Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

[Backatcha Bandit]

August ASPO newsletter:

pdf: http://216.187.75.220/newsletter44.pdf

Word: http://216.187.75.220/newsletter44.doc

Also:

BP CEO Browne Says Oil Prices Aren't Likely to Decline Soon

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc Chief Executive John Browne said he doesn't expect the price of crude oil to fall soon given the insecurity of supplies. The price isn't likely to jump much higher, he added.

``With insecurity of supply the price seems to be holding up quite high; one day it will come down, but not in the very short term I'm afraid,'' said Browne in an interview on the British Broadcasting Corp.'s Breakfast with Frost TV program. Still, ``I doubt it will spike much higher.'' London-based British Petroleum in Europe's largest oil company.

Crude oil rose to a record in New York trading last week on concern that supply from the world's top exporters will be disrupted as fuel consumption surges.

Bloomberg

Anyone catch Frost this morning? Was Brown smiling as he said this?

Oil prices help BP boost profits
Oil giant BP has reported a 23% rise in quarterly profits, thanks to a "robust trading environment".

Recent high oil prices helped BP boost net profit for the three months to June to $3.9bn (£2.1bn), from $3.2bn for the same period last year.

For the first half of 2004 overall, its profits were up to $8.6bn from $7.2bn.

The figures came in at the bottom of market expectations. But BP said it was well on track, and would be continuing with its share buy-back programme.

BBC

'Beyond Petroleum', my arse.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oh dear.....

Opec 'unable to pump more oil'

The president of oil producers' cartel Opec has said oil prices are at "crazy" levels, but that Opec nations are powerless to cool the market. "There is no more supply," said Opec president Purnomo Yusgiantoro after oil prices hit a fresh peak following warnings of an attack on the US.

His remarks pushed prices even higher, topping $44 a barrel for a new record on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude rose 33 cents in early trade to $40.30. The $44.24 price for US light sweet crude touched on Nymex on Tuesday morning is unparalleled in the 21-year history of electronic trading on the exchange.

US oil traded on Nymex had closed at $43.82 on Monday, the highest finish in the New York exchange's 21-year history.

 

[sparticus]

This upcoming conference

http://www.cges.co.uk/pdf-lib/programmeEighthSymposium.pdf

caught my eye and in particular the last session including discussion with

Fadhil Chalabi http://www.agenceglobal.com/article.asp?id=128 who is apparently Ahmad Chalabi's cousin, Iraq's former oil minister and now executive director of CGES

Ian

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Here's a little gem from the BBC yesterday:

Why are oil prices so high?

Conspicuous by it's absence is the word 'DEPLETION'. It's a 'dirty' word?

So, it seem that only yesterday we were being reassured that OPEC says it has up to 1.5 million bpd in spare capacity and that Yukos Allowed to Use Accounts to Keep Producing Oil.

Today we hear that Oil prices race higher again as supply fears linger and that Russia revokes permission for Yukos on bank accounts.

Hmmm.

 

[slaar]

It does seem crazy that article doesn't even mention the fact that globally we're at the start of a downward trend in supply and in the middle of a huge expansion in demand.

 

[TrueStory]

Here's a little gem from the BBC yesterday:

Why are oil prices so high?

Conspicuous by it's absence is the word 'DEPLETION'. It's a 'dirty' word?

We could even see the "reverse logic reasoning" in action: crude oil prices are high because of "INSUFFICIENT US REFINERY CAPACITY"

 

[academia]

What's going to happen when it becomes too expensive to fly passenger jets?
There'll be no more easyJet, that's for sure.

Perhaps we'll soon enter an age of nuclear powered cruise liners.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Just as a little aside, I see ADZP's article on 'the end of cheap oil' (used on the BBC site) has made it onto Al Jazeerah's website: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/416F7BA6-90FC-48E6-8F4C-CA30FDD6EB39.htm

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Published in the current edition of 'The Ecologist' an article by Mitchell Anderson:
We are finally running out of cheap gas - Good

Our long-standing addiction to cheap oil has cost us dearly in terms of health, global security, human rights and a changing climate. It has also long stifled investment and innovation in alternative energy sources and technologies. Maybe we should look at expensive gas as an opportunity rather than a crisis.

Interesting article. Just tell me he's not on SSRIs.

Oh yeah... Red Adair died yesterday. RIP, Red. So it goes.

