I think it’s probably to do with the standard error for the population drawn from not actually being the same thing as the standard error for the population as a whole, due to the conditions that would link them being violated. In particular, I don’t think they’re likely to be allowing for model error at all.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Indeed. ie if all our assumptions are correct, the standard error is...
And as we know, that's a whopping big If.
It depends on what you mean by weighting for age. Using weights to correct for sample bias can make a big difference, but it is absolutely legitimate and necessary. Weighting to correct what you think is a turnout bias is much more dubious.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It was both.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes...37% Tory in Wales was the cause for my Blimey!
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I assume you mean, as in the Tories scoring so well in Wales?
ETA: Answered whilst I was replying.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Well...that's just fucking atrocious and doesn't bode at all well for the other "labour leave areas'.I assume you mean, as in the Tories scoring so well in Wales?
ETA: Answered whilst I was replying.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Indeed.
I now think a hung parliament is out of the question, and I am starting to think it could end up being a lot more than a tiny majority.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Fez909
toilet expert
Yep, lots. And this one is the best one for Corbyn by far...but possibly an outlier.
Who will be the next Prime Minister? - Britain Elects
And more. Anthony Wells did a good blog post on it, which I will link to tomorrow. (On phone atm)
Plumdaff
joy in people
It's a terrible poll. The only hope for it is I've been out in Cardiff North (one of the marginals Labour are set to lose according to that poll) and there's no sense on the doors that the Tories are going to retake it. Of course, if that poll is right (and in 2017 it underestimated Labour and Plaid and marginally overestimated Conservatives) and it's a non-uniform swing it's going to be a torrid night for Labour in North Wales.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
I would remember polls are there to manipulate opinion, not to objectively represent it.
They want to demoralise the large number of Labour activists. It’s working on those that I know. If you’re a Labour activist stick to your plan.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
What are you gibbering about, fool?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Polling companies are run by the Joooos mate, that's what our new friend is getting at.
This is pretty out of order.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
Could provide some basis for the accusation of anti-semitism?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Really?
It's all conspiraloon stuff about the polling companies existing to move opinion, rather than reporting it: who do you think our friend thinks is behind that - International finance or whatever is today's code word for the Rothschild's?
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
Maybe ask rather than weirdly assume my post was based on bigotry.
I dunno, why don't you ask him? It's out of order to jump straight to the antisemitism though - it's mostly connections to the tory party people tend to highlight IME.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Go on then, do you have any actual evidence (not four hour videos on YouTube) that polling companies seek to change opinion rather than just report it, and that they do so on behalf of shadowy groups or interests?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I mean I suppose if it was the Jews behind this, why would they be trying to demoralise the LibDems as well?
Maybe there's a hitherto unknown Jewish-Squirrel alliance?
Similar threads
