Elpenor
a clown’s heart and a mandolin
Piss off enough different groups of people and it might.I doubt it’ll impact his election chance.
Piss off enough different groups of people and it might.I doubt it’ll impact his election chance.
Given his consistently good polling, I think that's highly unlikely. To the point of impossible. Even if his poll lead shrinks there's no way he's being replaced unless he somehow, miraculously, loses the next GE.The only question is can he be usurped before the election? I won’t hold my breath.
And that is 19.7% of the electorate in Starmer's constituency.British Muslims will be.
It's very possible the tories will win the next election.Given his consistently good polling, I think that's highly unlikely. To the point of impossible. Even if his poll lead shrinks there's no way he's being replaced unless he somehow, miraculously, loses the next GE.
Could it be a principled position? I know we dont see them that often but?Is that Khan growing a backbone or is it Khan going 'This is pissing off a lot of my voters and is a good way to lose the next mayoral election'? Rhetorical question.
And even if he was replaced it would be by wes 'margerine man' streeting who is being groomed as starmer's successor I reckon. Streeting of course, being a man who makes starmer look slightly less beige wallpaper by comparison!Given his consistently good polling, I think that's highly unlikely. To the point of impossible. Even if his poll lead shrinks there's no way he's being replaced unless he somehow, miraculously, loses the next GE.
It's very possible the tories will win the next election.
And even if he was replaced it would be by wes 'margerine man' streeting who is being groomed as starmer's successor I reckon.
If enough thick WC voters vote for them.It's very possible the tories will win the next election.
My own belief is that the Labour party have learnt fuck all from the last ge or tbh the recent by-elections. The reason the tories lost recently is many of their supporters have stayed at home; sure, labour might have won those anyway even with a greater tory turnout, but the swing is artificial. Few people, imo, have had their minds changed by the shammerites. In the 2019 ge shammer played a great part in the Labour debacle due to his fuckwitted brexit policy.It's possible, of course it's possible - but very possible?
How close are you from probable?
There's a basic miscalculation being consistently made throughout the political/media establishment. On every issue they weigh up who will be harmed by a decision and who will approve of it, and if only a minority will be harmed and a majority will approve they go with that decision. The error lies in that these decisions are cumulative. Whilst people will forget what was in the newspaper or on TV yesterday, they can bear a grudge for life if somebody has done something that harmed them. Every single one of us can be labelled in ways that make us part of several minority groups. The grudges mount up. Furthermore the decisions don't solely affect the people in the minority being harmed, they also resonate with anyone who cares about anyone in that minority. We are now in a position in which a clear majority of the electorate have serious grudges against the Tory party and close to a majority have grudges against Starmer's Labour Party. Yet the same mistake keeps being repeated.My own belief is that the Labour party have learnt fuck all from the last ge or tbh the recent by-elections. The reason the tories lost recently is many of their supporters have stayed at home; sure, labour might have won those anyway even with a greater tory turnout, but the swing is artificial. Few people, imo, have had their minds changed by the shammerites. In the 2019 ge shammer played a great part in the Labour debacle due to his fuckwitted brexit policy.
The tories ran a very strong campaign based on few policies - mainly 'get brexit done' and on Corbyn's weaknesses. Labour led with a great array of policies, introducing new ones every few days. Nothing was allowed to settle or be developed, no matter how good an idea they were.
Since assuming the leadership we've found shammer can't be held to anything he's said. Any promises he's made. Things which were shibboleths melt into air. This wasn't the case in 1997, when the Labour party under Blair presented a united front. Blair and brown had been working for years towards the election and where able to hone ideas and target elements of the electorate with an alternative way forwards to the tories. I don't think either of those elements can be found now. The best shammer offers is more efficient toryism.
Sure, the tories are a shambles. But Labour is no less chaotic and arguably they're more so - things which are promises one day are junked the next. They are going to lose many potential adherents over the middle East conflict no matter which way they jump. They'll loss votes over their planning policies. Many people who saw Labour as the great remain hope will be put off by shammer's refusal to countenance exploration of anything more than tinkering with the UK relationship to the eu. And there's 12-15 months before a ge, in which time I very much doubt shammer will turn into a figure widely seen as an attractive alternative to sunak. He's simply a more efficient sunak, not more liberal, offering no positive future. I can't see young people, first time voters, believing he will offer a way forwards on climate change - on their future. Where are the big ideas to bring people to Labour? Simply not being sunak is unlikely to be enough.
