Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Even with this very low 37% in this single yougov poll, Labour is still polling around 3% higher than at this point in the 2017 GE, not lower.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
In the actual 2017 GE, not polling, the LP took 40% of the vote share.
Even with this very low 37% in this single yougov poll, Labour is still polling around 3% higher than at this point in the 2017 GE, not lower.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
A chalk & cheese comparison, based on a single polling company coming up with a Labour share well below the other polls.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
The Labour share is dropping because some of their voters have now worked out exactly where they need to vote LD tactically to ensure an even greater Tory loss. Comparisons with 2017 are ridiculous.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
It's very common, basic psephological analysis to compare parties' % of total vote over time; hardly ridiculous. For instance it's also fair to say that Shammer's present YG % is 5% higher than Corbyn's 2019 GE vote share. Perhaps the greatest difference between the 2017 and 2024 LP polling is that the former saw consistently rising polling, whereas, it appears that as the present campaign progresses, Shammer's polling appears to be falling.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with the connection between the LDs and tution fees. In British culture some connections stick and others fade - Thatcher with milk, Blair and Iraq, Clegg with tuition fees, Major's cone hotline....
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
It does rather prove my point about LD and Lab share shifting when less-engaged voters look at their constituency predictions.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Shedding votes to LDs, Greens & RefUKers
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
I always think of the LDs as dog killers, personally, but the youth of today probably just associate them with watersports now.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
you gov changed their methodology after 27 june which produced a lower labour figure. But quite a few polls since have shown a drop in labour votes share - seemingly to the benefit of the lib dems - although refuk might be taking a bite as well.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Could also be that repeated exposure to Shammer's empty nothingness is beginning to repel
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
His personal ratings are improving. Sunak’s tanking, obvs.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Certainly better than rat-boy's, but at net -12 that's remarkably low for an initial incoming PM according to these Ipsos MORI numbers:
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Those were on taking office, though, right? I expect Starmer will get a hand-kissing bounce.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, last net favourability number before assuming office.
Not convinced Shammer will get a bounce, tbh.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
I mean, I hate the Tories as much as the next good Urbanite, but to me this is terrifying.
We are, potentially, one term of a weak Labour administration away from a fascist government.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
This is perhaps where the state "apparatus" might actually come in handy (what did Liz say about shadowy forces?). One thing our corridors of power are quite good at is keeping certain possibilities at bay. It's notable, to me at least, how immune this country has been from toppling of the Royals, let alone the takeover of government by actual fascists. Hardliners, yes, beyond that, no.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
You mean like a sort of reverse 'A Very British Coup'?
One problem (generally, not with what you're saying) is that a huge number of people don't see Reform UK as fascist.
ska invita
back on the other side
there is a peak number of people prepared to vote Reform
likewise there is a rock bottom for Tories
ideally this split vote we see now is the order of things for a good while
im not convinced reform can go that much further up than this - the more we see of the state of the party, random dreg bigots scraped from every dark corner, the sooner the cap on their vote is reached
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
I would love to think that is true. Hopefully it will be.
But sadly I am not sure that random dreg bigots (we should adopt that term on here, maybe abbreviate it to RDBs?
) bother a lot of people that much. I mean look at what a grifter Farage is, and he's hugely popular in many circles, who believe he talks common sense, speaks for the working man and is someone you'd have a pint with.
Fez909
toilet expert
He's a joker, that's all. No one would seriously want him running things. On the debate thing tonight, he was acting like he was on a panel show, rather than a genuine politician, trying to get elected.I would love to think that is true. Hopefully it will be.
But sadly I am not sure that random dreg bigots (we should adopt that term on here, maybe abbreviate it to RDBs?
He was elected to the EU Parliament and spent all his time there disrupting things, but that was fine because he was elected to be a spoiler of a foreign system.
But putting him in charge of mortgages, nukes and hospitals? Nah, I don't think there's anywhere near enough people in the UK who can tolerate him for that to happen.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
I hope you're also right.
However, I think there are a large number of people who would want to see him running things, unfortunately.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ska's right. UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform have been/are successful on in terms of the past electoral performance of hard right parties but they are extremely unpopular overall. Same as with the populist right in across most of Western Europe - there is a ceiling on the support for the populist right.I would love to think that is true. Hopefully it will be.
But sadly I am not sure that random dreg bigots (we should adopt that term on here, maybe abbreviate it to RDBs?
Which is not to underestimate or downplay the harm they can cause, the Tories and Labour chasing their coat tails is going to cause real hurt to people. But it is worth remembering that a significant majority reject the populist right. The challenge is building a politics that not only rejects their politics but creates a real alternative to it - that is harder.
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