Political polling

[Rimbaud]

Driscoll will be getting my vote (he'd have got my partner's postal vote too, but we didn't twig in time that Driscoll was the guy Starmer had banned ). Interestingly, his leaflet doesn't mention any of that, just his record as Tyne mayor. That was probably a good idea, though not standing as Real Labour or similar does mean he'll lose the votes of some people who similarly missed his back story.

The rationale is probably that the people who care about his backstory will mostly find out about it anyway through word of mouth and social media. Going on about it in his leaflets would come across as sour grapes to people who aren't political anoraks, and probably lose him more votes than he'd gain.

Also, being independent and letting his record and policies speak for him allows him to transcend left and right and pick up votes from people who are sick of all the parties. Being an independent voice for the North East and promising to improve public transport and deliver jobs can potentially take votes from Reform UK, advertising his Corbynism won't do that.

 

[Wilf]

The rationale is probably that the people who care about his backstory will mostly find out about it anyway through word of mouth and social media. Going on about it in his leaflets would come across as sour grapes to people who aren't political anoraks, and probably lose him more votes than he'd gain.

Also, being independent and letting his record and policies speak for him allows him to transcend left and right and pick up votes from people who are sick of all the parties. Being an independent voice for the North East and promising to improve public transport and deliver jobs can potentially take votes from Reform UK, advertising his Corbynism won't do that.

Yes to the underlined, though I thought a bit of subtle positioning might have helped. Some way of saying 'I'm not a starmer drone'.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Voley]

Electoral Calculus email this morning:

Current Prediction: Labour majority 294

Prediction: Con 85, Lab 472, Lib Dem 50, SNP 19,

Labour majority of 294

Political opinion held fairly steady in April with no major changes for any party. Labour continues to have a lead of about 20pc over the Conservatives, which would guarantee them a large majority. Reform are ahead of the Liberal Democrats in vote share terms, but are not expected to win any seats. In Scotland, Labour and the SNP are roughly level, which would cause the SNP to lose over half of their current seats.

General Election Prediction

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[brogdale]

The REFukers are genuinely hurting the vermin

 

[kabbes]

The REFukers are genuinely hurting the vermin

In one direction. So is retreating from social liberalism in the other direction. They’re caught in the middle.

 

[Balbi]

Yeah and are those numbers soft and an election campaign sees REF UK voters go yeah well it's a protest right now but we don't want Labour in at all.

The local elections might give an indication but locals are weird man people vote to protest, but also local government can be a real personality game.

I'm still waiting to see Starmer get election campaign tested because he seems to really struggle under pressure. I can see Labour ending in the high 30s and the Tories in the mid to late 20's come election day. A ten to twelve point gap.

 

[Leafster]

In one direction. So is retreating from social liberalism in the other direction. They’re caught in the middle.

I thought this was interesting from Electoral Calculus showing the movement of voters between parties.

Voter Migration by Party 2019-Feb 2024

It suggests the Tories are losing as many to apathy/frustration as they are to Reform.

 

[Sue]

I thought this was interesting from Electoral Calculus showing the movement of voters between parties.

View attachment 422791

Voter Migration by Party 2019-Feb 2024

It suggests the Tories are losing as many to apathy/frustration as they are to Reform.

It also suggests that no-one apart from the Tories has voters moving to not voting.

 

[Leafster]

It also suggests that no-one apart from the Tories has voters moving to not voting.

I took it to mean they were net movements so, in terms of labour supporters, the net result was a 2% swing from not voting to voting labour.

 

[Wilf]

Yeah and are those numbers soft and an election campaign sees REF UK voters go yeah well it's a protest right now but we don't want Labour in at all.

The local elections might give an indication but locals are weird man people vote to protest, but also local government can be a real personality game.

I'm still waiting to see Starmer get election campaign tested because he seems to really struggle under pressure. I can see Labour ending in the high 30s and the Tories in the mid to late 20's come election day. A ten to twelve point gap.

For a year or two I've been predicting Labour's lead could crumble in a GE campaign, given that there's no coherence to the message and, most of all, Starmer will be awful in leader interviews/debates. The double digit leads have been so steady and the Tories have now just about given up. Equally, Sunak himself isn't going to be able to duff Starmer up too much. So, I've finally reached the point where I'd say Labour have say a 90% chance of a working majority. But still... I think I'd go with something like the same numbers as you.

Another way of thinking about this is that there are few circumstances where a Labour leader like Starner and a party that has abandoned it's most popular policies and is still at war with the left could ever win an election. However....

 

[Bus Honeygun]

I thought this was interesting from Electoral Calculus showing the movement of voters between parties.

View attachment 422791

Voter Migration by Party 2019-Feb 2024

It suggests the Tories are losing as many to apathy/frustration as they are to Reform.

Anecdotally, thinking of two Tories I actually know, they have both just lost interest.

One is a Remainer One Nation type who was actually a party member and councillor for many years (she's also really nice, very open-minded and socially liberal - we can never get our heads around it). I guess she feels her type just aren't wanted anymore.

The other is of the rugged individualist, pulled up by his own bootstraps type. I think it's the chaotic incompetence - particularly economically - that's got him.

 

[Elpenor]

Does suggest that tory polling could be understated if they can lure back their non-voters / votes lost to reform

 

[kebabking]

Does suggest that tory polling could be understated if they can lure back their non-voters / votes lost to reform

I'm not convinced - at all - that the 'i can't be arsed with that shower of shit' ex-tory voters could be won back until/unless Labour are wildly incompetent or take a Corbynite swerve.

