Political polling

[killer b]

Anyway, this just out from the Political Studies Association, who're currently calling a narrow Tory victory from an average of their panel's predictions:

PSA’s 2019 General Election expert survey shows half of respondents predict the Conservatives will fall short of majority | The Political Studies Association (PSA)

 

[chilango]

...how come they're predicting 2 seats for the BxP and 2 for the Greens in one of those columns? That's not at all likely, no?

 

[killer b]

I guess half the politics professors in the UK are finger-in-the-air wankers?

 

[Hollis]

It's the hope that kills.

Well on the bright side, if Labour get hammered at least we won't have to agonise over fuck-up seats where the Lab/LibDems have successfully neutralised each other - e.g. Finchley and Golders Green/Kensingon

 

[Mr Moose]

More flipping like it. No overall majority territory this one. Get in.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

...how come they're predicting 2 seats for the BxP and 2 for the Greens in one of those columns? That's not at all likely, no?

Don't see how BP get any. Greens Brighton Pavilion plus maybe the ultra-remain bit of Bristol?

 

[strung out]

Don't see how BP get any. Greens Brighton Pavilion plus maybe the ultra-remain bit of Bristol?

Greens aren't getting close in Bristol. My Lib Dem member aunt is voting labour in Bristol West rather than green, which proves it IMO

 

[cupid_stunt]

More flipping like it. No overall majority territory this one. Get in.

Despite the Tories getting a small majority on 6.6% in 2015, John Curtice says that level of lead could well result in a hung parliament this time.



Looking good for Chuka.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here comes another from ComRes...



It shows a 1% lead increase compared to their poll conducted 2-5 Dec., but they also published another one conducted 4-5 Dec., and this one is 1% down on that one.

 

[Dogsauce]

Don't see how BP get any. Greens Brighton Pavilion plus maybe the ultra-remain bit of Bristol?

loads of green posters about here (though I am in the bit with three green city councillors) but labour MP is a remainer and known for it, so think they’ll be fine (had a big majority last time round).

 

[ska invita]

If you want some hope read thread:

 

[agricola]

If you want some hope read thread:

a twig to cling to!

 

[maomao]

If you want some hope read thread:

It really feels like they're just pulling numbers out of their arse there.

 

[Proper Tidy]

It really feels like they're just pulling numbers out of their arse there.

I dunno what you're taking about, why wouldn't I trust a twitter account with 3k followers pretending to be a phone over polling companies

 

[brogdale]

e2a deleted as not sure valid...will check.

 

[killer b]

I bet 90% of those 3000 followers are from the past 24 hours too.

 

[killer b]

YG usefully pulling out the 'scare the horses' trigger

Give over

 

[kabbes]

Yerwot? 3% lead? And others show 13?

 

[brogdale]

Yerwot? 3% lead? And others show 13?

Apols...it was bollux.

 

[The Boy]

e2a deleted as not sure valid...will check.

Edit: nm, you edited already

 

[Proper Tidy]

I'm confused, is that yougov screenshot bollocks or not

 

[ska invita]

I dunno what you're taking about, why wouldn't I trust a twitter account with 3k followers pretending to be a phone over polling companies

I didn't say it was reliable

 

[The Boy]

I'm confused, is that yougov screenshot bollocks or not

Is was posted by a spoof Twitter account. The legit Britain elects account has no sign of it.

 

[killer b]

Britain_erects is not a reliable source of polling data

 

[Proper Tidy]

Is was posted by a spoof Twitter account. The legit Britain elects account has no sign of it.

Just clocked the Britain_Erects

 

[brogdale]

Britain_erects is not a reliable source of polling data

Sorry...tired..and Bishops.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Sorry...tired..and Bishops.

Not even tea time yet

 

[Mr Moose]

Just clocked the Britain_Erects

It’s providing ‘Britain Elects’ with stiff competition.

 

[ska invita]

Britain_erects is not a reliable source of polling data

Hard numbers though.

 

[brogdale]

Not even tea time yet