He probably was in a previous existence.14% of Brits in 'think the Pope is a Buddhist' shock.
That just tells me that one twenty people don’t only what the word “delighted” means5% would be "delighted" with a rat-boy majority; they walk amongst us
Pretty close to the vote shares from the 2013 OP
Terrible sub-heading and lead-in - further down it actually makes it clear that shy Tories aren't the issueAh, the shy tories are back…
Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert
Exclusive: Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voterswww.theguardian.com
And that while the range of results (currently) is widish, they are all pointing in the same directionHayward said it was “not shy Tories” all over again, and that Labour still undoubtedly had a large lead over the Conservatives, but he was concerned the polls were “getting it wrong”.
“The other issue is undecided voters. There’s three times more people who voted Conservative and are undecided than voted Labour and are undecided, and where these voters end up going will make a big difference. The pollsters make different assumptions about this group … The range of this is probably like Labour 1997 to Canada 1993 – it’s a Conservative party historic defeat with one methodology, to complete wipeout with another methodology.”
even if the got every Refuk voter (which they wont come close to - according to polling research) they would still only be on the low 30s. I dont think they will get as low as current polling - (but who knows?) but I can see them stuggling to get over 30%. Everyone is fucking sick of them. Nobody outside REfuk land thinks labour are going to do anything remotely scary/radicial and very few people think they could be less competant and chaotic then the shitshow of the tory party.FWIW - I fully expect the Tories to do much better than expected, at least as far as % vote. - I figure they could end up on 35-37% due to a combination of the 'shy Tories' mentioned, and, particularly if the Reform vote collapses.
They haven't even started on the Labour's 'Tax Bombshell' stuff yet - which could definetly win them a few % among the middle and upper income earners.
I'm very aware that those of us who follow polling should be alert to the signs of the 'usual convergence' that develops during an election campaign, but the vermin media are making quite a deal of today's JLPartners poll:FWIW - I fully expect the Tories to do much better than expected, at least as far as % vote. - I figure they could end up on 35-37% due to a combination of the 'shy Tories' mentioned, and, particularly if the Reform vote collapses.
They haven't even started on the Labour's 'Tax Bombshell' stuff yet - which could definetly win them a few % among the middle and upper income earners.
Sky News this morning reporting its own poll:
Lab: 47%
Con: 20%
Reform: 12%
Lib Dem: 9%
Green: 7%
Of the Tory voters from that year [2019], only 36% say they would vote Tory now, 19% would vote Reform UK, 19% don't know and 14% would switch to Labour.
This is the key group identified by Conservative headquarters, and the national service announcement on Sunday was aimed at bringing this group back into the fold.
Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.Also worth mentioning -
As a lot of Labour voters switched to the Tories last time, 'to get Brexit done', I think it's reasonable that those will switch back. The big questions are will that 19% actually switch to Reform come the day, and what will happen with the 19% don't know [yet], they could break off in all directions, although I suspect there will be reasonable number that will just stay at home.
Even if they win over half of both of those groups, they will still be in trouble.
General election: Labour extends lead over Conservatives in exclusive poll for Sky News
The Conservatives have failed to get a bounce from Rishi Sunak's surprise election announcement and are still struggling to win back their coalition of 2019 voters, data from YouGov suggests.news.sky.com
The same with my in laws in Chatham, staunch tories who will not vote now as they can't get gp or dental appointments.Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.
Having recently spent some time down in E.Kent with my elders, the vermin are going to struggle with the former tory, poorer pensioner vote; for every 1 of them who's vaguely impressed by reversing tax increases on their pension, there's many more who struggle to see any GP and have direct experience of corridor care in A&E.
My mum (a rare 85 year old Labour voter) says that everyone she's spoken to (eg age 70+ friends) just don't know how to vote this time (if at all), completely undecided. Which just shows what a completely different world this demographic lives in - and from the sound of their lack of enthusiasm for Labour, even now, they will all trot back to the Tories by July. I strongly suggested that she encourages them just not to bother this time.Ditto down in West Sussex, between whatsapp groups and talking to various people in their 60s & 70s over the last couple of days, the NHS remains the biggest worry, combined with just having had enough of the the clown show over recent years, and the fact that Starmer and Reeves are simply not scaring them.
They are also totally unimpressed with this ridiculous national service idea, there's a mix of some switching to Labour and others not going to bother to vote, only one is toying with voting Reform, I didn't pick him up on that, in case he decided to switch back to the Tories.
Those vermin feeders are dead to me since they closed the Croydon branch; used to get a week's worth of yellow-label bargains on Sunday's between 5 & 6.Only waitrose has majority tory customers...
Waitrose only major supermarket with majority Tory customers, polls show
Shoppers at Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Lidl and Aldi have all swung to Labour from Conservative since 2019www.theguardian.com