I think they would return, in time, to a Cameron/May-esque Tory party, but to UKIP with better suits? Not without some effort by labour.

The UKIP/Reform people? Don't know. I think that a proportion of them certainly would be amenable to a Tory party that went harder into the loon sphere, but equally I think a lot of them have long ago decided that the Tories have let them down - but also that a good slice of these people have left rational (however unpleasant) politics and they are well into the conspiraloon tent. They aren't going to be interested in any of the 'mainstream' parties whatever policies they put forward - but the truth is, i don't know these people, so I'm very much poking in the dark...

 

[Lord Camomile]

the Tories have now just about given up. Equally, Sunak himself isn't going to be able to duff Starmer up too much.

I've just realised that I keep forgetting Sunak is the Prime Minister.

I mean, as ever, the ADHD takes the bite out of that fact a little bit, but still...

 

[Balbi]

I think what is haunting Labour is their best election result in %-terms since 1997.

2017 should have been a Tory wipeout on the same scale as 97, they were 21 points clear when the election was called. It was Labour 25%, Tories 46%.

Then the campaign happened, and it was a 2.5 point race 43.5% Tory vs 41% Labour - the stat that if about 5000 votes had gone to Labour, they'd have won etc.

Labour picked up SIXTEEN points, and only six of those could obviously have come from Lib Dems and Greens if you look at their polling on the day the election was called compared to the final result. The Tories only dropped 2.5 points in that same time period too, so despite a bad campaign from Theresa May, they held their shit together.

Labour know Starmer isn't good under pressure, he's not well liked, but they're relying on Sunak being even more dislikeable. They're also trying desperately to be as much like the Tories, and roll back on anything that could potentially even possibly be attacked during a campaign if there is even the tiniest suggestion of pushback from the press.

When you consider it through that lens, you realise why Labour are like this - they nearly benefited from one of the biggest electoral swings, and know that could swing back on them if the Tories pick up those Reform votes and Starmer gets the traditional media mauling that Labour leaders get - which so far he hasn't.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Labour know Starmer isn't... well liked, but they're relying on Sunak being even more dislikeable.

Yay, democracy!

 

[Elpenor]

I'm not convinced - at all - that the 'i can't be arsed with that shower of shit' ex-tory voters could be won back until/unless Labour are wildly incompetent or take a Corbynite swerve.

I think they would return, in time, to a Cameron/May-esque Tory party, but to UKIP with better suits? Not without some effort by labour.

The UKIP/Reform people? Don't know. I think that a proportion of them certainly would be amenable to a Tory party that went harder into the loon sphere, but equally I think a lot of them have long ago decided that the Tories have let them down - but also that a good slice of these people have left rational (however unpleasant) politics and they are well into the conspiraloon tent. They aren't going to be interested in any of the 'mainstream' parties whatever policies they put forward - but the truth is, i don't know these people, so I'm very much poking in the dark...

Early conjecture from the limited data in so far suggests Labour vote isn’t really growing compared to last time round, tories vote is dropping though. But yeah who knows

 

[brogdale]

The REFukers are genuinely hurting the vermin

Kellner's take on the threat posed to the vermin by the REFukers:

 

[kebabking]

Kellner's take on the threat posed to the vermin by the REFukers:

View attachment 422991

I have a little fear that when the Rwanda deportations start - and as long as it's more than half a dozen people - the Reform vote is going to hemorrhage back into the Tories.

I think it's far more of a driver for electoral success/mitigation for that slice of the electorate than anything economic would be.

 

[brogdale]

I have a little fear that when the Rwanda deportations start - and as long as it's more than half a dozen people - the Reform vote is going to hemorrhage back into the Tories.

I think it's far more of a driver for electoral success/mitigation for that slice of the electorate than anything economic would be.

Hmm...possibly.
I reckon that Tice's big 'policy reveal' (possibly involving the frog-faced cunt himself) to hang on to the crazed core will be to play on how shite Brexit has been because of the (Un)conservative unbelievers in charge.

 

[Knotted]

I thought this was interesting from Electoral Calculus showing the movement of voters between parties.

View attachment 422791

Voter Migration by Party 2019-Feb 2024

It suggests the Tories are losing as many to apathy/frustration as they are to Reform.

I don't know how accurate the data behind this is but three things are really striking to me about this.

1) Lots of former Tory voters are not planning to vote. Not a new fact as far as I am concerned but it is a very striking one.
2) Reform are hurting the Tories more than Labour+Lib Dems+Greens despite the Tories focusing more on holding up their right flank rather than their left flank.
3) A bit of a depressing and counter intuitive thing for the left and typical U75 commentary - Labour are winning over more non-voters than they are losing them.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[brogdale]

With a little 'noise', those LP numbers have been remarkably consistent for a year. Meanwhile, the vermin slide continues.

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s still more than one in three voters fully onboard with the ‘send them back’ message that the National Front used to try with in the 70s. I don’t think this is a good place politically.

 

[brogdale]

30 up according to YG:

 

[brogdale]

On the day that YG founder Zahawi leaves the sinking ship.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Just out of interest, if the mass wipeout above were to happen which 13 "lucky" pricks would keep their seats?

 

[brogdale]

The fantasy land Electoral Calculus mapping of 13 vermin seats, based on the polling, really does pinpoint the cunt-central areas:



ps I know this is all ludicrous