Albeit obviously unlikely, but mental to think 6 of the 13 are in Scotland!
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Albeit obviously unlikely, but mental to think 6 of the 13 are in Scotland!
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
The blue and the red walls fall, but Hadrian's Wall stands firm.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I fear that one of the glorious 13 would be mine - Wyre Forest (I think it's mine - the little blue blob in the Midlands...) I think Survation were forecasting it going from a 20k Tory majority to a wafer thin marginal, but just Tory by a few hundred votes.
If you want a bizarre trajectory - in 97 Labour won, they then closed the A&E at Kidderminster hospital (arguable decision imv, but..) and a local GP stood an an indy in 2001. He won, and then again in 2005. In 2010 the Tory won, and his majority has been getting bigger ever since.
He was sacked by Theresa May for being a sex pest, and is possibly the original archetype of the useless MP who only appears at election time. He earns about £150k outside of his MP's salary.
I love where I live, but fuck me do I look on voting patterns here in absolute bewilderment....
If you want a bizarre trajectory - in 97 Labour won, they then closed the A&E at Kidderminster hospital (arguable decision imv, but..) and a local GP stood an an indy in 2001. He won, and then again in 2005. In 2010 the Tory won, and his majority has been getting bigger ever since.
He was sacked by Theresa May for being a sex pest, and is possibly the original archetype of the useless MP who only appears at election time. He earns about £150k outside of his MP's salary.
I love where I live, but fuck me do I look on voting patterns here in absolute bewilderment....
2hats
Dust.
A semi-adjacent tweet suggests:
Helen Grant
Rebecca Harris
David Reed
Joy Morrissey
Sir John Whittingdale
John Hayes
Mike Wood
Alister Jack
David Mundell
John Lamont
David Duguid
Harriet Cross
Andrew Bowie
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
all the big hitters!
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
with the election 6 months away the tories look marooned around the low 20s - and have been for a looong time. Usually unpopular governments pick up when it gets to election time - but its looking a bit late. When it come to the actual campaign the only thing the tories may be able to do is win back some of the ReFukers - although some of them are actually ex-labour and some might end up going back there instead. A sub 30% vote share for the vermin definintely looks within the realms of possiblity. There is a level where FPTP starts to act very much agasint the tories and they start getting a far lower share of seats compared to their overall vote share (like what happend to the lib dems) and they get less than 100 seats - and they are perilously close to it - so you never know!
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I don't doubt that the majority of Tory voters and indeed most voters generally take a hard line (even it not actually pro-Rwanda) on immigration be it Eastern Europeans or Middle Eastern/African refugees. I don't think it is the TOP issue for most people though. I also think the Labour Party has it now stands understands this and isn't going to throw open the gates and shout "Welcome, Come On In" once it gets into power (which now seems inevitable).
The Rwanda policy is going to get canned I think but it will be because it is expensive and impractical not because they think it's wrong. Claiming Labour is soft on immigration is not going to cost them many votes because I don't think many people believe they will be. Voters are moving to Reform as a protest because they would never consider Labour/LD/Greens and are too angry not to sit it out. This can only hurt Tories with no impact on Labour, they are so totally screwed it's awesome.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Who?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Jesus H.
ska invita
back on the other side
Britain? You're right.
colchester/clacton and meadway... not surprised
There's a lot of former Tory voters saying they won't vote. Winning them back is the main hope for them. If they fail to do this then this sort of wipe out will probably happen.
There’s a fair amount of rich people in Scotland, as my parents used to tell me.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Maybe fptp combined with the additional factor of the snp vote in scotland?
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Feel like for Scotland with the anti-SNP movement, it’s anything but them, so Toriee get in just from that.
Davidson back in 2017 did a great job and establishing that mandate, and it’ll carry I think in some of them seats
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Most Scottish Conservative voters cast their vote for Labour. In many constituencies, there is not a hope in hell of a Conservative being elected, so the vote goes to the least worst choice.
I have little faith in political polling.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Expect a ‘New Labour, New Danger’ kind of campaign.
What bullshit fears will they try and tap into to motivate their voters to turn up? ‘Grooming’ of children making them into gays? Brown people living next door? Banning cars/christmas? It’s like Labour have moved so far right they have nothing to hit them with anymore.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
The thing with that line is they've totally blown any image of themselves as the safe option - the small c conservative one. That's not really going to fly once you've been responsible for putting Liz Truss into power is it.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
All the fucks group/polling work carried out over the last 3 years says that the vast majority of the electorate have simply stopped listening to the Tories - not just not believing them, or disagreeing with what they say, but simply not listening.
That suggests that the Tories could spend a fortune on a negative campaign and it would achieve very little.
I'm not so sure it is ludicrous - the first half of their tenure was defined by demanding sacrifices (from the youth especially) in return for 15 years of zero economic growth and falling living standards (GDP per capita still lower than in 2007) and the latter half of their tenure was marked by endless scandal, obvious incompetence and self-inflicted political chaos. It is a recipe for political oblivion.
I know people said similar things after 1997 but the situation isn't remotely comparable. There were winners and losers under Thatcherism and the core Tory vote (confined now to the over 70s) remains those who were winners of Thatcherism by benefiting from getting on the housing market. There have been no real winners of this Tory era, which is primarily defined by a significant national decline which has now became stark enough to enter public consciousness. Tory support in 1997 was also nowhere near as bad as it is today - polling 18% overall and in single figures amongst the under 50s.
