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Political polling

Inputting the figures from the you gov poll into Electoral Calculus (which works out how many seats each party gets as a result) gives the following seat breakdown. Not very likely im sure (but still possible) but a fun out come none the less ....

Labour: 540
Lib Dem: 46
Con: 29
SNP: 12
Green: 2
Reform: 0


Read somewhere that First past the post starts to work against the tories when they get below a certain vote share - and they are perilously close to that point in the polls. (and beyond it in the latest you gov one).
 
I'm very aware that those of us who follow polling should be alert to the signs of the 'usual convergence' that develops during an election campaign, but the vermin media are making quite a deal of today's JLPartners poll:

View attachment 426351

That said, Smitheson's blog has posted this apparently useful tweet, attempting to highlight party bias in a traffic-light coded manner. Apparently, base upon methodological differences, those pollsters coded yellow & green tend to produce under-estimates of the LP polling lead.

View attachment 426353

And, lo, the Telegraph is creaming itself over a JL Partners poll.

I do genuinely expect convergence, but I'm not convinced that this is it, tbh.
Pedant alert:

The poll doesn’t show the ‘usual convergence’, it shows a narrowing of a lead. Convergence is when the polling companies fiddle with their underlying assumptions to be roughly on track with other companies. Do, if YouGov show a lead of 12% but everyone else is showing 22%, yougov will start fiddling their figures to match more.

This one is just claiming an actual narrowing of the gap. A tad implausibly.
 
I find it hard to believe the Tories will actually end-up on only 66 seats, but it's a bit mad that a MRP poll involving over 10k people can produce this predication.



GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL

We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election.

Seats tally
CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2

This accounts for tactical voting.


9:01 PM · May 31, 2024 1.2M Views
 
Terrible sub-heading and lead-in - further down it actually makes it clear that shy Tories aren't the issue

And that while the range of results (currently) is widish, they are all pointing in the same direction
I would find these polls much more interesting if the polling companies also included the 'don't knows' and 'not voting' in their graphics. They make up such a large chunk of responses and IMO are an important sign of how flawed our democracy is. Though, maybe that's why they're not included...
 
That makes sense. But is the twat from Chorley not standing then, or does he get a free ticket to the HoC?
And I've just remembered I put a brief history of Speaker opponents here:


Constituency results of Speakers of the House of Commons

1832: Cambridge University (2)
Rt. Hon. H. Goulburn (Con) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. C.M. Sutton (Con) – unopposed

1835: Cambridge University (2)
Rt. Hon. H. Goulburn (Con) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. Sir C.M. Sutton (Con) – unopposed

1837: Edinburgh (2)
Rt. Hon. J. Abercromby (Lib) – unopposed
Sir J. Campbell (Lib) – unopposed

1841: North Hampshire (2)
Sir W. Heathcote, Bt. (Con) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. C.S. Lefevre (Lib) – unopposed

1847: North Hampshire (2)
Sir W. Heathcote, Bt. (Con) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. C.S. Lefevre (Lib) – unopposed

1852: North Hampshire (2)
M. Portal (Con) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. C.S. Lefevre (Lib) – unopposed

1857: No incumbent Speaker

1859: North Nottinghamshire (2)
Lord Robert Clinton (Lib) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. J.E. Denison (Lib) – unopposed

1865: North Nottinghamshire (2)
Lord Robert Clinton (Lib) – unopposed
Rt. Hon. J.E. Denison (Lib) – unopposed

1868: North Nottinghamshire (2)
Rt. Hon. J.E. Denison (Lib) – unopposed
F.C. Smith (Con) – unopposed

1874: Cambridgeshire (3)
Rt. Hon. H.B.W. Brand (Lib) – unopposed
Lord George Manners (Con) – unopposed
Hon. E.C. Yorke (Con) – unopposed

1880: Cambridgeshire (3)
Rt. Hon. H.B.W. Brand (Lib) – unopposed
E. Hicks (Con) – unopposed
B.B.H. Rodwell (Con) – unopposed

1885: Warwick and Leamington
Rt. Hon. A.W. Peel (Lib) – 2,644
E.M. Nelson (Con) – 2,272

1886: Warwick and Leamington
Rt. Hon. A.W. Peel (Lib Unionist) – unopposed

1892: Warwick and Leamington
Rt. Hon. A.W. Peel (Lib Unionist) – unopposed

1895: Carlisle
Rt. Hon. W.C. Gully (Lib) – 3,167
S.P. Foster (Con) – 2,853

1900: Carlisle
Rt. Hon. W.C. Gully (Lib) – unopposed

1906: Cumberland, Penrith
Rt. Hon. J.W. Lowther (Con) – unopposed

Jan 1910: Cumberland, Penrith
Rt. Hon. J.W. Lowther (Con) – unopposed

Dec 1910: Cumberland, Penrith
Rt. Hon. J.W. Lowther (Con) – unopposed

1918: Cumberland, Penrith and Cockermouth
Rt. Hon. J.W. Lowther (Coalition Con) – unopposed

1922: Halifax
Rt. Hon. J.H. Whitley (Lib) – unopposed

1923: Halifax
Rt. Hon. J.H. Whitley (Lib) – unopposed

1924: Halifax
Rt. Hon. J.H. Whitley (Lib) – unopposed

1929: Northamptonshire, Daventry
Rt. Hon. E.A. Fitzroy (Con) – unopposed

1931: Northamptonshire, Daventry
Rt. Hon. E.A. Fitzroy (Con) – unopposed

1935: Northamptonshire, Daventry
Rt. Hon. E.A. Fitzroy (Con) – 18,934
T.E. Barnes (Lab) – 10,767