 

[Barking_Mad]

The violence in Iraq sends oil higher still - Basra oil terminal stops production as Sadr says he will launch attacks against it.

Oil Hits Record as Iraq Cuts Output
August 09, 2004 1:02:00 PM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices hit fresh record highs on Monday after a Shi'ite Muslim uprising forced Iraq to shut down its southern oil production, reinforcing concern over tight international supplies.

U.S. light crude rose just over a dollar to $44.97 a barrel, the highest price since the New York Mercantile Exchange launched oil futures in 1983. London Brent crude also jumped a dollar to $41.65 a barrel.

Prices reacted to OPEC producer Iraq halting operations in the southern oil production center of Basra because of threats from the Mehdi Army militia of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

``Pumping from the southern oilfields to storage tanks at Basra was stopped today after threats made by Al-Sadr,'' the official told Reuters. ``It will remain stopped until the threat is over,'' he said.

Edit: I was watching Bloomberg yesterday and one analyst said that $50 a barrel is a definate possibility if it goes over $45 a barrel.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

= Scratch another 1.9 million bpd off OPEC output.

OPEC meeting on 14/9 to discuss increasing output by 1 ~ 1.5 million bpd.

Venezuela 'recall' election 15/8.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oh dear, demand estimate has been revised upwards to an extra 750,000 barrels a day.

World oil demand estimate raised

The International Energy Agency has revised upwards its estimate of world oil demand, quashing hopes of an imminent decline in oil prices. The IEA said in its monthly oil market report that demand for oil was running at 82.2 million barrels a day, 750,000 more than previously thought. The upwards revision means that daily demand has grown by a record 2.5 million barrels a day this year.

Brent crude futures edged up nine cents to $41.37 as traders digested the news. US light sweet crude futures, which briefly touched a 21-year record of $45.04 on Tuesday, rose 15 cents to $44.67......

........The IEA added that the effective spare capacity of oil producers' cartel Opec had narrowed to about 600,000 barrels a day in July, following recent efforts to keep pace with rising demand. The IEA, set up thirty years ago to advise oil consuming nations, said world demand would rise by a further 1.8 million barrels next year to 84 million barrels a day.

It added that Opec's production capacity would rise by 400,000 barrels a day this year, and by a further 700,000 barrels a day in 2005. "The market is tight, production and infrastructure capacity is less than desired, and uncertainties continue to weigh on the market," the agency said.

On a positive note, the IEA added that it did not expect Russian supplies to be disrupted, despite widespread concerns over the future of local oil giant Yukos, responsible for one fifth of the country's output.

 

[TrueStory]

Oh dear, demand estimate has been revised upwards to an extra 750,000 barrels a day.

World oil demand estimate raised

The IEA added that the effective spare capacity of oil producers' cartel Opec had narrowed to about 600,000 barrels a day in July, following recent efforts to keep pace with rising demand.
The IEA, set up thirty years ago to advise oil consuming nations, said world demand would rise by a further 1.8 million barrels next year to 84 million barrels a day.
It added that Opec's production capacity would rise by 400,000 barrels a day this year, and by a further 700,000 barrels a day in 2005.

Well, if we sum up the numbers, than in 2005 we could have production increase 0.6 + 0.4 + 0.7 = 1.7 million b/d meanwhile we expect to have consumption increase of 1.8 million b/d. That's exactly 100,000 b/d less than expected consumption... - this is valid if we consider the countries outside OPEC will sustain this years production.

 

[TrueStory]

George Monbiot: Goodbye, kind world

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1279603,00.html

"We live," the cover story of the current Spectator tells us, "in the happiest, healthiest and most peaceful era in human history." And who in the rich world would dare to deny it? The aristocrats, the cardinals, Prince Charles, the National Front, perhaps: those, in other words, whose former social dominance has been usurped by the times. But the rest of us? Step forward the man or woman who would exchange modern medicine for the leech, sewerage for the gutter, the washing machine for the mangle, European Union for European wars, relative democracy for absolute monarchy. Not many takers, then.

But the party is over. In 2,000 words, the Spectator provides plenty of evidence to support its first contention: "Now is good." It provides none to support its second: "The future will be better." Ours are the most fortunate generations that have ever lived. They are also the most fortunate generations that ever will.