And, as we've discussed so many times, the electoral arithmetic is stacked in the tories' favour. The next year is not 1996 or 1997, it's a very unpredictable horror of a year in which we're going to be engages in at least two wars, the one in Ukraine and the other the Middle East. While troops may not be on the ground the UK government is hitched to kyiv and tel aviv, as is the Labour party. But the conflicts are opposite - in Ukraine 'we' oppose the horrors of the Russian occupation and invasion, contrary to international law. In Palestine 'we' support the breaching of international law. How Labour approaches this conundrum will have an influence on the outcome of the ge.
To win shammer has to actually capture people's imaginations as Blair did in 1997. Do you think that's likely? I don't
That's the plan. In a nearly 20% Muslim constituency, with a huge student population, large numbers of council tenants, nurses and junior doctors from two large hospitals residing there, Starmer has spent his time leading the Labour Party attacking, or at best failing to support, a majority of his constituents (yes I have analysed the census data and Starmer's policy U-turns and then crunched the numbers). Even without adding in black people, benefit claimants, and disabled people, he's going to struggle to hold his seat against any decent independent progressive candidate without his baggage. I'm not a big fan of Rayner either, but at least she's likely to be less of an arrogant authoritarian. The only problem is getting people on the left to stop mothering on about needing a new national political party, wanting PR, or waiting for some sort of saviour to step forward, pull their fingers out and get on with joining in the effort to get Starmer out of Parliament. If everyone who wants major change started getting active now, all over the country, Starmer, Reeves, Cooper, Ashworth, Reed, and a load of others would be competing with Ed Balls on celebrity game shows for a living. The Tories could also be kicked out of most of the "red wall" seats, but nobody is going to do it for us.Nah - Rayner is the elected Deputy. If Starmer loses his seat on election night, but Labour win the GE, she'll be appointed PM the next day, and once she's got her feet under the table I can't see anyone else winning the subsequent party leadership election.
Loony left vs sensible centrist exhibit (if people want to just skip to the embarrassing on-air melt down, it begins at around 2:45):
It would only conflate like that if they organise together or the media tries to create that narrative. And let’s face it, Starmer isn’t going to lose the votes he needs by being attacked by a groups that can be dismissed as ‘lefty’ by right wingers…Piss off enough different groups of people and it might.
Come all without, come all within,he mighty quiff is a man whose every instinct hews to prioritising land owners and landlords. I'll believe the right to roam stuff when I see it.
They wrap themselves in the Palestinian flag while looking down at anyone who decks their house out in St George's flags.
They spend more time agitating for the right of men who identify as women to use the ladies' loo than they do for the right of men and women to earn a decent wage.
They reminisce about the miners' strike even as they fight against plans in Cumbria to open Britain's first new deep coal mine for 30 years.
And they loathe Brexit. They will never forgive us little people for voting Leave.
That's the biggest gulf between these new socialists and the old ones. For all their faults, Labour's long-gone radicals – Benn, Barbara Castle, Peter Shore – were Eurosceptic to a man and woman.
Now the new lot are gunning for Sir Keir. Yes, they were on the same side as him in the Brexit wars: he, too, wanted to void the vote for Leave and hold a second referendum. But they view him as a sellout. A cardboard centrist who has betrayed the promise of the Corbyn moment.
They will never forgive him for suspending his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, from the party.
The big question is whether Starmer will budge and accommodate the Sourdough wing. Time will tell. But he'll regret it if he doesn't
That shtick is really tired and I suspect includes a whole lot of projection as he is hardly salt of the earth himself.Brendan O'Neill has written 750-words of absolute shit for the Daily Mail claiming that "Foot fought Bennites, Kinnock battled Militant, and Sir Keir has to deal with 'sourdough Socialists'
No link, but here's a flavour.
That shtick is really tired and I suspect includes a whole lot of projection as he is hardly salt of the earth himself.
"Sourdough socialists" - a loaf of sourdough bread is 2 quid from the co-op. Warburtons toasty white bread is £1.55. This is hardly the preserve of the elite that he seems to think it is. What next, "Stella socialists" who go for the "reassuringly expensive" Stella Artois instead of a cheaper John Smiths? What a load of crap.
Yeah it's just champagne socialists for alcohol-free hipsters isn't it. The idea that if you eat and drink well you're not allowed left-wing politics and must be a fake, viz the working class and the massive forbidden TVs, treacherously expensive smartphones and an obviously middle class ability to speak and write articulately. Things that mark us out as enormous hypocrites and class traitors, or something.
But celeb columnists, grifters and professional bullshitters, all hearty salt of the earth every(wo)men dropping truth bombs. With proper working class parents, obvs
Makes a change from avocado and quinoa munching I suppose