brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Because since June 14 (when the tracker Tory lead narrowed to 4.6%) the vermin's lead has increased. Not just MoE, but trends.
The latest polls – Britain Elects
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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The latest polls – Britain Elects
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Accept it's slight and I know this graph isn't up to date, but the tracker trend suggests that the vermin are pulling out of the post 1st-wave dip in their fortunes heading for double digit leading.
I dunno man, I'm just going on the website you posted - it's shown both parties with basically the same numbers for a month - if you ignore the brief blip where Labour closed the gap for a week, it's been flat since the beginning of June. run your cursor along the graph line - it's all averages of 36/37s for labour, and all averages of 42/43 for the tories. there isn't any sign of them pulling ahead.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The tories are ahead and it looks like their lead is re-growing.
FWIW, I've said a number of times upthread that if the opposition haven't been able to shift the poll numbers as the govt. has overseen 60-70k dead, they won't do so until Brexit is finally completed and the consequences start to become impossible to ignore.
it doesn't though.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
Heard some Yorkshire twat on Jeremy Vine (last Monday, I think - I usually listen to him on a Monday) commenting that Boris has solved Brexit, saved the NHS and dealt with Covid-19, and that all he needs now is a good war to cement him as a great PM. Well, I'm sold - if I had kids/grandkids I'd be signing them up.
ska invita
back on the other side
go go Brexit Party!
Supine
Newt Member
Can you imagine how well Labour would do if the left supported him!
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
20 points ahead; obviously.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Hence Peter Pandemic; he lives in NeverThere.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Since the current Labour strategy is 'do absolute fuck all and maybe eventually win by way of the other side spinning out and crashing into
ska invita
back on the other side
As i think Owen Jones has been saying, the question is where is the Tory floor - how strong is the core vote. Next spring/summer will be an interesting moment to test that39% responding want more of this
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Why then?
ska invita
back on the other side
The eye of the economic storm, post Brexit carnage and Covid damage. That wind should show who the faithful are
I've no idea whether the supposed Brexit carnage will materialise (I suspect it will not be all it's cracked up to be). But I recon the Tories have already lost all the support they are going to lose over Covid, with the opposition refusing to put an alternative strategy forward, the consequences of their mishandling appears as an inevitable result of a natural disaster as will the economic fallout.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I think the reverse, tbh. I suspect that the inertia or 'stickyness' of Leave supporter loyalty to Johnson's regime has actually shielded them from the adverse polling that might have been expected upon such a consistently woeful 'response' to the pandemic.
I think ska invita is right about the shit hitting the fan at some point, and when the Brexit debacle has had time to mature into genuinely sustained hard times, then the polling fall might be quite dramatic.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Indeed. Once the question of Brexit is done with, there will probably be quite a sizeable drop in their support (the same will probably be true of the SNP vote if they ever get independence).
maomao
普費斯
The shit will hit the fan but it depends how succesfully the Tories can portray this as part of the battle with the eu. I'm starting to think that they are deliberately trying to encourage the eu to take some sort of sanctions against us because then it will be part of the struggle rather than just incompetence and lack of planning.
The way I see it, the shit has been hitting the fan all summer. We've had unnecessary deaths equivalent to maybe five or six 9-11 terror attacks. The shit couldn't hit the fan more. If the worst possible case scenario happens with Brexit it's not going to be remotely comparable to what is happening right now or for that matter the economic fall out of what is happening right now.
You are not going to be able to find a way to even partially to pin economic woes on Brexit (whether you are justified in doing so or not) in a way that will make Tory voting leavers want to vote Labour to rejoin. It's going to be (rightly or wrongly) "our problems are down to Covid". And in any case a lot of leavers are prepared to experience some bad times before alternative trade deals are struck.
I think it is unlikely that the Tory core vote will be tested any further in the near future. I think at present we're seeing a small conference boost for Labour as it's pretty much the first time Starmer has said anything anybody has even noticed.
You are not going to be able to find a way to even partially to pin economic woes on Brexit (whether you are justified in doing so or not) in a way that will make Tory voting leavers want to vote Labour to rejoin. It's going to be (rightly or wrongly) "our problems are down to Covid". And in any case a lot of leavers are prepared to experience some bad times before alternative trade deals are struck.
I think it is unlikely that the Tory core vote will be tested any further in the near future. I think at present we're seeing a small conference boost for Labour as it's pretty much the first time Starmer has said anything anybody has even noticed.
mauvais
on reddit or something
You're wrong about this IMO.
A lot of people basically don't believe in Covid, at least in terms of lived experience. They don't know anyone who's got sick from it. They may or may not go along with wearing masks and complying with the laws but it's abstract. In many ways, with the exception of the initial lockdown, you can go back to normal if you so desire.
The same will not be true of worst case Brexit with food shortages etcetera. It will be impossible to avoid practical consequences of that one.
I doubt there will be food shortages as a result of Brexit, but even if there are we've already had fear of food shortages with the panic buying back in March to no great harm to the Tories. And real food shortages will not affect everyone the same. There isn't a level playing field with anything. The matter is a matter of whether or not people blame the government for hardships. So far there has been a great reluctance to do so even when the government are very much to blame.
When asked by polling companies, leavers generally say that Brexit would be worth it even if it causes economic harm. Most won't retreat to a rejoin position and even if they do they won't necessarily blame the Tory government for carrying out their previous wishes.
Nothing is automatic, everything has to be politicised.
When asked by polling companies, leavers generally say that Brexit would be worth it even if it causes economic harm. Most won't retreat to a rejoin position and even if they do they won't necessarily blame the Tory government for carrying out their previous wishes.
Nothing is automatic, everything has to be politicised.
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