Political polling

[ska invita]

I saw this tweet from Owen Jones last week and meant to bring it up here



Brexit and Lib Dems aside, an interesting question is, what is the rump Tory vote as a percentage? As with Trump its hard to imagine what Johnson would have to do to start decreasing his rump vote. Is it 40%?

this was the Blair landslide 1997

Labour	Tony Blair	43.2
Conservative	John Major	30.7
Liberal Democrats	Paddy Ashdown	16.8

Owen Jones might have a point there - Lib Dems are never going to get up to 17% - double figures seems unlikely - can the Tories fall below 40%?

 

[oryx]

can the Tories fall below 40%?

The way they've dealt with Covid might make that a possibility? Dunno, I live in hope.

 

[agricola]

this was the Blair landslide 1997

Labour	Tony Blair	43.2
Conservative	John Major	30.7
Liberal Democrats	Paddy Ashdown	16.8

Owen Jones might have a point there - Lib Dems are never going to get up to 17% - double figures seems unlikely - can the Tories fall below 40%?

It will be difficult for them to drop that far below that, unless they stick with Johnson far longer than would be appropriate or something comes along to split their vote again.

The first is more of a possibility than it would normally be, given that they've already got rid of a lot of the reflex that has kicked out failing leaders in the past. However given what we already see they are doing (enriching themselves via awarding contracts to them and their mates) in the pandemic we will probably not see the likes of UKIP / the BP again - theyll be too focused on circling the wagons next election time, out of the fear what will happen to them if they lost power and it all came out.

 

[brogdale]

this was the Blair landslide 1997

Labour	Tony Blair	43.2
Conservative	John Major	30.7
Liberal Democrats	Paddy Ashdown	16.8

Owen Jones might have a point there - Lib Dems are never going to get up to 17% - double figures seems unlikely - can the Tories fall below 40%?

So much would seem to hinge on the outcome on and after 31/12/2020; I suspect that despite the on-going shitshow of the covid carnage (& possible 2nd wave) Johnson's party polling will remain disturbingly solid until the 52% get the glittering prize.

After that there's got to be the chance of a real decline in electoral fortunes as the realisation that nothing has changed/improved begins to sink in and the post (?) covid recession (that's deeper than neighbouring countries that actually addressed the virus) bites harder and the lettuces start to disappear from Lidl...

 

[brogdale]

Crossover in the leader approval ratings FWIW...

 

[brogdale]

Could be nothing, but a stabilisation could reflect a belief that we're moving on from Covid...and I've deffo heard the 'B' word used more over the last week...

 

[brogdale]

Maybe I'm being a bit slow here, but 10% for Brex in Wales...still? WTF

 

[Raheem]

Maybe I'm being a bit slow here, but 10% for Brex in Wales...still? WTF

View attachment 217210

BP has AMs (if they're still called that), so it still exists in Wales.

 

[brogdale]

BP has AMs (if they're still called that), so it still exists in Wales.

Yeah, the 2016 election --> 7 UKIP seats (4 now BP), but now...10% for a barely existing pressure group style party campaigning for something that's already happened?

 

[William of Walworth]

Yeah, the 2016 election --> 7 UKIP seats (4 now BP), but now...10% for a barely existing pressure group style party campaigning for something that's already happened?

Not that it has, for those who voted to 'Get Brexit Done' but had enough 'can't ever vote Tory'** left in them in December ....... you have to ask how much Brexit is still a thing for this type of voter now??

**still quite a thing for plenty of people in Wales -- older ones especially.

 

[brogdale]

The tory low 40's & Lab high 30's look quite stable for now:

 

[strung out]

Labour would be 20 points ahead by now under any other leader.

 

[strung out]

In fact...

 

[Wilf]

To say the least, Starmer is presented by plenty on open goals at the moment. Same time, Labour as so far out of it as any kind of political force or presence. Feels a bit like party politics has been suspended and not just because of the pandemic. Labour's shitness on brexit is still a major part of the problem. But yeah, things are so far out of joint that 20,000 surplus deaths are not even giving Labour a lead. Not a sentence I'd ever have expected to write.

 

[Supine]

Posted for the animation which is rather nifty

 

[brogdale]

That 40% stubbornly holding on for Brexit...whatever the shitshow that unfolds...

 

[William of Walworth]

Where the fuck does that +2% for the Yellow Shite come from?
Better have been from the Tories!! ... LDs haven't even got a sodding leader at the moment!
(OK, possibly just normal-ish sampling variations, maybe?)

 

[redsquirrel]

Unless it holds up over months +2% is just noise.

 

[Chz]

At this point in their existence, most upswings in the LD vote will be "The Tories are pissing me off again, but there's no way I'd ever vote Labour".
I think they've shed the vast majority of their followers who've ever voted Labour in their lives.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

It is all an unreal situation at the moment though isn’t it? While the furlough and lockdown continue and the Brexit endgame is still six months away (and still enjoying Unicorn status for a third of the population?) “normal” politics very unlikely to resume. What is alarming though, is that the lockdown appears to have given a subset of the population the time and lack of contact with people outside their internet bubble to go even further down the RW conspiracist rabbit hole, and fine tune their hatred and prejudices ahead of the imminent economic shitstorm......

 

[brogdale]

And another...this showing the vermin gaining slightly (wtmoe) possibly as the Cummings thing fades?

 

[Shechemite]

WTMOE?

 

[danny la rouge]

WTMOE?

Will tomorrow morning (be) over early.

 

[danny la rouge]

Wasting Toblerones makes oldies enraged

 

[brogdale]

With tory malevolence openly exposed.

 

[brogdale]

Sorry; within the margin of error.

dull, I know.

 

[oryx]

Wish That Motherfucker Out Earlier.

 

[Shechemite]

Sorry; within the margin of error..

Smug cultural marxist bastards eh

 

[JimW]

We Trust Men Of Eton.

 

[Raheem]

Will the McDonalds Open Ever?