Political polling

[brogdale]

Hard numbers though.

Oh God, now you've just reminded me of the HanCOCK semi clip that going around!

 

[Wilf]

It's the smutty spoof site related hope that kills yer!

 

[ska invita]

Do you want some more Twitter hope?
You know you do!

It passes the day.....

 

[Idris2002]

Do you want some more Twitter hope?
You know you do!

It passes the day.....

Friendship ended with polling firms - now random bloke on twitter is my friend.

 

[ska invita]

Friendship ended with polling firms - now random bloke on twitter is my friend.

Theres nothing quite like a spike on a random economics graph to make a point

 

[elbows]

There was a financial story yesterday which might correlate.

Even as Pound Rallies, Traders Wary of Post-Election Downside, Options Show

 

[ignatious]

Is there any convincing evidence that the financial markets are any more credible than the bookies as predictors of events?

 

[elbows]

Is there any convincing evidence that the financial markets are any more credible than the bookies as predictors of events?

In this instance it sounds like they are just responding to their own uncertainty, or in this case collection of uncertainties. I wouldnt try to fish any Labour government-specific concerns out of the financial data.

 

[brogdale]

Is the 2nd YG MRP out tonight?

 

[magneze]

Yes

 

[brogdale]

Yes

10?

 

[magneze]

10?

Yes

 

[killer b]

Focaldata (not sure either) have just released an MRP though if you wanted some numbers to sift through while you wait:



Focaldata MRP GE Predictions - 10.12.2019

 

[agricola]

MRP from Yougov

 

[brogdale]

Headline numbers:



not from Britain erects!

 

[magneze]

Apparently this puts a hung parliament within the margin of error.

 

[killer b]

also this:

 

[Flavour]

not looking too good then. but weren't yougov quite far out in 2017?

 

[ignatious]

not looking too good then. but weren't yougov quite far out in 2017?

I think their MRP was seen as the new gold standard. It’s all very depressing looking at that.

 

[killer b]

not looking too good then. but weren't yougov quite far out in 2017?

Their MRP model was close then, so it's now seen as the oracle. Although other MRPs (Ashcrofts for example) were predicting handsome tory majorities. So... they may have nailed it again. Or not. We'll find out around this time Thursday.

 

[ffsear]

Big reaction in GBP. Pollsters and their mates rigging the game!

 

[ignatious]

Apparently this puts a hung parliament within the margin of error.

Is the margin of error 10% then?

 

[magneze]

Is the margin of error 10% then?

They don't need an equal percentage for a hung parliament.

A lead of < 6% or something is enough.

 

[ignatious]

They don't need an equal percentage for a hung parliament.

I was going by seats, not %.

 

[Part-timah]

not looking too good then. but weren't yougov quite far out in 2017?

Would this be the same YouGov set up and run by senior Conservative activists and politicians?

 

[killer b]

These are the expected gains/losses

 

[chilango]

Still all to play for really then

 

[ffsear]

Conservatives set for majority but race has tightened significantly
https://t.co/sFt3JJhlgu?amp=1

 

[ignatious]

Pollsters and their mates rigging the game!

Of course they are.

 

[brogdale]

Seat changes: