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Political polling

Interesting that the first few "post-Farage" polls have got Reform up by a good few (as expected), but seemingly more at the expense of Labour than the Tories.

The conservatives just seem stuck at 19-23ish. We're down to the 'would vote for a badly trained gibbon with a blue rosette' rump; even they are struggling to go lower, and they sure as hell aren't picking any up.
Apparently when you delve into the detail it's not really at the expense of Labour. Switchers to Reform are almost all Conservatives.
 


This is national polling, and swings are likely to vary between seats, but just for fun I put those figures into the electoral calculus site.

View attachment 428129

That would leave the LDs as the official opposition, with their 44 seats beating the Tories on just 37.

Just watch as we're about to see electoral reform suddenly become an issue on the right of politics.
 
On this polling the lib Dems would be the official opposition and Sunak would lose his seat too

24 seats for the vermin!

I mean I love reading stuff like this, but just get the feeling that it’ll lead to me feeling massively disappointed when they just about scrape three figures, when that would actually still be a pretty good outcome.

To add - if they did end up as low as 24 seats, imagine the squabbling over leadership. They’d only need five letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a contest, it’d become a weekly occurrence.
 
Electoral Calculus is notoriously weak with extreme figures and particularly dealing with, eg, Reform. There's very little realism once a certain percentage point is reached because their algorithm struggles with unprecedented swings.

The Economist "spread" was rather wild by covering their arses a little too well, though there is some truth in it still being difficult to fathom what FPTP will do in extreme circumstances. The Tories could go down to 90-100. They could still make 200.
 
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