1945: Northumberland, Hexham
Rt. Hon. D. Clifton Brown (Con) – 16,431
E. Kavanagh (Lab) – 11,786

1950: Northumberland, Hexham
Rt. Hon. D. Clifton Brown (Con) – 24,703
A. Hancock (Ind Lib) – 4,154

1951: No incumbent Speaker

1955: Gloucestershire, Cirencester and Tewkesbury
Rt. Hon. W.S. Morrison (Con) – 25,372
D.C. Cox (Ind Lab) – 12,394

1959: No incumbent Speaker

1964: Cities of London and Westminster
Rt. Hon. Sir H.B.H. Hylton-Foster (Con) – 21,588
R.G. Wallace (Lab) – 11,309
J.W. Derry (Lib) – 4,087

1966: Southampton, Itchen
Dr. Rt. Hon. H.M. King (Lab) – 30,463
K.D. Hunt (“Non-Party Democratic Nationalist”) – 5,217

1970: Southampton, Itchen
Dr. Rt. Hon. H.M. King (Lab) – 29,417
E.N.I. Bray (National Democratic Party) – 9,581
B.H. Phillips (Ind) – 4,794

Feb 1974: Cheshire, Wirral
Rt. Hon. J.S.B. Lloyd (Con) – 38,452
A.J. Whipp (Lab) – 22,605
M.R.D. Gayford (Lib) – 14,123

Oct 1974: Cheshire, Wirral
Rt. Hon. J.S.B. Lloyd (Con) – 35,705
P.R. Thomas (Lab) – 22,217
M.R.D. Gayford (Lib) – 12,345

1979: Cardiff, West
Rt. Hon. T.G. Thomas (Lab) – 27,035
A. Ogwen (Plaid) – 3,272
C. Gibbon (National Front) – 1,287

1983: No incumbent Speaker

1987: Croydon, North-East
Rt. Hon. B.B. Weatherill (Con) – 24,188
Miss C.E. Patrick (Lab) – 11,669
J.D. Goldie (SDP) – 8,128

1992: No incumbent Speaker

1997: West Bromwich West
Rt. Hon. Miss B. Boothroyd (Speaker seeking re-election) – 23,969
R.E.W. Silvester (Ind Lab) – 8,546
S. Edwards (National Democrats) – 4,181

2001: Glasgow Springburn
Rt. Hon. M.J. Martin (Speaker seeking re-election) – 16,053
A. Bain (SNP) – 4,675
Miss C. Leckie (Scottish Socialist Party) – 1,879
D. Houston (Scottish Unionist Party) – 1,289
R.E.W. Silvester (Ind Lab) – 208

2005: Glasgow North-East
Rt. Hon. M.J. Martin (Speaker seeking re-election) – 15,153
J.F. McLaughlin (SNP) – 5,019
(Ms.?) D. Kelly (Socialist Labour Party) – 4,036
G.M. Campbell (Scottish Socialist Party) – 1,402
D. Houston (Scottish Unionist Party) – 1,266
S. McLean (BNP) – 920
J. Chambers (Ind) – 622

2010: Buckinghamshire, Buckingham
Rt. Hon. J.S. Bercow (Speaker seeking re-election) – 22,860
J.C.C. Stevens (Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy) – 10,331
N.P. Farage (UKIP) – 8,401
F.P.S. Phillips (Ind) – 2,394
(Ms.?) D.V. Martin (Ind) – 1,270
(Ms.?) L. Mozar (BNP) – 980
C. Dale-Mills (OMRLP) – 856
W.G. Howard (Ind) – 435
D.P.R. Hews (Christian Party) – 369
A. Watts (Ind) – 332
S.J. Strutt (Cut the Deficit Party) – 107

2015: Buckinghamshire, Buckingham
J. BERCOW [Speaker] 34,617
D. Fowler [UKIP] 11,675
A. Francis [Green] 7,400

2017: Buckinghamshire, Buckingham
J. BERCOW [Speaker] 34,299
M. Sheppard [Green] 8,574
S. Raven [Independent] 5,638
B. Maplecroft [UKIP} 4,168

2019: Lancashire, Chorley
L. HOYLE [Speaker] 26,831
M. Brexit-Smith [Independent] 9,439
J. Melling [Green] 3,600
 
The RefUKers seem to have hit some sort of sweet spot that enables the maximum vermin damage with zero seats.
Weirdly the refuks poll higher than the lib dems who are expected to get seats. Fptp is weird. Still at least it is fucking the tories for a change :thumbs:
 
Weirdly the refuks poll higher than the lib dems who are expected to get seats. Fptp is weird. Still at least it is fucking the tories for a change :thumbs:
In my simplistic, post-beers state, I can only offer the word geography; the excluded are everywhere, whereas the wealthy, entitled LDs tend to be concentrated in more exclusive enclaves
 
I'm no cheer leader forPR, but even these wild leads need to be stepped back from occasionally: if there were 20 people in a room, 9 would be voting Labour and 5 voting Tory. Not entirely a wave of enthusiasm for, well, any of the twats.
 
In my simplistic, post-beers state, I can only offer the word geography; the excluded are everywhere, whereas the wealthy, entitled LDs tend to be concentrated in more exclusive enclaves

That's not strictly true - they've historically been very strong in the South West and part of Scotland. In the South West, Labour have been the 3rd choice party in all but Plymouth.. The LibDem vote is in some respects more similar to SNP vote in that geography and history matters more.
 
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