Leave-supporting Llanelli left reeling as manufacturing industry moves out due to Brexit

[alex_]

Most utterly banal tautologies are pretty clear yes. They don't say very much though

None of this shit is rocket science.

 

[Wolveryeti]

What we appear to have here is a series of clowns arguing that capitalism is shit in defence of capitalism and for a specific configuration of it that encourages an outcome they pretend that they're decrying.

Says the no-mark Bristol bookshop wanker arguing Leave will lead to higher wages and better working conditions because of nasty EU neolibs (despite a huge body of empirical evidence suggesting that harder borders and more distant trading partners = less trade, kinda fucking over everyone working in an exporting sector or who relies on imports).

 

[Wolveryeti]

And without the constraints of european law they will be able to drive down conditions for workers to save money.

Dont forget the shitter environmental and product safety standards too. Chlorinated chicken ftw

 

[likesfish]

but we might get Glocks in Asda or rather hi-points.
which is not a good thing trumps mates are mad enough to think thats a good idea and are team are stupid enough to fall for it

Walmart Removes ’Like A Hero’ Signage From Atop Gun Case In One Store nobody needs this

 

[redsquirrel]

There is already hardship around in many leave voting areas of Wales, the Midlands, the north and dying coastal towns. It’s kind of why they voted leave in the first place.

But Smokeandsteam those people don't exist, don't you know

We were getting on pretty well.

.

Stick with what worked before.

 

[Wolveryeti]

UK Automotive Employment 1971 - 502,000
UK Automotive Employment 2018- 162,000

This doesnt carry much weight unless you can tell a convincing story about the jobs leavers went onto being worse in terms of working conditions.

 

[redsquirrel]

Last week on here has been re-confirmed to me exactly why I was right to vote leave and will do if there is a second referendum (which I doubt).

Supposed progressives posting and praising any nonsense (from New Labour pricks like Bragg) so long as it's Remain, leave voters (if they exist) dismissed as dupes, idiots and/or racists, technocracy and economics made into positives, the EU (currently killing people in Greece etc) elevated as the defender of workers. I've not seen a single argument for stopping Brexit made from a socialist basis.

 

[Wolveryeti]

I'm not suggesting that the jobs are not relatively well paid. I am making the point that a) the UK automotive sector has undergone massive decline, around 300,000 jobs, since we joined the EU. More, if you count the wider nexus of jobs of that used to provide parts. This amounted to over 100,000 lost jobs in the West Midlands alone and that b) whether we leave or stay this decline will continue as the industry seeks to lower wages, increase production elsewhere and maximise profit.

For example JLR, which is part of my union Branch, has constantly sought to blame Brexit for lay offs, partial shut downs and for possible closures. There is one problem with this - it's bullshit. JLR is seeking to divert attention from two fundamental facts a) it's built too many cars of the wrong model, despite repeated warnings from the shopfloor that it needed to diversify production and b) its medium and long term capital investment plan is to maximise new plant and manufacture outside of what it terms 'high wage' (meaning unionised) locations. This strategy will continue regardless of whether the UK is in/out.

When JLR whinges about Brexit it means that it wants the UK to remain so that it can freely and quickly import more and more product using its 'just in time' supply chain model, particularly manufactured goods from elsewhere. Assembly jobs will still exist but will taper off as production techniques develop and more can be imported already assembled.

The idea that EU membership 'protects jobs' is laughable. In fact, it's arguable that disruption the model under a 'hard Brexit' would slow down their strategy and retain jobs.

You think if the UK never joined the world would still be happily buying crappy British Leyland bangers keeping those 000,000s of workers in work? Deluded.

Look at Japanese investment and job creation in the UK (e.g. Nissan). A huge factor was access to the Single Market. UK car manufacture is now just part of a network of supply chains deeply embedded in the SM. Even just the crankshaft of a Mini crosses tbe channel 3 times before installation. Its bonkers to think that manufacturers will retain the bit of their process that will be the bottleneck in the face of purely continental operators undercutting them by avoiding all the grief at the borders...

 

[Wolveryeti]

I've not seen a single argument for stopping Brexit made from a socialist basis.

The socialist utopia Brexit will usher in will be great - I can't wait. Much jobs, endless wage rises etc

 

[mauvais]

You haven't got a clue have you?

I'm not suggesting that the jobs are not relatively well paid. I am making the point that a) the UK automotive sector has undergone massive decline, around 300,000 jobs, since we joined the EU. More, if you count the wider nexus of jobs of that used to provide parts. This amounted to over 100,000 lost jobs in the West Midlands alone and that b) whether we leave or stay this decline will continue as the industry seeks to lower wages, increase production elsewhere and maximise profit.

Firstly, the quality of automotive work isn't about pay in itself. For example: skills, sustainability, purpose, accessibility to entrants without classic higher education, and a greater if still deeply flawed degree of permanence. That's why skilled manufacturing is important, and why the picture you paint of terminal linear decline since the 1970s is a pretty shitty way to try and portray where we are today. And I'm not here to defend the EU on this subject - the tariff-free trade that I claim to be a major part in retaining the industry in the UK is hardly a charitable endeavour, is it - but 'since we joined the EU' presented as cause or catalyst is bollocks. Look at the fucking state of the British car industry by the early 1970s and show me how it was European membership wot did it.

