Political polling

[MickiQ]

From that same Opinium poll. Lols.

Mrs Q loudly expressed her displeasure at the last election over the SNP's abject failure to run a candidate in Derbyshire South, they would have got one vote at least. Mrs Q who isn't even Scottish is a big fan of Sturgeon who seems to be one of the few politicians who is coming out of this with any credibility.

 

[NoXion]

Mrs Q loudly expressed her displeasure at the last election over the SNP's abject failure to run a candidate in Derbyshire South, they would have got one vote at least. Mrs Q who isn't even Scottish is a big fan of Sturgeon who seems to be one of the few politicians who is coming out of this with any credibility.

It's easy to do that when you're at least vaguely competent, while being compared to the absolute shower of shit currently infesting Westminster

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Mrs Q loudly expressed her displeasure at the last election over the SNP's abject failure to run a candidate in Derbyshire South, they would have got one vote at least. Mrs Q who isn't even Scottish is a big fan of Sturgeon who seems to be one of the few politicians who is coming out of this with any credibility.

At least in the European elections voters in the South West (outside of Cornwall) sometimes got the chance to vote for Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalists. Alas, no more.

 

[skyscraper101]

Mrs Q loudly expressed her displeasure at the last election over the SNP's abject failure to run a candidate in Derbyshire South, they would have got one vote at least. Mrs Q who isn't even Scottish is a big fan of Sturgeon who seems to be one of the few politicians who is coming out of this with any credibility.

TBH, the SNP or Plaid would have probably gotten my vote too if they ran a candidate in Richmond Park at the last election.

 

[Chz]

I used to say the SNP could poll better than the LDs nationally if they just dropped that independence nonsense. And now it's been proven that they can have their cake and eat it! I look forward to voting for them in South London.

 

[brogdale]

I used to say the SNP could poll better than the LDs nationally if they just dropped that independence nonsense. And now it's been proven that they can have their cake and eat it! I look forward to voting for them in South London.

I've often wondered why they don't stand in English constituencies as a potentially useful disruptor to the tory vote; surely Scots independence = English independence as well? Plenty of the more knuckle dragging tory fellow travellers would go for that, no?

 

[Sue]

I've often wondered why they don't stand in English constituencies as a potentially useful disruptor to the tory vote; surely Scots independence = English independence as well? Plenty of the more knuckle dragging tory fellow travellers would go for that, no?

Why would they though? They're about Scotland and Scottish independence -- what England and English voters do is really not their concern. And why would they be bothered about disrupting the Tory vote anyway? The current Tory vote and Westminster government are working out pretty well for them at the moment.

tl:dr It's not always about England.

 

[brogdale]

Why would they though? They're about Scotland and Scottish independence -- what England and English voters do is really not their concern. And why would they be bothered about disrupting the Tory vote anyway? The current Tory vote and Westminster government are working out pretty well for them at the moment.

tl:dr It's not always about England.

Wasn't one of my most serious posts

 

[Sue]

Wasn't one of my most serious posts

Just something that kind of does my head in in general. I can't tell you the number of times (as a Scottish person living in England) I've been told (completely seriously) there's a Tory government in Westminster or Labour will never form a Westminster government again because people in Scotland voted the wrong way (i.e. not Labour). Obviously no thought or analysis about how or why voting patterns have shifted so dramatically and why so many traditional Labour voters jumped ship.

And then there was Indyref where people were apparently voting yes because they hate English people and had some kind of responsibility to think of the poor non-Tory people in England who'd end up with a Tory government forever if Scotland left. My response to which was always it's about Scotland and how people see its future, it's not always about England or English people.

Sorry, bit of a rant. It is very, very annoying though!

 

[brogdale]

Just something that kind of does my head in in general. I can't tell you the number of times (as a Scottish person living in England) I've been told (completely seriously) there's a Tory government in Westminster or Labour will never form a Westminster government again because people in Scotland voted the wrong way (i.e. not Labour). Obviously no thought or analysis about how or why voting patterns have shifted so dramatically and why so many traditional Labour voters jumped ship.

And then there was Indyref where people were apparently voting yes because they hate English people and had some kind of responsibility to think of the poor non-Tory people in England who'd end up with a Tory government forever if Scotland left. My response to which was always it's about Scotland and how people see its future, it's not always about England or English people.

Sorry, bit of a rant. It is very, very annoying though!

That's OK; I can appreciate how annoying that sort of thing must be.

I'll be honest, my main interest in the SNP polling at 6% was that it beat the yellow tories into 4th place.

 

[brogdale]

Some Brexit right/wrong data from the latest YG fieldwork:


Wrong to Leave sentiment rising, with "North" showing an 11 point 'wrong' lead over 'right'.
Hmmm

 

[killer b]

why hmmm?

 

[brogdale]

why hmmm?

National difference, wrong/right = 5% points, whereas the 'North' often cited as pro-Leave/former red wall land = 11% point wrong/right lead.
Interesting, no?

 

[killer b]

'the north' includes the most of the significant metropolitan areas outside London, which will be skewing the results. The former red wall places will still be solid brexit.

 

[brogdale]

'the north' includes the most of the significant metropolitan areas outside London, which will be skewing the results. The former red wall places will still be solid brexit.

