Liz Truss’s time is up

[Smokeandsteam]

Everyone agreed his replacement would be a cunt, from memory the main issue was that you kept calling people idiots for celebrating Johnson's discomfort.

I hoped for an extended period of Johnson's discomfort. Was it you who reported the cheering workers?

 

[Rob Ray]

Was it you who reported the cheering workers?

Eh?

 

[SysOut]

How would you go about getting rid of private property?

When one has the power to do so, thus clearly after some sort of revolution in which a disciplined, well organised socialist group grabbed the power.
At the moment, no such thing exists, even though the circumstances are moving, once again, towards instability and hence, feasibly, revolution. The conflict is between rulers, of course, nationally and internationally: the two parts of the right, liberals and conservatives (like in Russia 1917) and internationally the USA and those who still refuse to submit to it.
We must not be fooled by the term "anti-capitalist". Capitalism can be seen as the liberal economy as opposed to the land-owning conservative economy. Mobile wealth versus immobile wealth. (as one popular french historian put it).

 

[belboid]

It's not sneering. Liberal left discourse (and by that I mean social media but also when you talk to some of them) is saturated with a) their sense of their own superiority

Phew, good thing there are no Only Worker in the Village types who do the same thing

 

[elbows]

The tory/Truss plan is betting the UK Economy on this lever. It will though, in the short term, work (and remember Truss and Kwarteng are not thinking further ahead than 18 months). If the Tory plan is to borrow (and then 'spend') around £200-£250Bn then growth is almost inevitable as more money starts to circulate around the system. In fact, it would take a herculean effort for an economy not to grow with so much money pumped in to it.

I dont agree. The recession is considered to be pretty much unavoidable.

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[SysOut]

Only Worker in the Village

An interesting economy.
Everyone self-employed, or millionaires-in-waiting.

 

[steveo87]

I wonder what those "difficult decisions" will turn out to be.

NHS no longer free at the point of need? Cut benefits? Criminalise strike action? Disband legal aid entirely? etc. etc.

Legal aid, there'll be less of a kick off with it. I know from experience that you only really think about it when you need it.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I dont agree. The recession is considered to be pretty much unavoidable.

Don’t agree with what?

 

[elbows]

Don’t agree with what?

Your 'growth is almost inevitable' stuff.

 

[belboid]

The money the idiot Truss* is borrowing will go to subsidise power company profits. She hasn’t said she’ll do any actual investment has she? Beyond stuff that’s vaguely supportive of levelling up. Growth is a long way from inevitable, indeed the opposite is far more likely.


* it is perfectly possible to be a fucking idiot and a vicious piece of shit. God knows why anyone would argue differently

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Your 'growth is almost inevitable' stuff.

Care to explain why or is it one line posts day?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The money the idiot Truss* is borrowing will go to subsidise power company profits. She hasn’t said she’ll do any actual investment has she? Beyond stuff that’s vaguely supportive of levelling up. Growth is a long way from inevitable, indeed the opposite is far more likely.


* it is perfectly possible to be a fucking idiot and a vicious piece of shit. God knows why anyone would argue differently

The current growth forecast is based on expected energy costs before the government announcement capping the costs. Therefore most households will now have ‘more money’ than was previously expected. If they spend only some of that it is more than expected by the forecast. That means more consumptive growth than expected overall.

The risk for Truss is the cost of borrowing. Who they give the money to is irrelevant for the purpose of measuring growth.

 

[two sheds]

Won't a lot of those just not go into debt as much as they would have done? So still be limited to spending what they need?

 

[belboid]

The current growth forecast is based on expected energy costs before the government announcement capping the costs. Therefore most households will now have ‘more money’ than was previously expected. If they spend only some of that it is more than expected by the forecast. That means more consumptive growth than expected overall.

The risk for Truss is the cost of borrowing. Who they give the money to is irrelevant for the purpose of measuring growth.

Bollocks. The ‘cap’ is still vastly higher than a year ago. Inflation will still be sky high and outstripping pay rises (probably). The tax cuts give the lowest paid 63p a month. Thus there’ll be barely any growth from consumption, far more likely to be the exact opposite. And who they give the dish to is 100% central to determining whether there is growth.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Won't a lot of those just not go into debt as much as they would have done? So still be limited to spending what they need?

Yes, in some cases but not all. We’d know more about the precise numbers if the OBR had been asked to produce a forecast - but they haven’t.

 

[belboid]

Won't a lot of those just not go into debt as much as they would have done? So still be limited to spending what they need?

Yes, he’s talking nonsense. I think the only economist who agrees with him is Patrick Minford.

 

[elbows]

Care to explain why or is it one line posts day?

Its hard to find anyone other than you that is predicting growth. Are you really claiming we are going to avoid recession?

Consumer spending already fell more than expected in August.

People were already squeezed by earlier energy price rises, and the Truss stuff doesnt reverse those.

The effect of interest rate rises need to be considered.

Sterling versus the dollar tells its own story.