Only 10% of voters under 50 intend to support Conservatives at next election – poll
Support for Rishi Sunak’s party is at its lowest level since Liz Truss’s final days as prime minister
www.independent.co.uk
Some polls have put Tory support amongst the 18-24 age group on a single percentile.
Just 1% of 18 to 24 year olds will vote Tory
When it comes to overall voting intention, the survey puts Labour on 45% of the vote nationally among all age brackets, with the Tories falling back to 24%.
Their main mistake was complacency in thinking that young voters will become Conservative as they get older, and in believing that austerity will yield any sort of long term economic benefit to justify the sacrifices demanded. But this hasn't happened as fewer have got on the property market and the economy has stagnated on top of failing public services. Therefore the Tory brand is now worse than the nasty party of 1997, it is now the nasty, chaotic and incompetent party. Being seen as callous but economically competent is one thing, but being seen as both callous and useless is another thing entirely.
There's a historic collapse of the Tory Party coming. Millenials and Gen Z are poisoned against them for life, this isn't going to change, and Tory loyalists are literally dying out.
Their main legacy other than decline amd chaos is Brexit, which is divisive but may inspire some tribal loyalty amongst some; however Reform UK has a better claim to Brexit than the Tories do.
There's also the issue of Senior Tories abandoning the Party and a lack of fresh blood to replace them. Such a lack of fresh blood compounds the problem as they lack anyone with the insight to reinvent the moribund party.
Could honestly see Reform UK being the main right wing party by the election after next, aided by mass defections from Tories fleeing the sinking ship. There's only 5% difference between them.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
All good points, well made. But people do vote against their own economic interests for all of the reasons that the vermin will forefront in their manifesto of fear.I'm not so sure it is ludicrous - the first half of their tenure was defined by demanding sacrifices (from the youth especially) in return for 15 years of zero economic growth and falling living standards (GDP per capita still lower than in 2007) and the latter half of their tenure was marked by endless scandal, obvious incompetence and self-inflicted political chaos. It is a recipe for political oblivion.
I know people said similar things after 1997 but the situation isn't remotely comparable. There were winners and losers under Thatcherism and the core Tory vote (confined now to the over 70s) remains those who were winners of Thatcherism by benefiting from getting on the housing market. There have been no real winners of this Tory era, which is primarily defined by a significant national decline which has now became stark enough to enter public consciousness. Tory support in 1997 was also nowhere near as bad as it is today - polling 18% overall and in single figures amongst the under 50s.
Only 10% of voters under 50 intend to support Conservatives at next election – poll
Support for Rishi Sunak’s party is at its lowest level since Liz Truss’s final days as prime minister
Some polls have put Tory support amongst the 18-24 age group on a single percentile.
Just 1% of 18 to 24 year olds will vote Tory
When it comes to overall voting intention, the survey puts Labour on 45% of the vote nationally among all age brackets, with the Tories falling back to 24%.leftfootforward.org
Their main mistake was complacency in thinking that young voters will become Conservative as they get older, and in believing that austerity will yield any sort of long term economic benefit to justify the sacrifices demanded. But this hasn't happened as fewer have got on the property market and the economy has stagnated on top of failing public services. Therefore the Tory brand is now worse than the nasty party of 1997, it is now the nasty, chaotic and incompetent party. Being seen as callous but economically competent is one thing, but being seen as both callous and useless is another thing entirely.
There's a historic collapse of the Tory Party coming. Millenials and Gen Z are poisoned against them for life, this isn't going to change, and Tory loyalists are literally dying out.
Their main legacy other than decline amd chaos is Brexit, which is divisive but may inspire some tribal loyalty amongst some; however Reform UK has a better claim to Brexit than the Tories do.
There's also the issue of Senior Tories abandoning the Party and a lack of fresh blood to replace them. Such a lack of fresh blood compounds the problem as they lack anyone with the insight to reinvent the moribund party.
Could honestly see Reform UK being the main right wing party by the election after next, aided by mass defections from Tories fleeing the sinking ship. There's only 5% difference between them.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Sadly, I remember the death of the Tory party from 97 etc...
I think there's definitely a lot in what Rimbaud has written, that there was once a pathway through accessibility to home ownership for Mr & Mrs Average-Income, but that's gone as surely as if it had been trebucheted into the sun - and that that's something that the generation below me (I'm late 40's) absolutely, solidly blame on the the post-2010 governments.
I think there's definitely a lot in what Rimbaud has written, that there was once a pathway through accessibility to home ownership for Mr & Mrs Average-Income, but that's gone as surely as if it had been trebucheted into the sun - and that that's something that the generation below me (I'm late 40's) absolutely, solidly blame on the the post-2010 governments.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
18% is an outlier, the average of the last 10 polls is 21.5%, though that is better than there polling 3-6 months before the 1997 election (average of 10 polls at beginning of Oct is 28.5% (if I've done my sums right).
Although the presence of Reform means direct comparisons need to be put into context - I'd be very surprised if there is not a protest vote for Reform in the GE, but how much and how significant it will be is something else.
BTW Are you still predicting a Green vote of 15%?
I wouldn't say 18% is far off enough from 21.5% to qualify as an outlier, and it isn't a single poll which has given 18%, this is the third poll since March to put them on 18% and there's been a few putting them on 19% too.
I don't remember predicting a Green vote of 15%, it doesn't look like they will do that well unless they get an excellent campaign going, but their vote share is certainly growing substantially.
not a trot
Well-Known Member
Going Green is an extra expense many would say they could do without.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
By next next election (before 2030) maybe.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep; a 20 point poll lead seems about right/
I use the Politico poll tracker as a quick reference for averages:
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