Labour: Can they ever win another General Election?

[kebabking]

#FBPE ultras getting all confused by Sir Keith's sudden transformation from loud, militant 2nd Reffer in 2018/19 (helping lead to almost inevitable loss of 50 + Northern Leave seats @ GE2019 ) to Brexit backer in 2020.... the hustle is something to behold, even in these hyper cynical times

Only if you don't hold to the idea that politics is - sometimes/often - the art of the possible. Starmer is an ardent remainer (and one could easily argue that his, along with many others in Labour, ardent remainerdom was a very significant player in the catastrophic loss of the 2019 GE), but voting for whatever Brexit deal is presented is no great moral/philosophical about turn, it's merely about choosing the lessor of two evils.

One might have hoped that the 2017 GE would have punched 'politics is the art of the possible you stupid, #FBPE twat' firmly in his (and others) face, and he could have learned from that, but apparently it took the 2019 GE as well.

 

[cantsin]

Starmer wasn't a 'loud, militant 2nd reffer', his position was much more careful than that. In public at least.

cld lose ' militant' possibly, but not sure where this ' careful' claim comes from ?

Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for EU referendum as only way forward

Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer has insisted a second Brexit referendum is needed to break the political deadlock.

inews.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

cld lose ' militant' possibly, but not sure where this ' careful' claim comes from ?

Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for EU referendum as only way forward

Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer has insisted a second Brexit referendum is needed to break the political deadlock.

inews.co.uk

failure to recollect

 

[killer b]

cld lose ' militant' possibly, but not sure where this ' careful' claim comes from ?

Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for EU referendum as only way forward

Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer has insisted a second Brexit referendum is needed to break the political deadlock.

inews.co.uk

this was a position the entire shadow cabinet was pushing by October last year though.

 

[cantsin]

this was a position the entire shadow cabinet was pushing by October last year though.

yep, and was a ( slightly typical ) f*ck up by Corbyn .... and John McDonnel's nadir ( the rest of them, whatever)

 

[Pickman's model]

Only if you don't hold to the idea that politics is - sometimes/often - the art of the possible. Starmer is an ardent remainer (and one could easily argue that his, along with many others in Labour, ardent remainerdom was a very significant player in the catastrophic loss of the 2019 GE), but voting for whatever Brexit deal is presented is no great moral/philosophical about turn, it's merely about choosing the lessor of two evils.

One might have hoped that the 2017 GE would have punched 'politics is the art of the possible you stupid, #FBPE twat' firmly in his (and others) face, and he could have learned from that, but apparently it took the 2019 GE as well.

you can argue it's the lesser of two evils, but there's no need to support something that's marginally less shit than something utterly shit, not when the government has a spanking 80 seat majority. voting for it is a choice. tbh starmer supports it, he loses a ton of support from the 50% of the country who opposed brexit in 2016. he'd be better off having some principles for a change rather than chasing votes. the labour party have played the brexit thing really fucking badly ever since 23/6/16

 

[Pickman's model]

this was a position the entire shadow cabinet was pushing by October last year though.

except it wasn't

The suggestion could cause friction with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has said a general election is needed to break the stalemate.

 

[killer b]

I've no love for Labour's 2019 change of direction on Brexit (though I do understand why they felt forced down that route) and I've no love for Kier Starmer either - I was just saying you'd got his position wrong. Plenty to criticise there without making up opinions for him.

 

[19sixtysix]

Labour will not get my passport back and living in Scotland I have other choices. I wanted corbyn to succeed but the right wing of the party would rather swim in tory shit than get a democratic socialist government. Strarmer seems happier attacking his own side more than the tories. Labour in scotland is fixed on attacking the snp (not the tories) and thus attacks all the former voters that left to the snp because new labour had forgotten what the labour party was for. I'll probably vote green at the hollyrood election.

 

[brogdale]

you can argue it's the lesser of two evils, but there's no need to support something that's marginally less shit than something utterly shit, not when the government has a spanking 80 seat majority. voting for it is a choice. tbh starmer supports it, he loses a ton of support from the 50% of the country who opposed brexit in 2016. he'd be better off having some principles for a change rather than chasing votes. the labour party have played the brexit thing really fucking badly ever since 23/6/16

There's something forensically incompetent in alienating one subset of the base with a decision directed at another subset likely to return to fold anyway, once the deed is done.

 

[kebabking]

you can argue it's the lesser of two evils, but there's no need to support something that's marginally less shit than something utterly shit, not when the government has a spanking 80 seat majority. voting for it is a choice. tbh starmer supports it, he loses a ton of support from the 50% of the country who opposed brexit in 2016. he'd be better off having some principles for a change rather than chasing votes. the labour party have played the brexit thing really fucking badly ever since 23/6/16

Nah, not convinced by that - there are some right loons who will never vote for anyone who, however reluctantly, put their hands in the toilet of Brexit, but I rather take the view that they will only vote LibDem/SNP/Green anyway. Four years down the road I doubt anyone who would otherwise vote labour will decide to stay at home because of this.

