Moldova - but not Moldova, us...

[kebabking]

This isn't it a thread about Moldova, it's about us - what we think about the practice and morality of European security, and how our views might have changed, or be in a state of flux, or just be a bit all over the place.

So, I saw this tweet, and it made me think: in light of Ukraine, and wider Russian behaviour/rhetoric about other European states, what do we/you think should happen were Moldova - a fairly poor eastern European state that isn't in the EU or NATO, but has started the application process to the EU - ask the EU, or NATO, or individual states, for assistance in securing it's sovereignty, including the deployment of military forces to that country while it fears invasion?



Should we cross the street?

 

[dylanredefined]

Yes. Deterring Russia is cheaper for all of us in the long run.

 

[Nikkormat]

Yes. Direct intervention in Ukraine has sensible reasons to oppose, but Moldova is a step beyond; I think Central & Eastern European states would see Russian occupation of Moldova as confirmation of the beginning of WW3.

 

[tonysingh]

Quite apart from the need to protect our own security by intervening/helping and thereby deterring whoever did invade Moldova, there's also a moral imperative.

 

[platinumsage]

I‘m not sure that Russia even has the capability to invade Moldova any more. They‘d have to get there for a start. I guess they could try chucking a few missiles at it but they seem to be running out of those, the good ones at any rate.

 

[NoXion]

Russia seems to be reluctant to engage NATO, despite their threats. Surely if Moldova invites NATO forces to help guard their border, that should do the trick?

I can appreciate that they might not want to do that for whatever reason, but otherwise I'm not seeing any immediate issues. But maybe someone else will.

 

[steeplejack]

The choreography here is very intertwined & complex.

I think Sandu & co. are rightly erring on the side of caution. The EU accession process is under way but the reality is Russia is still a very big deal through energy supplies and links to both legitimate & criminal business networks, & the media & political traction that brings.

Transnistria- in some ways a blueprint for the absurd “people’s republics” in Donetsk & Luhansk- is a dirty sink for Russia where all kinds of nasties have been funnelled through in the last 3 decades- human trafficking, weapons trafficking, smuggling, money-laundering, industrial-scale theft & corruption. The thing is it’s not 20 years ago with Smirnov as “President”. There appears to be quite a bit of ambivalence towards Russia now and an understated desire to throw the lot in with Sandu’s European direction from the Tiraspol leadership.

It’s a waiting game for a while yet in both Chisniau & Tiraspol. Neither the national government nor the breakaway authorities want anything to do with Russia’s parallel universe unfolding in Ukraine. The Tiraspol authorities will go through the motions you feel but will do their damndest to avoid escalation.

Speaking of parallel universes, I suspect EU / the Romanians will send beefed up “peacekeepers” to Moldova if Odessa fell and the Ukrainians were gradually ground down by weight of numbers. That prospect looks ever less likely with every passing day, however.

Its such a complicated patchwork of a place and I do get frustrated by some of the very crude “Romanian speakers v Russian speakers” binary you read about so often.

On "should we held a UN-led stabilisation force to help defend Moldova in the event it's directly menaced by Russia" then yes we should, of course. Anything else will be interpreted as weakness by the Russians. The retired American geenral David Petraues suggested that Moldova needed urgent shoring up at the end of February.

The good news- Putin may as well declare he's invading Zaire and installing the remains of Mobutu Sese Seko as General Secretary of the People's Republic of Kinshasa. Thet don’t have the ability to do much more than threaten Moldova, at present, IMO. Hence Sandu's measured caution.

 

[kebabking]

This is an excellent point - there was a map of Ireland floating about with the predominantly English speaking bits in one colour, and the Gaeltacht in another, making the point that if you thought that the English speaking bits wanted to rejoin the UK, you'd be smoking industrial quantities of Crack for your breakfast....

 

[NoXion]

On "should we held a UN-led stabilisation force to help defend Moldova in the event it's directly menaced by Russia" then yes we should, of course. Anything else will be interpreted as weakness by the Russians. The retired American geenral David Petraues suggested that Moldova needed urgent shoring up at the end of February.