Quite possibly, but the figures offer an interesting take on the lazy media narrative of Leave North & Remain South.

 

[MrSki]

'the north' includes the most of the significant metropolitan areas outside London, which will be skewing the results. The former red wall places will still be solid brexit.

Is that a fact or just your opinion? I am not trolling you but a statement like that needs some justification. If it is a well informed opinion then fair enough but if it is a statement of fact then please provide your evidence.

 

[killer b]

It's an opinion, but it's supported by the results of the actual referendum (which saw places like Manchester and Liverpool deliver almost 60% for remain), and the results of the general election in December 2019 which saw large swathes of the leave supporting areas of the north deliver Conservative MPs.

What do you think's happened here? That since December last year there's been a massive change of opinion across the brexit supporting areas of the north?

 

[MrSki]

It's an opinion, but it's supported by the results of the actual referendum (which saw places like Manchester and Liverpool deliver almost 60% for remain), and the results of the general election in December 2019 which saw large swathes of the leave supporting areas of the north deliver Conservative MPs.

What do you think's happened here? That since December last year there's been a massive change of opinion across the brexit supporting areas of the north?

It is possible now the realisation of how it is going to fuck up the north along with rest of the UK. I am still to hear an argument as to how anyone will benefit. The recent polls I have seen have been in favour of remaining especially as it is all fucked up with Covid-19 without making it worse.

 

[killer b]

The polls have been in favour of remaining solidly for two years. I had a dig through the Yougov site (it's stopped working for me now, but you could do the same) and 'the north' has shown consistent leads for Brexit Wrong all year - in January, straight after the election, there was leads of 6% and 3% in the two polls I looked at.

 

[Dogsauce]

“Remain’ has pretty much always polled ahead, all that happened in the referendum was Leave got the vote out, because leavers were more passionate about it, aided with a bit of culture war leverage.

Election results are an indication only, because you don’t need more than 50% to take a seat. The election was more about people not liking Corbyn than euro stuff if you’ve seen polling on it.

 

[killer b]

Everything we're able to use to look at this only gives us an indication - but none of the indications I've seen have shown any significant amount of people changing their minds (in either direction) on Brexit, in the North or anywhere else. There is a gradual lead opening for remain nationally, which probably reflects the die-off of the older leave-leaning cohort and the coming of age of the younger remain-leaning cohort, plus some non-voters. But there's very few people changed their minds.

 

[brogdale]

It's an opinion, but it's supported by the results of the actual referendum (which saw places like Manchester and Liverpool deliver almost 60% for remain), and the results of the general election in December 2019 which saw large swathes of the leave supporting areas of the north deliver Conservative MPs.

What do you think's happened here? That since December last year there's been a massive change of opinion across the brexit supporting areas of the north?

I think it's a reasonable opinion tbh; it looks to me as though YG lump together the UK government's 3 standard Northern economic planning regions (NE, NW & Y+H) into one unit called "North":

(colour not significant)

So, yes that is all got the Metro urban areas outside of Scotland, E & W Midlands, Wales and the Souths.

I suppose it would be good to see the regional cross-breaks, week-on-week; with the national Wrong/Right lead more than doubling in a week (+5 to +11), be interesting to see whether or not that was reflected in the regions.

 

[killer b]

I suppose it would be good to see the regional cross-breaks, week-on-week; with the national Wrong/Right lead more than doubling in a week (+5 to +11), be interesting to see whether or not that was reflected in the regions.

You can do that if you're bothered, but it's a bit of a faff finding them... the regional crossbreaks are pretty small mind, it's probably not a great idea to read too much into fluctuations in them (unless they're sustained and in the same direction...)

 

[brogdale]

You can do that if you're bothered, but it's a bit of a faff finding them... the regional crossbreaks are pretty small mind, it's probably not a great idea to read too much into fluctuations in them (unless they're sustained and in the same direction...)

No, not really worth it; with a 1600 sample divided by 5 regions the sample would not be big enough to be significant.

I've always thought it would take a sustained period of economic hardship following 31/12/20 to shift sentiment, so that national change week-on-week looked surprising.

 

[brogdale]

Latest Ipsos-MORI polling on general sentiments (by EU referendum vote) indicates the depth of problems facing the Johnson regime.
Whatever we may feel about the credibility of such affective polling, a net decline of 52% in six months amongst 'Leave' respondents looks like a pretty spectacular collapse of faith.

 

[brogdale]

Over a quarter of self-identifying Tory voters responding to YG want Trump re-elected; double that of the national % (13%).

Useful metric for the extent of populist, far right-wing support in the UK?

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Assuming 3% represents at least one whole (politically confused) person, that means they found at least 33 Lib-Dem supporters. Wake up and smell the coffee people, they're getting ready for government.

 

[brogdale]

Last night's Opinium Westminster polling suggests that the LP civil war may well be depressing their support again?

 

[killer b]

It doesn't suggest anything until its sustained over multiple polls, as you know

 

[ska invita]

Over a quarter of self-identifying Tory voters responding to YG want Trump re-elected; double that of the national % (13%).

Useful metric for the extent of populist, far right-wing support in the UK?

Id suggest is potentially a lot higher than that, as Trump is a particularly obscene incarnation of that, especially for a UK audience... US MAGA's have a different set of buttons to UK bigots.