's a very weird poll, I don't recall any polls ever selecting their sample in such a way.

was it a poll that was just for daily mail readers, or sub-dividing people who responded to a poll? some polls will show an overall percentage, then show percentages (of the same sample) by age group, or region, or gender, or whatever else they can think of

 

[lazythursday]

It's a very weird poll, I don't recall any polls ever selecting their sample in such a way.

If you look at the Redfield and Wilton twitter feed they've released these polls for every media source under the sun this afternoon. Labour leads significantly in all of them, apart from GB News, which is Reform UK 60%, Conservative 16%, Labour 13%

 

[brogdale]

was it a poll that was just for daily mail readers, or sub-dividing people who responded to a poll? some polls will show an overall percentage, then show percentages (of the same sample) by age group, or region, or gender, or whatever else they can think of

Yep, cross-breaks from larger sample

 

[cupid_stunt]

If you look at the Redfield and Wilton twitter feed they've released these polls for every media source under the sun this afternoon. Labour leads significantly in all of them, apart from GB News, which is Reform UK 60%, Conservative 16%, Labour 13%

LOL @ the GB News figures.

brogdale, it would be handy rather than just posting screenshots, you could include a link behind a spoiler tag. There's been a few times I would have liked to have click to view more, but I couldn't be arsed to go searching on twitter, this occasion has actually brought it to a head.

 

[brogdale]

Today's YG (fieldwork 10th & 11th) has vermin 5th, yes fifth, placed party in the under 50s:

 

[Silas Loom]

Hallam is one of the two seats Labour are worried about losing (along with Bristol Central). It is a risky one, the tories will very likely all fold into the Libscum vote. If it weren't for Gaza I'd say the swing to Labour would be enough to save the seat, but, Gaza.... They'll lose quite a few to the Greens, though Olivia Blake herself has been very good. Hopefully student hatred of the Libs will be enough to save her arse.

Students of this era surely don’t associate the LDs with tuition fee treachery, do they?

 

[Bingoman]

Today's YG (fieldwork 10th & 11th) has vermin 5th, yes fifth, placed party in the under 50s:

View attachment 428758

Does that mean that the Tory vote has well and truly collapsed

 

[Silas Loom]

Does that mean that the Tory vote has well and truly collapsed

Not unless you’ve heard something the rest of us haven’t about a rapid rollout Logan’s Run policy targeting the over-50s. Which would be bad news for almost all of us.

 

[brogdale]

Does that mean that the Tory vote has well and truly collapsed

Not quite that simple, I'm afraid.


Source

 

[brogdale]

This evening's R&W poll is just 1% away from vermin/RefUker cross-over:

 

[Balbi]

Yougov has it happening.