 

[citydreams]

Can anyone confirm the reliable rumour I heard yesterday that the US are stocking up on oil to fill their underground reservoirs now whilst the price of oil is at an all time high!?

I find this amazing and would love to know how much they are stocking.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Worth pointing out that in June the UK became a net oil importer for the first time in a decade.

 

[TrueStory]

Worth pointing out that in June the UK became a net oil importer for the first time in a decade.

Production is falling 8..10% a year. In 2007 UK will be net oil importer for the whole year.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5de933a2-eb09-11d8-91ae-00000e2511c8.html

 

[TrueStory]

...the US are stocking up on oil to fill their underground reservoirs now whilst the price of oil is at an all time high!?

I find this amazing and would love to know how much they are stocking.

Since the oil is priced in dollars, and US can "print" as many dollars as they want -> the price doesn't matter.
They have reserves for about 3 months - which is a lot, because they are consuming 7..8 Gb a year.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oil has hit another new high today

Oil at new high on Iraqi violence

The price of oil has reached yet new record highs due to continuing concern at the ongoing violence in Iraq. In New York the price of a barrel of US light crude rose 33 cents to $45.13, while in London, Brent crude climbed 50 cents to $42.07. The fresh highs come after militiamen loyal to Moqtada Sadr threatening new attacks on Iraqi oil facilities.

The threats have forced Iraqi officials to close one pipeline as a precaution, and oil exports are down by half. Iraq is only currently able to export oil at a rate of 41,000 barrels an hour, compared with the usual 80,000.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3558414.stm

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Can anyone confirm the reliable rumour I heard yesterday that the US are stocking up on oil to fill their underground reservoirs now whilst the price of oil is at an all time high!?

I find this amazing and would love to know how much they are stocking.

Aug. 6, 2004, 11:49AM
Bush adding more oil to U.S. petroleum reserve
Reuters News Service

The Bush administration said today it was adding more oil to the U.S. emergency petroleum reserve, despite record high crude prices and strong oil demand.

The Interior Department said it awarded contracts to ChevronTexaco Corp. and Royal Dutch/Shell Group's Shell Oil to deliver more than 100,000 barrels of crude a day to the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The oil will be delivered over a six-month period beginning on Oct. 1.

The administration is not buying the oil going into the reserve. The crude is coming from energy companies that turn over to the government a portion of the oil they drill on federal leases as royalties, instead of paying cash royalties.*

The Bush administration has been criticized by energy experts and some politicians for taking oil off the market to put in the reserve at a time of high fuel prices and strong petroleum demand...

...The Bush administration said it was better to have a large stockpile of oil on hand to respond to any major supply disruption and the amount of crude going into the reserve will not have a big effect on prices anyway.

"Filling the reserve to ensure that America has a ready supply of crude to prepare for any major supply disruption is vitally important," said an Energy Department spokeswoman.

"Current deliveries to the SPR are a tiny fraction, only 0.15 percent, of global oil demand, and have very little impact on oil prices," she said.

The Interior Department said it was on track to fill the emergency reserve to its 700-million-barrel capacity by the middle of next year.

The stockpile, created by Congress in the mid 1970s after the Arab oil embargo, currently holds 665 million barrels of crude in underground caverns at four sites in Texas and Louisiana.

*That's why the 'price' is largely irrelevant.

Also covered here.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Sudan says West wants its oil and gold

KHARTOUM (Reuters) - Sudan's president has accused the West of exploiting the Darfur conflict in the hope of seizing the country's gold and oil, but Washington has replied that its only aim is to halt mass murder and starvation..

..Sudan's two main oil fields are in the south and Khartoum hopes more will be discovered. The country, Africa's largest by area, earns about $2 billion a year from output of about 300,000 barrels per day. Analysts say Darfur itself could have oil.

This BBC piece from last november was interesting:

Sudanese uprooted by oil quest

A human rights group says hundreds of thousands of farmers have been driven from their land in southern Sudan to allow firms to drill for oil.

The US-based group Human Rights Watch accuses the Sudanese Government and big oil companies of a policy of division and displacement.

A good 'Economist' article from 4 yrs ago and one more from the beeb from '02: Sudan oil attacks 'to continue' give some recent history.