And once again, it's not about global trends - it's fucking obvious that automation has reduced industry jobs not just here but anywhere - but about whether recent political decision making has an additional impact, positive or negative, on top of that.

For example JLR, which is part of my union Branch, has constantly sought to blame Brexit for lay offs, partial shut downs and for possible closures. There is one problem with this - it's bullshit. JLR is seeking to divert attention from two fundamental facts a) it's built too many cars of the wrong model, despite repeated warnings from the shopfloor that it needed to diversify production and b) its medium and long term capital investment plan is to maximise new plant and manufacture outside of what it terms 'high wage' (meaning unionised) locations. This strategy will continue regardless of whether the UK is in/out.

JLR have fucked it up of late no doubt, but they're not alone in this, and ultimately the fundamentals are such that it will continue on making money, making cars and employing people wherever that is.

When JLR whinges about Brexit it means that it wants the UK to remain so that it can freely and quickly import more and more product using its 'just in time' supply chain model

No shit, detective. It's almost like that's how the car industry works.

The idea that EU membership 'protects jobs' is laughable. In fact, it's arguable that disruption the model under a 'hard Brexit' would slow down their strategy and retain jobs.

Heh. How exactly? The crash of the pound?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

You think if the UK never joined the world would still be happily buying crappy British Leyland bangers keeping those 000,000s of workers in work? Deluded.

Look at Japanese investment and job creation in the UK (e.g. Nissan). A huge factor was access to the Single Market. UK car manufacture is now just part of a network of supply chains deeply embedded in the SM. Even just the crankshaft of a Mini crosses tbe channel 3 times before installation. Its bonkers to think that manufacturers will retain the bit of their process that will be the bottleneck in the face of purely continental operators undercutting them by avoiding all the grief at the borders...

But that’s not the argument I was making. About either British manufacturing or how global supply chain network work and how the EU economic process interacts with both.

Read it again - and think more

 

[alcopop]

You cretin

Actions need to have consequences, otherwise no one learns.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Actions need to have consequences, otherwise no one learns.

Could you illustrate the lesson in full for me please. I have a desire to learn.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Actions need to have consequences, otherwise no one learns.

Are you an official of the IMF or ECB? Or just a cunt?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Look at Japanese investment and job creation in the UK (e.g. Nissan). A huge factor was access to the Single Market.

And yet Nissan’s Sunderland car plant predates the Single Market by nine years. Weird, huh.

 

[Supine]

I've worked on three projects where locating a new production line or relocating one was part of the project scope. The location was decided based on the following criteria which were scored to make the final decision :

1. Cost
2. Quality
3. Language
4. Skilled Workforce Availability
5. Stability (political / economic)

Brexit impacts 1 & 5 directly and 4 potentially. Brexiteers talk about reducing #2 as an advantage but would be a negative to pharma / automotive / space / nuclear etc.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

And yet Nissan’s Sunderland car plant predates the Single Market by nine years. Weird, huh.

Nothing predates FACTS

 

[ddraig]

yeah - Llanelli is a pretty grim place. spent a few days there moving my brother out of the shittist, slummiest, private rented accomodation i have ever seen.

sympathies! I was brought up there

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Are you an official of the IMF or ECB? Or just a cunt?

Yeah it’s like those guys that get hard off the no nonsense attitude of Guy Verhofstadt. Mate, Guy isn’t gonna standing at the pearly gates with open arms cause you stood behind him giving it “yeeeeeeeah!” when he bullied everyone else in the school.

 

[pseudonarcissus]

And yet Nissan’s Sunderland car plant predates the Single Market by nine years. Weird, huh.

It was still built to get around EEC quotas.

With Brexit there will be a transition. Manufacturing industry that is integrated into European supply chains will probably close. Just get used to the idea. The change can be managed by an agreement, or it can be unmanaged via no agreement.
One could argue that a lot of Thatcher’s “reforms” were necessary and/or inevitable, but they were not managed and we pissed away the North Sea oil revenues on unemployment benefit. And destroyed communities with it.

As soon as we know where diesel car regulation is going Dagenham will close. I’m quite sure Ford just are waiting to size an Eastern European Diesel engine factory. No point keeping Bridgend (?) after that, complicating European content rules. The Japanese will leave over a longer timescale. The automotive tech hub around Warwick University will start to collapse, so the F1 teams and Aston Martin will leave. There is no such thing as intrinsic Bristishness. 30% of Minis are already made in the Netherlands. The “investment” in the eMini line in Oxford is interesting; there are far fewer components in an electric car. And tax breaks and exemptions. Just fewer workers needed.

Filton? You really think Airbus will manufacture in the UK in 10 years? Really?

Financial and legal services will probably survive at about 80% of current levels. All financial firms will need a European base. Bosses tend to be able to have workers move to them.

It will be a while before you write a contract in Italian law, but arbitration under London Rules in other centres is growing.

At least, when you’ve finished the housework with your Singaporean Dyson vacuum you can retire to a weatherspoons pub.

