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Political polling

Yesterday's Survation poll was bang on mean poll-of-polls at 20% Labour lead:



They seem to be finding lower RefUKer %s than many of the other pollsters.
 
So, 3 months before the Blair landslide, the vermin still led New Labour on the economy (stupid) by 15% with Clarke's personal ratings ahead of Brown's. Today, maybe 3 months away from the next GE, the LP is 18% ahead on the economy and Reeves outpolls Hunt.

Hmmm

1715713066760.png
 
FWIW - I fully expect the Tories to do much better than expected, at least as far as % vote. - I figure they could end up on 35-37% due to a combination of the 'shy Tories' mentioned, and, particularly if the Reform vote collapses.

They haven't even started on the Labour's 'Tax Bombshell' stuff yet - which could definetly win them a few % among the middle and upper income earners.
 
The “shy Tory” phenomenon arose from the fact that people wanted to vote in their self-interest but didn’t want to admit it to pollsters. That doesn’t apply today, because nobody believes that a Tory vote is actually in their self-interest.
 
brogdale said:
Ah, the shy tories are back…

www.theguardian.com

Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert

Exclusive: Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voters
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Terrible sub-heading and lead-in - further down it actually makes it clear that shy Tories aren't the issue
Hayward said it was “not shy Tories” all over again, and that Labour still undoubtedly had a large lead over the Conservatives, but he was concerned the polls were “getting it wrong”.
Click to expand...
And that while the range of results (currently) is widish, they are all pointing in the same direction
“The other issue is undecided voters. There’s three times more people who voted Conservative and are undecided than voted Labour and are undecided, and where these voters end up going will make a big difference. The pollsters make different assumptions about this group … The range of this is probably like Labour 1997 to Canada 1993 – it’s a Conservative party historic defeat with one methodology, to complete wipeout with another methodology.”
Click to expand...
 
Hollis said:
FWIW - I fully expect the Tories to do much better than expected, at least as far as % vote. - I figure they could end up on 35-37% due to a combination of the 'shy Tories' mentioned, and, particularly if the Reform vote collapses.

They haven't even started on the Labour's 'Tax Bombshell' stuff yet - which could definetly win them a few % among the middle and upper income earners.
Click to expand...
even if the got every Refuk voter (which they wont come close to - according to polling research) they would still only be on the low 30s. I dont think they will get as low as current polling - (but who knows?) but I can see them stuggling to get over 30%. Everyone is fucking sick of them. Nobody outside REfuk land thinks labour are going to do anything remotely scary/radicial and very few people think they could be less competant and chaotic then the shitshow of the tory party.
 
Last edited:
Hollis said:
FWIW - I fully expect the Tories to do much better than expected, at least as far as % vote. - I figure they could end up on 35-37% due to a combination of the 'shy Tories' mentioned, and, particularly if the Reform vote collapses.

They haven't even started on the Labour's 'Tax Bombshell' stuff yet - which could definetly win them a few % among the middle and upper income earners.
Click to expand...
I'm very aware that those of us who follow polling should be alert to the signs of the 'usual convergence' that develops during an election campaign, but the vermin media are making quite a deal of today's JLPartners poll:

1716919160429.png

That said, Smitheson's blog has posted this apparently useful tweet, attempting to highlight party bias in a traffic-light coded manner. Apparently, base upon methodological differences, those pollsters coded yellow & green tend to produce under-estimates of the LP polling lead.

1716919368788.png

And, lo, the Telegraph is creaming itself over a JL Partners poll.

I do genuinely expect convergence, but I'm not convinced that this is it, tbh.
 
The 27% lead above is from YouGov, so don’t knows aren’t modelled or forced to choose - as per the pic that I see Brogdale has posted above, so I will delete from this post! Still massive though, anyway.
 
PR1Berske said:
Sky News this morning reporting its own poll:

Lab: 47%
Con: 20%
Reform: 12%
Lib Dem: 9%
Green: 7%
Click to expand...

Also worth mentioning -

Of the Tory voters from that year [2019], only 36% say they would vote Tory now, 19% would vote Reform UK, 19% don't know and 14% would switch to Labour.

This is the key group identified by Conservative headquarters, and the national service announcement on Sunday was aimed at bringing this group back into the fold.
Click to expand...

As a lot of Labour voters switched to the Tories last time, 'to get Brexit done', I think it's reasonable that those will switch back. The big questions are will that 19% actually switch to Reform come the day, and what will happen with the 19% don't know [yet], they could break off in all directions, although I suspect there will be reasonable number that will just stay at home.

Even if they win over half of both of those groups, they will still be in trouble.

news.sky.com

General election: Labour extends lead over Conservatives in exclusive poll for Sky News

The Conservatives have failed to get a bounce from Rishi Sunak's surprise election announcement and are still struggling to win back their coalition of 2019 voters, data from YouGov suggests.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
cupid_stunt said:
Also worth mentioning -



As a lot of Labour voters switched to the Tories last time, 'to get Brexit done', I think it's reasonable that those will switch back. The big questions are will that 19% actually switch to Reform come the day, and what will happen with the 19% don't know [yet], they could break off in all directions, although I suspect there will be reasonable number that will just stay at home.

Even if they win over half of both of those groups, they will still be in trouble.

news.sky.com

General election: Labour extends lead over Conservatives in exclusive poll for Sky News

The Conservatives have failed to get a bounce from Rishi Sunak's surprise election announcement and are still struggling to win back their coalition of 2019 voters, data from YouGov suggests.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
Click to expand...
Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.
 
brogdale said:
Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.
Click to expand...
The same with my in laws in Chatham, staunch tories who will not vote now as they can't get gp or dental appointments.
 
brogdale said:
Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.
Click to expand...

Ditto down in West Sussex, between whatsapp groups and talking to various people in their 60s & 70s over the last couple of days, the NHS remains the biggest worry, combined with just having had enough of the the clown show over recent years, and the fact that Starmer and Reeves are simply not scaring them.

They are also totally unimpressed with this ridiculous national service idea, there's a mix of some switching to Labour and others not going to bother to vote, only one is toying with voting Reform, I didn't pick him up on that, in case he decided to switch back to the Tories.
 
The FT's constituency level seat projection model based on rolling polling:

The FT’s UK general election model explained

[As usual with the FT's £wall, it is usually possible to get around it by putting the title, "The FT’s UK general election model explained" into a Google search]

Quite a useful tool with nice swing flow projection graphics at National & Constituency level:

1716980498897.png

1716980554687.png
 
cupid_stunt said:
Ditto down in West Sussex, between whatsapp groups and talking to various people in their 60s & 70s over the last couple of days, the NHS remains the biggest worry, combined with just having had enough of the the clown show over recent years, and the fact that Starmer and Reeves are simply not scaring them.

They are also totally unimpressed with this ridiculous national service idea, there's a mix of some switching to Labour and others not going to bother to vote, only one is toying with voting Reform, I didn't pick him up on that, in case he decided to switch back to the Tories.
Click to expand...
My mum (a rare 85 year old Labour voter) says that everyone she's spoken to (eg age 70+ friends) just don't know how to vote this time (if at all), completely undecided. Which just shows what a completely different world this demographic lives in - and from the sound of their lack of enthusiasm for Labour, even now, they will all trot back to the Tories by July. I strongly suggested that she encourages them just not to bother this time.
 
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