Not sure how it works exactly, but if it's a UN operation, could not Russia veto it as a permanent member of the Security Council?

 

[steeplejack]

Yeah I was writing too quickly. It would prob have to be an EU badged thing. Can’t be NATO - unless a view is taken that Putin will not reach for the nuclear football over 3,000 peacekeepers from around the EU

 

[steeplejack]

This is a decent write up of the current situation in Moldova

 

[steeplejack]

Maybe worth resurrecting this as Moldova is "embattled" presently and lots of tension around as Russia seeks to interfere to its advantage.

Rumours of a Shor-led coup backed by the Russians circulating for a while now as well as disinformation about Transnistria being rolled up by a Ukrainian force to neutralise the threat to Western Ukraine from it - a battalion of 1500 Russians and a big Soviet era arms dump.

Meanwhile whilst President Sandu has managed to appoint a new government under PM Recean (replacing the Gavrilita government which collapsed under pressure of 35% inflation and associated horrendous cost of living), and receives warm words from Biden, her party is slipping away badly in the polls as people who were already badly impoverished are now getting desperate, as mortgages increase and they're unable to afford basic foodstuffs on miserable pensions. Political forces much more friendly to the Kremlin (Moldova's Communists, Shor) are jockeying for position and if they get to power lots of things will change quickly and nastily for the western "coalition".

A small window of time for the EU to engage seriously with this problem I suspect and in fairness they are doing so. Trouble is Moldova does not have time to build up what were pretty much on-paper-only armed forces, and thus security will be reliant on EU kit and possibly NATO / US security advisers.

(E2A: could a mod editor move this one to world politics? Not sure what it's doiung in UK politics)

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe worth resurrecting this as Moldova is "embattled" presently and lots of tension around as Russia seeks to interfere to its advantage.

Rumours of a Shor-led coup backed by the Russians circulating for a while now as well as disinformation about Transnistria being rolled up by a Ukrainian force to neutralise the threat to Western Ukraine from it - a battalion of 1500 Russians and a big Soviet era arms dump.

Meanwhile whilst President Sandu has managed to appoint a new government under PM Recean (replacing the Gavrilita government which collapsed under pressure of 35% inflation and associated horrendous cost of living), and receives warm words from Biden, her party is slipping away badly in the polls as people who were already badly impoverished are now getting desperate, as mortgages increase and they're unable to afford basic foodstuffs on miserable pensions. Political forces much more friendly to the Kremlin (Moldova's Communists, Shor) are jockeying for position and if they get to power lots of things will change quickly and nastily for the western "coalition".

A small window of time for the EU to engage seriously with this problem I suspect and in fairness they are doing so. Trouble is Moldova does not have time to build up what were pretty much on-paper-only armed forces, and thus security will be reliant on EU kit and possibly NATO / US security advisers.

(E2A: could a mod editor move this one to world politics? Not sure what it's doiung in UK politics)

The traditional thing if you want something moved is to report the op and say what you want done, rather than tagging one of the mods as they may not be about for a few days

 

[steeplejack]

This morning's update: Russian government sources claim Azov is about to attack Transnistria, the eastern "independent" enclave of Moldova populated largely by Russian-speakers. A claim denied by the government in Chisniau. Lots of disinformation stuff presently.

 

[Supine]

This morning's update: Russian government sources claim Azov is about to attack Transnistria, the eastern "independent" enclave of Moldova populated largely by Russian-speakers. A claim denied by the government in Chisniau. Lots of disinformation stuff presently.

Presumably this means russia are about to go in to defend against this so called azov attack.

 

[steeplejack]

Presumably this means russia are about to go in to defend against this so called azov attack.

How? Their propsects of launching an attack across Ukrainian controlled airspace are slim at best. They don;t have enough people in Transnistria and the quality of the personnel stationed there is supposedly pisspoor. This is a lot of noise. There may be serious destabilisation efforts but unlikely to be a direct military attack.