ViolentPanda said:
If you're a spud, perhaps thats the case.
You are. You're making assumptions outwith my post.
I'm not referring to a "pensions crisis" (most of which putative causes are avoidable or remediable very easily), I'm talking about an increased demand on overall state resources (as I said in my previous post) due to a couple of mutually-reinforcing factors: Improved healthcare=longer lifespan=increased demand on health and social care provision=improved healthcare (via greater profits and increased R & D to serve the increasing customer base).
Some disconnected thoughts:
OK, the issues relate to longer lifespans and an ageing population. Immigrants are on average younger and earn slightly more than the general populace, thus easing pressures on the treasury.
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I'm not afraid of the grand themes, in a way they should be easier than snapshots. A snapshot has alsorts of external influences where it is difficult to gauge the relative importances. A grand theme asks 'in total what is happening?' Answering that is more a process of stripping out complexities rather than adding them in.
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Really when it comes down to it we are talking about two things here.
Firstly we are talking about the relative sizes of the working population to the population and if we stick to the snapshot we are implicitly talking about the treasury making money through taxes. However this has just complicated the issue unnecessarily. The tax issue is just refracted through the issue of a larger, more exploitable population.
Secondly we are talking about the necessity for greater treasury spending, principally on the NHS. Its the dynamics here that I'm least clear on. However it does occur to me that the sending countries will increase their proportion of the populace needing healthcare just as the receiving countries decrease theirs (to be pedantic, the increase and the decrease won't be in proportion with each other).
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However in general, I think the real question is, "will crises be avoided by prudent economic policy or will they merely be delayed?"
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Mind you all this is pretty obscure.