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Liz Truss’s time is up

Even when advocating changes in economic policy direction, or even something that would be considered vaguely radical, very few stretching back decades have been stupid enough to attempt to do so without having their plans costed in some at least semi-credible way. So I'm far from convinced that what happened to Trussonomics actually offers any new lessons in that respect. The other lesson is that trickle down is dead, but as I pointed back in the wake of the financial crisis years ago, the one ideological concession that the mainstream were prepared to declare at the time was that trickle down was dead, so that wasnt something we needed a new lesson about either.

Well, Labour had supported many of the mini-budget measures, but Rachel Reeves was doing the media round yesterday emphasising that "things have changed" and they've now fallen in line with Hunt. Her main point seemed to be that Hunt was doing the right things he just wasn't the right person to be doing them.
 
The backbenchers would love to pick Sunak. But picking the man who lost to a brain damaged hedgehog would look crap, especially to their members who resoundingly rejected him.

According to the poll of tory members out today, if that contest was run again now, Sunak would win with 55% to Truss 45%.
 
According to the poll of tory members out today, if that contest was run again now, Sunak would win with 55% to Truss 45%.
Yeah but he’d be running against someone known to be fucking useless now. And that 45% is higher than the proportion of members who want her to stay on. So at least 7% really fucking hate Sunak, even more than they love power.
 
The backbenchers would love to pick Sunak. But picking the man who lost to a brain damaged hedgehog would look crap, especially to their members who resoundingly rejected him.
Sunak comes with a lot of baggage and is he really that good a politician? I'm not so sure. Mordaunt looks the smart choice to me. She's the one I'd least like them to choose.
 
It's only 18 months now. And yeh - it's gonna be a Sunak/Morduant ticket, surely. They can't shoot themselves in the foot as spectacularly again and vote in another halfwit. And unfortunately I think that ticket would win against Starmer. It's the perfect amount of time to prove they're 'competent' as well. Markets will settle. Interest rates will settle. I'm fairly sure the deal's already been done.

Public services will be cut. But hey, who cares right!
Nah, they've a bit longer. Last election was Dec 2019 and for some reason I can't remember, they have a wee bit longer than that, maybe Jan 2025

Edit: should have read the page - already said.
 
Well, Labour had supported many of the mini-budget measures, but Rachel Reeves was doing the media round yesterday emphasising that "things have changed" and they've now fallen in line with Hunt. Her main point seemed to be that Hunt was doing the right things he just wasn't the right person to be doing them.
The present version of Labour is not where I would look for anything diverging from whatever the commonly accepted dull mainstream economic wisdom of the moment is.

To judge whether the Trussonomic meltdown has long term implications for what economic policies a political party would feel confident to suggest, I'd need a better test than the Starmerites will offer. McDonnell type stuff would have been a more interesting test, and I suspect even that would have needed to be adjusted to cope with the current economic realities in order for the numbers to add up.
 
i don't think anyone will slaughter shammer if energy bills next year are £4k+ and who knows what they might be the year after.

how long till people who own wood burners start chopping down trees in parks etc for the fuel?
Yeah, I agree on the outcome of the election, it's just she'd beat him at the despatch box/election debates. But as you say, material conditions - people fucking freezing and starving - should make the next election unwinnable for the vermin.
 
Nah, they've a bit longer. Last election was Dec 2019 and for some reason I can't remember, they have a wee bit longer than that, maybe Jan 2025

Edit: should have read the page - already said.
Its because its 5 years from day that parliments first meets after the election not 5 years since last election.
 
Maybe they will be content to leave Truss in place to absorb the damage this winter will bring and then replace her in the spring. But thats the same dull vision that I was going on about before her prospects worsened over the last week, and every day could change my opinion on that yet again.
 
If this country wasn’t already a laughing stock, I mean if it hadn’t been publically humiliating itself for the last few years with this sequence of joke PMs and so on, I wonder if the international money people would have run away after the mini budget in that same way.
 
The backbenchers would love to pick Sunak. But picking the man who lost to a brain damaged hedgehog would look crap, especially to their members who resoundingly rejected him.

Collectively they would go for Sunak if there was a vote, but there will be a significant number who would prefer someone like Braverman and a number who don't care as long as the new leader saves their red wall seat which none of the last contenders would have done. I think they need a (limited to mps) democratic process to put a new leader in place otherwise it's open warfare. It's not just a matter of plotting to put someone new in place, it's a matter of politicking. We shouldn't forget that a significant minority of Tory MP's endorsed Truss and her programme of borrowing for tax cuts that led to disaster, and some will be fuming because she caved in.
 
Maybe they will be content to leave Truss in place to absorb the damage this winter will bring and then replace her in the spring. But thats the same dull vision that I was going on about before her prospects worsened over the last week, and every day could change my opinion on that yet again.
The problem with that scenario is 'markets', markets don't like uncertainty etc. The markets want it to be over and they want the likes of Cunt and/or sunak and/or mordor. Unfortunately markets also want a lot of stuff that brings down further horrors on working class people.
 
Her main point seemed to be that Hunt was doing the right things he just wasn't the right person to be doing them.

That's all Labour have to offer on any level. 'Well yes, obviously we wouldn't do anything differently really, don't want to upset the markets or the media! But at least it wouldn't be the horrible Tories doing it.'

I agree with those saying they almost certainly can't rescue the next election now. But with Mordaunt in charge and people like Hunt and Sunak at the forefront for a couple of years I think they could make it a whole lot more unsettling that Labour seem to be relying entirely on the 'But Tories are bad' narrative. It'd be OK if that pushed Labour to improve what they're offering, but, well, you know ...
 
Just to pick up specifically on the EiE stuff:
Sneering at people because they can't get involved in activism isn't a good look. I don't live anywhere near EiE meetings. I don't have the means to travel the country attending protests and the like. IF you have reasonable suggestions I'll hear them otherwise you can keep your judgements to yourself
I mean, it feels like EiE is sort of functioning as the political arm of the RMT and CWU at the moment, and you may not have any EiE stuff happening anywhere near you, but I'm sure you will have a local post office with a picket line this week. That feels like a very useful thing to be doing at the moment.
EiE is still holding launch meetings. To write it off after a couple of months looks rather like an attempt to d eerily dismiss something as an excuse not to get involved.
Tbf, I think the fact that after a couple of months they still don't seem to be doing much other than holding launch meetings is a valid criticism, at this rate there's going to be an entire Prime Minister whose term in office started and finished while EiE were still getting launched.

On the big picture stuff, anyone who's confidently making predictions about what they reckon will happen in a hypothetical 2024/2025 general election is obviously daft. I reckon there's going to be a load more mental unpredictable stuff that happens between now and the end of 2023 that will leave us in a situation that no-one was fully expecting, surely that's the only thing anyone can predict with any confidence?
 
They don’t even have the survival of the party as part of their drive. It literally comes down to the determination to not have the brown one, doesn’t it? That’s overrides everything.
For a significant minority, I'm sure that's the case yes. Although if a black person is also swivel-eyed, like Badenoch, that must cause cognitive dissonance.
 
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