Political polling

[killer b]

Would this be the same YouGov set up and run by senior Conservative activists and politicians?

Their MRP model was close last time, regardless who set them up.

 

[magneze]

I was going by seats, not %.

By my very rough (and maybe wrong) calculations a drop of 3.8 % in terms of seats from 339 is hung parliament. Not 10%.

 

[ska invita]

By my maths that reads 339 v 292 - majority of 47

not from Britain erects!

Well, Britain is about to erect a massive fucking penis as PM so might as well be

 

[killer b]

By my maths that reads 339 v 292 - majority of 47

Northern Ireland isn't included

 

[ignatious]

By my very rough (and maybe wrong) calculations a drop of 3.8 % in terms of seats from 339 is hung parliament. Not 10%.

I refer you to my previous answer.

 

[ska invita]

Northern Ireland isn't included

right ho - so take about 10 off that - 37. I reckon it'll end up nearer 30

 

[brogdale]

By my maths that reads 339 v 292 - majority of 47

Well, Britain is about to erect a massive fucking penis as PM so might as well be

Simplistically = maj of 28

339 vs 311 (although there's always the Speakers & SF)

 

[magneze]

I refer you to my previous answer.

*shrugs*

 

[killer b]

the csv file is here if you want to look at individual constituencies

https://t.co/BueBV4DFxi?amp=1

 

[chilango]

I've dug in and had a look at a handful of seats of personal interest.

There seem to be a lot well within the margin of error that could go different ways.

I think all outcomes from hung to clear Tory majority are still on the table depending on the day itself pans out.

 

[strung out]

the csv file is here if you want to look at individual constituencies

https://t.co/BueBV4DFxi?amp=1

Raab within a couple of points of losing his seat.

 

[Hollis]

Blimey 2% in it at Chingford. All the London LibDem seats aren’t looking remotely good other than Richmond Park.

Cheltenham, Guildford and Winchester the only other potentials..

 

[ffsear]

the csv file is here if you want to look at individual constituencies

https://t.co/BueBV4DFxi?amp=1

nice one

 

[Proper Tidy]

Seat changes:

Absolutely fuck that

 

[Proper Tidy]

I'm in now, the polls are lies, propaganda mate, not fucking having it

 

[elbows]

 

[Smangus]

Fuck , no idea of this shit , do I hope or despair?

 

[Part-timah]

Remember the Bannon strategy was to not only to vote for Trump but to eat away at the support for the opposition. The polls were off last time and the media played dumb in the most part. It is no coincident that top tories run some of these companies.

 

[ska invita]

Fuck , no idea of this shit , do I hope or despair?

hope Boris Johnson drives a JCB off a cliff tomorrow

 

[killer b]

NI poll here:

 

[Doctor Carrot]

It is no coincident that top tories run some of these companies.

Conspiranoid tosh.

 

[Proper Tidy]

NI poll here:

I've read the small print there and can't say I'm hot on NI electoral politics but haven't people pretty much universally been saying DUP would lose seats, wtf

 

[Part-timah]

Conspiranoid tosh.

Would you say the same about the press?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Electoral politics, load of shit

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Would you say the same about the press?

No, but there's a vast and cavernous difference between framing stories a certain way and printing outright lies and actively rigging polling data that could be easily detected by an army of statisticians.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

Most of the fieldwork took place before he stole a reporter's phone.

 

[Hollis]

What’s also depressing is looking back even small majorities have ended up staying in power for 5 years. Wilson in Oct 74 with 3, Major in 92 had 21.

 

[killer b]

I've read the small print there and can't say I'm hot on NI electoral politics but haven't people pretty much universally been saying DUP would lose seats, wtf

it has them losing one seat, but gaining the seat vacated by Sylvia Hermon, then another close.

 

[Part-timah]

No, but there's a vast and cavernous difference between framing stories a certain way and printing outright lies and actively rigging polling data that could be easily detected by an army of statisticians.

They are both propaganda weapons. There is no great fiendish conspiracy of fleets of pollsters fiddling data. All it takes is choosing a methodology that is helpful to your message.

 

[two sheds]

A gross oversimplification: Graphs show Brexit party Leave voters increasingly going to the tories, libdems increasingly tactically voting labour for second referendum? If so, Brexit voters nearly down to zero now so not many more to go. With the election Thursday it looks like there's just not enough time to go, unless there's a tactical surge on the day from Lib Dem.

I live in hope which is what kills you