I also think there's a long game here - everyone knows Johnson is unpopular in the PCP with lots of quiet muttering about when to get rid: by supporting (ish) the government he's encouraging Tory MP's to rebel - Covid, Brexit etc.. - and making Johnson dependant on Labour to get anything through. This is catastrophic for party moral and makes Johnson with an 80 seat majority look like a lame duck.

I'm not saying Starmer is the best thing since sliced bread or that he's on track for 400 seats in 2024, but out here inToryland he's helping Johnson look like a useless arse while looking ok himself, and by ridding the LP of Corbyn and his Ilk he's making it acceptable to vote labour.

The #FBPE crowd may hate him, but they hate everyone.

 

[Pickman's model]

Nah, not convinced by that - there are some right loons who will never vote for anyone who, however reluctantly, put their hands in the toilet of Brexit, but I rather take the view that they will only vote LibDem/SNP/Green anyway. Four years down the road I doubt anyone who would otherwise vote labour will decide to stay at home because of this.

I also think there's a long game here - everyone knows Johnson is unpopular in the PCP with lots of quiet muttering about when to get rid: by supporting (ish) the government he's encouraging Tory MP's to rebel - Covid, Brexit etc.. - and making Johnson dependant on Labour to get anything through. This is catastrophic for party moral and makes Johnson with an 80 seat majority look like a lame duck.

I'm not saying Starmer is the best thing since sliced bread or that he's on track for 400 seats in 2024, but out here inToryland he's helping Johnson look like a useless arse while looking ok himself, and by ridding the LP of Corbyn and his Ilk he's making it acceptable to vote labour.

The #FBPE crowd may hate him, but they hate everyone.

i think you're making a number of mistakes in this post. for a start i think you're wrong that people put off by this will vote for the golden shower etc - i think quite possibly they won't vote in future. i don't think sks is playing a long game wr2 johnson. if he is he's not, to me anyway, doing very well. because if he's really playing a long game he should be rubbishing johnson's possible successors as much as johnson. undermining them as sunak is being undermined by the guardian atm. the problem with your long game is that while he may be encouraging tory rebels he is also ensuring the passing of tory laws and i wonder how good that is for labour morale - although it certainly doesn't seem to have affected yours. rather than be complicit in passing shit laws for some ephemeral pr win over johnson, it'd be nice (as i say) if he showed he had principles. as for getting rid of jc and his ilk making it acceptable to vote labour, 10.3m people had no trouble voting labour last year which while lower than 2017 was more than miliband managed in 2015, brown in 2010 and blair in 2005.

 

[chilango]

Any long game Labour play regarding de Pfeiffel should be about keeping him as Tory leader

...but tbh the Labour Party can't even play the short game regarding its own leaders so I doubt they're capable of anything so strategic anyway.

 

[killer b]

Any long game Labour play regarding de Pfeiffel should be about keeping him as Tory leader

I believe he was the Labour Party's preferred candidate in the 2019 Tory leadership election, as Trump was the Dems preferred candidate in the Republican 2016 primaries. That kind of 'long game' playing often goes awry, I probably wouldn't bother with it it I were them.

 

[chilango]

I believe he was the Labour Party's preferred candidate in the 2019 Tory leadership election, as Trump was the Dems preferred candidate in the Republican 2016 primaries. That kind of 'long game' playing often goes awry, I probably wouldn't bother with it it I were them.

Quite.

 

[Sasaferrato]

My feeling is that Corbyn frightened the horses. As to Labour winning again, no reason why Johnson might have irritated enough after 1 or 2 terms and Starmer might look competent by comparison.

Starmer loses the next one, someone else will be losing the one after.

 

[Sasaferrato]

you can argue it's the lesser of two evils, but there's no need to support something that's marginally less shit than something utterly shit, not when the government has a spanking 80 seat majority. voting for it is a choice. tbh starmer supports it, he loses a ton of support from the 50% of the country who opposed brexit in 2016. he'd be better off having some principles for a change rather than chasing votes. the labour party have played the brexit thing really fucking badly ever since 23/6/16

Principles and Starmer are strange bedfellows. I cannot think of a single thing that Starmer has spoken strongly about.

 

[chilango]

Principles and Starmer are strange bedfellows. I cannot think of a single thing that Starmer has spoken strongly about.

Corbyn?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Corbyn?

Do you mean he has spoken strongly about Corbyn, or that Corbyn didn't speak out strongly about anything much either?

 

[chilango]

Do you mean he has spoken strongly about Corbyn, or that Corbyn didn't speak out strongly about anything much either?

The former.

 

[sleaterkinney]

cld lose ' militant' possibly

Let’s hope so.

 

[redcogs]

im 69, so its probably my age, but i doubt that i'll see another Labour government.. im not nostalgic about it, because the ones i have noticed were actually not that cracking, strenuously imposing wage freezes, or forcing trade unions into 'social contracts' (that benefited the wealthy), or promoting illegal wars and mass murder in the middle east. Its a long list of betrayals as far as this socialist is concerned. As another Scotland resident i face no dilemma on how to vote next May. Labour and Tory are impossible to support. i want independence to be a kick in the teeth for Boris and his loathsome bunch, and will cast accordingly.