There are increasing concerns that there will be a global recession. Bad news for most countries, and for a whole bunch of reasons the UK is more exposed than others to various negative forces these days.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Then you don't understand socialism, hence the inverted commas.
We'll leave it at that. The UK has never had any viable leftism.
It's just been that Bernard Cribbins guy in the bowler hat, criticising the worker digging the hole; "you're digging it round, but it ought to be square."
But who got the hole dug?

The UK may be lacking in 'viable leftism' but apparently is awash with hyperbole, arrogance and lack of self awareness. Keep up the good work!

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Bollocks. The ‘cap’ is still vastly higher than a year ago. Inflation will still be sky high and outstripping pay rises (probably). The tax cuts give the lowest paid 63p a month. Thus there’ll be barely any growth from consumption, far more likely to be the exact opposite. And who they give the dish to is 100% central to determining whether there is growth.

Where the cap is compared to where it was is already factored in to forecasts. As I said above, if the average household spending was forecast to be, say, 30% on energy then that spending will now be offset by the government paying roughly half of it. If only some of the money that would have been spent on energy is now spent on other stuff it produces higher growth than forecast.

So, yes bollocks: but spouted by you.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Its hard to find anyone other than you that is predicting growth. Are you really claiming we are going to avoid recession?

Consumer spending already fell more than expected in August.

People were already squeezed by earlier energy price rises, and the Truss stuff doesnt reverse those.

The effect of interest rate rises need to be considered.

Sterling versus the dollar tells its own story.

There are increasing concerns that there will be a global recession. Bad news for most countries, and for a whole bunch of reasons the UK is more exposed than others to various negative forces these days.

The sterling fall to the lowest rate for 30 odd years is the risk to growth: if the market does not buy the Truss plan and the cost of borrowing goes up then, yes, all bets are off. You are also right that the neo-liberal chicken is coming home to roost in the UK as the chart below indicates. But, the fact remains that Truss is offsetting money that households would have been forecast to have to find. More money in the system - despite the issues you identify - almost (in the short term) produces growth and the sums here are staggering.

 

[belboid]

Where the cap is compared to where it was is already factored in to forecasts. As I said above, if the average household spending was forecast to be, say, 30% on energy then that spending will now be offset by the government paying roughly half of it. If only some of the money that would have been spent on energy is now spent on other stuff it produces higher growth than forecast.

So, yes bollocks: but spouted by you.

No, that amounts to a smaller recession, not growth. Any economic boost from lowered taxes might kick in in eighteen months, ie just in time for the next election. You have it completely arse about face.

 

[brogdale]

The only growth that tax cuts & corporate welfare for the rich will create is more asset price inflation. The huge cut to the personal disposable income of the majority caused by hiked energy costs & real-terms wage cuts will almost certainly lead to recession. Add in the impacts of rising interest rates and bond yields and the falling pound and we're really up shit creek. Truss's blind, ignorant faith makes blustercunt's boosterism look like pessimism by comparison.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

No, that amounts to a smaller recession, not growth. Any economic boost from lowered taxes might kick in in eighteen months, ie just in time for the next election. You have it completely arse about face.

Time will tell Belboid. But, I expect weak, anaemic growth which will be heralded by the press as evidence that Truss-enomics are working and that the Tories need 5 more years to fully deliver the recovery etc.

The cost will be the highest amount of borrowing since 1940s and the other indicators of real growth - exports/imports balance, investment, increased economic activity in the real economy - will remain dead.

 

[belboid]

Time will tell Belboid. But, I expect weak, anaemic growth which will be heralded by the press as evidence that Truss-enomics are working and that the Tories need 5 more years to fully deliver the recovery etc.

The cost will be the highest amount of borrowing since 1940s and the other indicators of real growth - exports/imports balance, investment, increased economic activity in the real economy - will remain dead.

Well that’s quite the climb down from your original claim and the second para pretty much contradicts the first. But hey ho, let’s see

 

[brogdale]

#CostOfLizingCrisis

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Well that’s quite the climb down from your original claim and the second para pretty much contradicts the first. But hey ho, let’s see

No it’s not. It’s exactly the same as what I said: record levels of borrowing will almost inevitably produce short term growth. The longer term consequences of doing so are dire.

 

[belboid]

Dude, your posts still up there for everyone to read.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Dude, your posts still up there for everyone to read.

It is. Dude.

 

[brogdale]

For me it was this bit that seemed way off beam:

The tory/Truss plan is betting the UK Economy on this lever. It will though, in the short term, work (and remember Truss and Kwarteng are not thinking further ahead than 18 months). If the Tory plan is to borrow (and then 'spend') around £200-£250Bn then growth is almost inevitable as more money starts to circulate around the system. In fact, it would take a herculean effort for an economy not to grow with so much money pumped in to it.

The tax cuts and corporate welfare for the rich will never enter the system, let alone circulate. The unearned incomes that result will be squirrelled away in our country's tax havens.