 

[TrueStory]

The administration is not buying the oil going into the reserve. The crude is coming from energy companies that turn over to the government a portion of the oil they drill on federal leases as royalties, instead of paying cash royalties.*

*That's why the 'price' is largely irrelevant.

if they have an agreement with government which states that x % of the drilled oil has to be given to the state, than price is irrelevant - however usually oil concessions are buyed with money not with oil.

 

[TrueStory]

The Interior Department said it was on track to fill the emergency reserve to its 700-million-barrel capacity by the middle of next year.

=> Next year we can expect another war against another oil-rich country.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oil price hits new record as markets fear a global shortage

The price of crude oil hit record highs again yesterday on concern that supply disruptions in Iraq and elsewhere would leave the world dangerously short. The immediate worry came from fighting in Iraq but analysts also pointed to the prospect of supply problems in Venezuela, Russia and the Gulf of Mexico, which has been hit by storms.

David Thurtell, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "Everything's gone wrong in the oil market recently. If you wanted to paint the worst scenario picture, you couldn't do much better." US light crude rose to a fresh high of $45.75 a barrel before settling 70 cents higher at $45.50. In London, Brent crude reached a new peak of $42.56, and ended up 72 cents at $42.29.Analysts said oil appeared to be heading over $50.

Julian Lee, of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London consultancy, said demand was surging at a time when supply was uncertain and world stocks were low. "Most of the past spikes have been caused by temporary supply disruptions. What we are now seeing is a very strong rate of demand," he said. In particular, Chinese demand has out-stripped all expectations as the country's businesses have resorted to using oil-powered generators due to the inability of the electricity network to cope with their needs. Mr Lee said even without issues such as instability in Iraq, the oil price would still "be in the 30s" - a historically high level - on the basis of demand.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oil has hit another high of $45.90 after an explosion at the third biggest refinery in the US. Other factors include Venezuela's recall result and the tropical storms in The Gulf of Mexico.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040813&ID=3911688

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Well, today saw $46.91. Anyone detect... a pattern emerging?

Anyway, here's a thing I stumbled across from CSM:

World Bank ignores its own advice

The report called on the World Bank to improve its practices in the energy industry by setting in place better mechanisms to ensure that money gained from extractive projects will be used for basic needs such as education and health, instead of weapons. It urged the World Bank to adopt policies to guarantee the rights of people affected by large extractive projects, especially indigenous people. Most important, the report concluded that the World Bank should stop financing oil and coal projects altogether.

The bank's board of directors finally discussed this report, known as the Extractive Industries Review, on Aug. 3 and opted merely to endorse minimal commitments to change the way the bank does business. For example, while they pledged to increase renewable energy financing by 20 percent annually, the base line the lender is using is so low that the target for renewable support in 2005 is lower than the bank's loans for renewables in 1994. Currently fossil fuel financing at the World Bank exceeds renewable lending by a factor of 17 to 1.

Just ring 0800 88 77 77, citizens.

(This number apparently used to be the Office of Gas & Electricity Markets helpline, but would now appear to route through to preparingforemergencies.gov.uk ).

 

[Barking_Mad]

Oh and there it goes over $47 a barrel - and its not going to stop yet by the looks of it.

Supply worries push oil to record

Oil prices have continued their record-breaking run on Wednesday, busting through the $47-mark amid concerns that demand will outstrip supply.
US light crude hit $47.03 in New York, taking gains for this year to more than 44%. Brent crude also rose in London, touching $43.22 a barrel.

A main worry is that output is close to its limit and any disruption to supply would prove difficult to smooth out. At the same time, an economic recovery is boosting the world's thirst for oil. Emerging economies are proving the most difficult to satisfy, with Chinese imports of crude oil jumping 40% in the first seven months of 2004 from a year earlier.

Some analysts are predicting that oil prices will advance above $50, while governments and firms are already warning of the damage that higher raw material and fuel costs are likely to do.

 

[pbman]

What happned to all the "wars about oil "crap?

 

[Barking_Mad]

What happned to all the "wars about oil "crap?

LOL - do you understand anything?

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Good man, Adzp!

The elusive truth about oil reserve figures
By Adam Porter in France

Thursday 12 August 2004

Talking about oil, there is little doubt that around 45-50% of it rests in five Middle Eastern countries - Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. But how much is there of it?

The question seems straightforward, simplistic even. But just a cursory glance at the state of the world's remaining oil leads one to think otherwise...

Go, boy!!!