lazythursday
Well-Known Member
Apparently when you delve into the detail it's not really at the expense of Labour. Switchers to Reform are almost all Conservatives.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Demographically a lot of Reform voters will be brown bread.
not a trot
Well-Known Member
ska invita
back on the other side
Lol
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
innit?((((History))))
burtabraham
Active Member
As I’ve said before this is why Starmer is basically pitching himself as offering more or less the same policies but delivered more competently
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
This is national polling, and swings are likely to vary between seats, but just for fun I put those figures into the electoral calculus site.
That would leave the LDs as the official opposition, with their 44 seats beating the Tories on just 37.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Just watch as we're about to see electoral reform suddenly become an issue on the right of politics.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
50% figure for Labour?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
On this polling the lib Dems would be the official opposition and Sunak would lose his seat too
Election Prediction
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
24 seats for the vermin!
I mean I love reading stuff like this, but just get the feeling that it’ll lead to me feeling massively disappointed when they just about scrape three figures, when that would actually still be a pretty good outcome.
To add - if they did end up as low as 24 seats, imagine the squabbling over leadership. They’d only need five letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a contest, it’d become a weekly occurrence.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Electoral Calculus is notoriously weak with extreme figures and particularly dealing with, eg, Reform. There's very little realism once a certain percentage point is reached because their algorithm struggles with unprecedented swings.
The Economist "spread" was rather wild by covering their arses a little too well, though there is some truth in it still being difficult to fathom what FPTP will do in extreme circumstances. The Tories could go down to 90-100. They could still make 200.
The Economist "spread" was rather wild by covering their arses a little too well, though there is some truth in it still being difficult to fathom what FPTP will do in extreme circumstances. The Tories could go down to 90-100. They could still make 200.
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
This from electoral calculas so take with a pinch of salt and would make the Lib Dems official opposition
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Was going to say something about (national) cross-over being imminent, but then I saw this Economist funded constituency level polling (sample 448 = quite respectable at constituency level)...clearly crossover has well and truly happened already in some areas:
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