I’m imagining the new blue passports will have the pages at the back to record currency being taken out.

 

[Wolveryeti]

And yet Nissan’s Sunderland car plant predates the Single Market by nine years. Weird, huh.

We joined the customs union in 1973. Nissan's Sunderland plant was 1984, and has been heavily investing ever since and sells about half its output into the EU. So yeah - my point stands.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

We joined the customs union in 1973. Nissan's Sunderland plant was 1984, and has been heavily investing ever since and sells about half its output into the EU. So yeah - my point stands.

Nope.

What your wiggle does show though is a woeful ignorance of the difference between the customs union and single market.

 

[mauvais]

I'm not sure what your point is. In respect of trade, the best place to be before the existence of the single market was in the customs union.

But more to the point, there's loads of bits of history you can point to - some factory being present in whatever year under whatever conditions - that doesn’t tell you very much. For instance it's not like Sunderland has had a frictionless history; it's had to be bailed out or effectively bribed to stay a number of times, like during the Euro debt crisis, and its continued presence is subject to regular review. Question is whether Brexit makes the decision to stay more or less favourable.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm not sure what your point is.

That Wolveryeti’s post that Nissan came to the UK cos of the Single Market was bullshit and that when called up on it their wiggle to try and conflate it with the customs union demonstrates their lack of understanding of both entities.

Hth etc.

 

[Wolveryeti]

Nope.

What your wiggle does show though is a woeful ignorance of the difference between the customs union and single market.

You utter weapon

 

[Smangus]

The test will come when new models are to start production and whether they tool up Sunderland to make them or somewhere else.

 

[yield]

One could argue that a lot of Thatcher’s “reforms” were necessary and/or inevitable, but they were not managed and we pissed away the North Sea oil revenues on unemployment benefit. And destroyed communities with it.

Were they necessary "reforms"? Inevitable as in There Is No Alternative? The privatisation of public services, energy, water, railways, telecommunications, mail, housing? Perversely with many of the public goods now owned by foreign state owned companies.

It was an absolute disaster for everywhere apart from London and the South East. One of the other "reforms" Financial deregulation by the Tories and continued by Labour caused the crisis of 2007–2008.

North Sea oil revenues financed massive tax cuts too. Tony Benn and otheres wanted to set up a wealth fund to invest North Sea oil and gas income. It was opposed by the Tories.

Financial and legal services will probably survive at about 80% of current levels. All financial firms will need a European base. Bosses tend to be able to have workers move to them.

It will be a while before you write a contract in Italian law, but arbitration under London Rules in other centres is growing.

Economy is overweighted to Financial Services and London. The City of Londons role in tax havens and money laundering needs to recognised.

At least, when you’ve finished the housework with your Singaporean Dyson vacuum you can retire to a weatherspoons pub.

I’m imagining the new blue passports will have the pages at the back to record currency being taken out.

Didn't you move to South America? Anyway I voted leave but doubt that Brexit will ever happen.

 

[yield]

You think if the UK never joined the world would still be happily buying crappy British Leyland bangers keeping those 000,000s of workers in work? Deluded.

LRB · Neal Ascherson · As the toffs began to retreat: Declinism
22/11/18

He quotes Tony Benn, looking back on the turmoil at BL’s Longbridge plant: ‘And then you bring in managers from a business studies course who’d got a degree in business management but who couldn’t mend a puncture in a motor tyre – and you speak about the people who made the cars as the problem?’

Look at Japanese investment and job creation in the UK (e.g. Nissan). A huge factor was access to the Single Market. UK car manufacture is now just part of a network of supply chains deeply embedded in the SM. Even just the crankshaft of a Mini crosses tbe channel 3 times before installation. Its bonkers to think that manufacturers will retain the bit of their process that will be the bottleneck in the face of purely continental operators undercutting them by avoiding all the grief at the borders...

Is "the crankshaft of a Mini crosses the channel 3 times before installation" a good thing? Is it progress?

There is a fine Scots word for the sale of the contents of a house, farm or factory: a ‘displenishment’. We have certainly witnessed the displenishment of Great Britain. Hamilton-Paterson’s grief, his sense of injury and loss, is eloquent.

But, speaking for myself, I can’t share that ‘brand’ nostalgia. I would trade a hundred Hillman Imps or a dozen Bristol Britannias (‘The Whispering Giant’) for one Man from the Ministry, standing outside an ‘advance factory’ waving an Industrial Development Certificate. He didn’t stand around in a wasteland of nail-bars and food banks, squeaking that ‘Britain is open for business!’

He planned the business, planted it where it was needed and gave it a launching push with public money. He and the men and women he worked for – Hugh Dalton, Jennie Lee, Tom Johnston, Aneurin Bevan – would know how to stop the metaphorical train’s backward slide and set it climbing again. But to what strange landscapes? For that disciplined, centralised ‘new British nation’ they created will never be found again.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Blaaaah

 

[pseudonarcissus]

Didn't you move to South America? Anyway I voted leave but doubt that Brexit will ever happen.

Yes, I escaped Brexit to get Bolsonaro
I see Ellesmere Port has started winding down

Vauxhall workers stage mass walkout