 

[rummo]

im 69, so its probably my age, but i doubt that i'll see another Labour government.. im not nostalgic about it, because the ones i have noticed were actually not that cracking, strenuously imposing wage freezes, or forcing trade unions into 'social contracts' (that benefited the wealthy), or promoting illegal wars and mass murder in the middle east. Its a long list of betrayals as far as this socialist is concerned. As another Scotland resident i face no dilemma on how to vote next May. Labour and Tory are impossible to support. i want independence to be a kick in the teeth for Boris and his loathsome bunch, and will cast accordingly.

If you don't mind me saying so, that's not much of a reason to vote for independence. Sort of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[killer b]

more like cutting a diseased limb off to prevent the gangrene spreading to the rest of the body

 

[rummo]

more like cutting a diseased limb off to prevent the gangrene spreading to the rest of the body

Nothing like that at all.

The SNP have now conceded that independence will entail a decade of austerity. That was before Covid hit, and that is what they were admitting to, so God knows what it would actually be like if it ever happens.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Nothing like that at all.

The SNP have now conceded that independence will entail a decade of austerity. That was before Covid hit, and that is what they were admitting to, so God knows what it would actually be like if it ever happens.

It would be utterly horrendous.

They ignore the GERS report every year, the one that shows public spending per capita much higher than England. No word from Sturgeon as to where that is coming from.

 

[redsquirrel]

Keir Starmer is being urged to lay the groundwork for cooperating with the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next general election, by MPs and campaigners who argue the party will struggle to win a majority alone.
......
“The electoral facts point to one conclusion: Labour will struggle to win alone. So the party can choose to lose alone and remain in opposition, or build cross-party alliances, lead a new government and transform the democratic landscape,” the report says.

Mad shit from Compass

Compass is setting up groups of activists in Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, who will work to establish cross-party links and cooperate on shared policy priorities.

But this is where anti-toryism leads

 

[03gills]

I think the chances of Labour winning the next election in 2024 are slim to none. Corbynism was clearly not a vote winner

We're really just going to pretend 2017 never happened then? Cool cool.

Until critics of Corbyn work out why he managed a 10% swing to Labour after just two years as leader (he more or less reversed 20 years of vote decline in one fell swoop) & why they lost that gain in 2019 then I can't take you seriously.

I get the impression that 2017 was so against some individuals personal narrative that they've just pretended it never happened as opposed to actually dealing with it. It certainly feels like it when you see those leaked staffer emails from 2017, where there was genuine despair that Labour had actually done well.

 

[MickiQ]

We're really just going to pretend 2017 never happened then? Cool cool.

Until critics of Corbyn work out why he managed a 10% swing to Labour after just two years as leader (he more or less reversed 20 years of vote decline in one fell swoop) & why they lost that gain in 2019 then I can't take you seriously.

I get the impression that 2017 was so against some individuals personal narrative that they've just pretended it never happened as opposed to actually dealing with it. It certainly feels like it when you see those leaked staffer emails from 2017, where there was genuine despair that Labour had actually done well.

First and foremost there seems to be a belief that 2017 was some kind of triumph for the Labour Party, it wasn't they lost, they just didn't get the kicking that everyone expected them to.
As for the surge in the Labour vote in 2017 and it's equally spectacular drop in 2019, the answer is one word Brexit. Labour and especially Corbyn indulged in Olympic standard fence sitting for as long as they possibly could and for a hell of a lot longer than they should have done. I would suggest that a lot of those 2 or 3 million extra voters were Remainers who thought that Labour was the answer to their prayers rather than converts to Corbynism.
It's signficant that come 2019 when it was clear that Labour were not going to deliver for the "EU at Any Cost" crowd, the LibDem vote went up by about 1.5m so it's obvious where a lot of them went (and the Green vote went up 300K)
TBF Corbyn was caught in the middle of a perfect storm, he needed the votes of 2 diametrically opposed groups and was clearly never going to make them all happy but the point is those extra votes in 2017 weren't Corbyn voters they were Remain(ish) voters holding their noses.
Which brings us to 2019, the Labour Party ran on the most progressive and radical platform since the 1980's and the Tories ran on a three word slogan and Boris's matey-boy personality. Labour were annihilated, even worse large numbers of voters in safe Labour seats deserted and voted Tory since leaving the EU is clearly more important to them than any form of socialism.
I stand by my assertion that in the here and now Corbynism is just not a sufficient vote winner to propel the Labour Party to power. I don't know if things would have been different with a different leader, Corbyn is distinctly lacking in personal charisma but it's unfair to lay the blame just on him. The British public just didn't want what he was offering.

 

[rummo]

' Corbyn is distinctly lacking in personal charisma but it's unfair to lay the blame just on him. The British public just didn't want what he was offering. '

Did the public know what Corbyn was offering?

Didn't the survey evidence suggest that when Labour's policies were put to voters, without attribution to the party, they were favourably received?

Is it possible that the electorate couldn't get beyond the image of Corbyn that had been put to them by the media, and by his enemies within and outwith the Labour Party as a deranged, anti Semitic, unpatriotic, terrorist loving traitor?