danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Rolling polling, rolling. Raw data.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I knew when I wrote it
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
My constituency, as predicted elsewhere too, likely to go to Labour:
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Inputting the figures from the you gov poll into Electoral Calculus (which works out how many seats each party gets as a result) gives the following seat breakdown. Not very likely im sure (but still possible) but a fun out come none the less ....
Labour: 540
Lib Dem: 46
Con: 29
SNP: 12
Green: 2
Reform: 0
Read somewhere that First past the post starts to work against the tories when they get below a certain vote share - and they are perilously close to that point in the polls. (and beyond it in the latest you gov one).
Labour: 540
Lib Dem: 46
Con: 29
SNP: 12
Green: 2
Reform: 0
Read somewhere that First past the post starts to work against the tories when they get below a certain vote share - and they are perilously close to that point in the polls. (and beyond it in the latest you gov one).
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Pedant alert:
The poll doesn’t show the ‘usual convergence’, it shows a narrowing of a lead. Convergence is when the polling companies fiddle with their underlying assumptions to be roughly on track with other companies. Do, if YouGov show a lead of 12% but everyone else is showing 22%, yougov will start fiddling their figures to match more.
This one is just claiming an actual narrowing of the gap. A tad implausibly.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
General election: Labour extends lead over Conservatives in exclusive poll for Sky News
The Conservatives have failed to get a bounce from Rishi Sunak's surprise election announcement and are still struggling to win back their coalition of 2019 voters, data from YouGov suggests.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Hah, just came to say same.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I find it hard to believe the Tories will actually end-up on only 66 seats, but it's a bit mad that a MRP poll involving over 10k people can produce this predication.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL
We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election.
Seats tally
CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2
This accounts for tactical voting.
9:01 PM · May 31, 2024 1.2M Views
We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election.
Seats tally
CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2
This accounts for tactical voting.
9:01 PM · May 31, 2024 1.2M Views
zedr
new but not *that* new
I would find these polls much more interesting if the polling companies also included the 'don't knows' and 'not voting' in their graphics. They make up such a large chunk of responses and IMO are an important sign of how flawed our democracy is. Though, maybe that's why they're not included...
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
1 "other" - North Islington?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The RefUKers seem to have hit some sort of sweet spot that enables the maximum vermin damage with zero seats.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Chorley, the Speaker
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Off course; that's also the answer to a question that Serge Forward asked me the other day regarding the black spot near Burnley on a map I posted the other day.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
That makes sense. But is the twat from Chorley not standing then, or does he get a free ticket to the HoC?Off course; that's also the answer to a question that Serge Forward asked me the other day regarding the black spot near Burnley on a map I posted the other day.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
By convention the main parties don't oppose the Speaker. Last time he was opposed by a Green and a man who changed his name to put Brexit as his surname.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
And I've just remembered I put a brief history of Speaker opponents here:
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Weirdly the refuks poll higher than the lib dems who are expected to get seats. Fptp is weird. Still at least it is fucking the tories for a change
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
In my simplistic, post-beers state, I can only offer the word geography; the excluded are everywhere, whereas the wealthy, entitled LDs tend to be concentrated in more exclusive enclavesWeirdly the refuks poll higher than the lib dems who are expected to get seats. Fptp is weird. Still at least it is fucking the tories for a change
maomao
普費斯
There'd be another ten people in the room that didn't vote for anyone at all, so that would be nine out of thirty.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Any idea how far that RefUKer % can be pushed up before they score a single seat?
Hollis
bloody furious
That's not strictly true - they've historically been very strong in the South West and part of Scotland. In the South West, Labour have been the 3rd choice party in all but Plymouth.. The LibDem vote is in some respects more similar to SNP vote in that geography and history matters more.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
It's tricky because of FPTP. Fact is, nationally, they could score fuck all and gain one of the Thanets, just as George could gain Rochdale. These calculators are sometimes not programmed to deal with that.
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