Keir Starmer's time is up

[two sheds]

I'll add this to the how shit is the guardian thread but also relevant here I think. The Toynbee announcing that Margaret Hodge has found some sources of income that have never ever been noticed before.

Where do we find the £100bn needed to fix Britain? Margaret Hodge has the answer | Polly Toynbee

In the Commons, she ripped into the Tories’ economic mismanagement – and pointed a way forward for Labour, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

www.theguardian.com

Had to get a kick in at Corbyn in the final paragraph, just couldn't resist it although as I recall the "extravagance" was pretty well just an end to the progressive austerity since the 80s and actually costed in 2017 and included tax evasion/avoidance" plus quantitative easing which fuels inflation when the left propose it even though the money is going to invest in infrastructure but which is fine when the tories do it even though it's largely going to pay off their covid-supplying mates or paying for their general balls-ups and doesn't touch the infrastructure

(and breathe ).

The reason Hodge’s analysis packs such a punch is that she is no lefty: she calls herself a dyed-in-the-wool Blairite, and is loathed by the left for her anti-Corbyn combat over his unelectable extravagance as well as antisemitism. Reeves should install her as her tax-collecting guardian.

also hated by people on the non-left for protecting a paedophile as people here keep pointing out but unlike the antisemitism smear sneer seems not to bother Toynbee at all.

 

[Knotted]

I keep saying this, but there's a lot of right wingers out there who don't want to vote Tory right now and don't feel driven to voting Tory by the prospect of a Starmer led Labour government. This is why Labour will surely win big even if they lose the Muslim and left vote. There is method in the gormlessness.

The left should prepare for decades of neoliberal Labour government and a resurgent far right.

 

[Rob Ray]

If an ostensible 'block vote' like a particular Muslim community switches their vote

Who to? It's not like the Tories are going to act any differently, if anything they are more overt in their racism outside Gaza-related issues. If such votes go anywhere (my guess is they'll more likely evaporate) it'll be to minor parties like the Lib Dems (who'd coalition in a heartbeat should it come to that) or Greens, which won't unseat most safe MPs (though might let the odd Tory in).

This is why I think it's mostly a council-level problem for him, rather than Parliamentary. The maths of FPTP remains roughly the same Gaza or no Gaza.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Who to? It's not like the Tories are going to act any differently, if anything they are more overt in their racism outside Gaza-related issues. If such votes go anywhere it'll be to minor parties like the Lib Dems (who'd coalition in a heartbeat should it come to that) or Greens, which won't unseat most safe MPs (though might let the odd Tory in).

This is why I think it's mostly a council-level problem for him, rather than Parliamentary. The maths of FPTP remains roughly the same Gaza or no Gaza.

Although I said switch, I agree with you, that begs the question who to. But I've said elsewhere that I think Labour's biggest problem is going to be voter apathy/alienation and low turnout.

So I think many former Labour voters aren't necessarily going to vote Conservative or LibDem or Green, they'll just stay home instead.

 

[Gramsci]

I'll add this to the how shit is the guardian thread but also relevant here I think. The Toynbee announcing that Margaret Hodge has found some sources of income that have never ever been noticed before.

Where do we find the £100bn needed to fix Britain? Margaret Hodge has the answer | Polly Toynbee

In the Commons, she ripped into the Tories’ economic mismanagement – and pointed a way forward for Labour, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

www.theguardian.com

Had to get a kick in at Corbyn in the final paragraph, just couldn't resist it although as I recall the "extravagance" was pretty well just an end to the progressive austerity since the 80s and actually costed in 2017 and included tax evasion/avoidance" plus quantitative easing which fuels inflation when the left propose it even though the money is going to invest in infrastructure but which is fine when the tories do it even though it's largely going to pay off their covid-supplying mates or paying for their general balls-ups and doesn't touch the infrastructure

(and breathe ).


also hated by people on the non-left for protecting a paedophile as people here keep pointing out but unlike the antisemitism smear sneer seems not to bother Toynbee at all.

Corbyns "unelectable extravagance"

It never really was about anti semitism

His policies on things like re nationalisation etc were popular.

Call me a cynic but I thought the Corbyn had to go because of anti semitism but his basic economic programme ( which was done to John McDonnell ) would be kept. Corbynomics with a more electable leader from what I remember.

Now these haters of Corbyn are showing their true colours- they hated everything about Corbynism. Its that anti semitism was most effective way to attack what he stood for.

 

[Gramsci]

He's finally removed the ten broken leadership election pledges from his website.

Just checked and yes:

Keir Starmer - MP for Holborn and St Pancras and Labour Leader

Keir Starmer is a husband, father, and former lawyer who has fought for fairness his whole working life. He is now Labour Party leader.

keirstarmer.com

 

[Petcha]

What a bizarre thing to do on his behalf. All he needs to do is wait, let the Tories destroy themselves which they're doing admirably and the job's his, at a canter. This op-ed will attract a few Tories and alienate a whole lot of traditional Labour voters. Idiotic.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

The problem with safe seats is that many of them in big metropolitan areas are considered safe because eg the likes of Jack Straw in Blackburn took account of what's effectively considered to be a block vote, where communities/families voted along the same lines.

If an ostensible 'block vote' like a particular Muslim community switches their vote, Labour won't be just losing the odd few votes, but hundreds, even thousands.

Hence Starmer's visit to the mosque in Wales, a visit that backfired spectacularly and arguably caused more damage and lost more votes.

Before, Starmer felt he had an anti-Semitism problem that he had to solve, that he had to prove the Labour Party wasn't anti-Semitic and Jewish voters were not only welcome but were safe. (Although, bizarrely, many of those expelled were Jewish Labour Party members.)

Now Starmer has a sort of Islamophobia problem, or rather maybe not Islamophobia exactly, but Islamophobia-adjacent, in that he's seen to have failed to speak out against war crimes, clear breaches of international law, a massacre, arguably a genocide, a humanitarian disaster.

Why? Is he just a weak leader? Does he lack principles and/or the courage of his convictions? Or could it be that having made combatting antisemitism in the Labour Party such a central plank of tenure in office (to the extent that even many Jewish party members have been expelled), that he's now too scared to speak out against Israel lest he be accused of antisemitism himself?

And the cost of that is that he's Othering Gazans, Palestinians. They're effectively collateral damage, their lives are a price worth paying for his continuance in office.

Many on the left will take issue with that strategy. What price he ends up paying remains to be seen. Whether he'll lose his seat at the next election or whether Labour will lose.

He's certainly pissed off a sizeable, and growing, proportion of the electorate. (Albeit many of these are currently under voting age.)

"According to the 2011 Census, 2.7 million Muslims lived in England and Wales, up by almost 1 million from the previous census, where they formed 5.0% of the general population[3] and 9.1% of children under the age of five.[4]

According to the latest 2021 United Kingdom census, 3,801,186 Muslims live in England, or 6.7% of the population. The Muslim population again grew by over a million compared to the previous census.[5][6]"

Islam in England - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

He has got EXACTLY that problem in his own constituency. Where he has getting on for 20,000 Muslim voters currently trying to mobilise against him. Whilst some of them will have previously voted for other parties it's still a massive proportion of his majority gone pretty much in a matter of weeks, and they aren't going to be forgetting why any time soon. He's had a prominent black Camden Labour councillor speak out against his lack of concern for the large Afro-Caribbean community in his patch at at a council Labour group meeting in the last few days. All he now has to do is say something that seriously ticks off students or council tenants and his majority is completely gone. The Labour right (and indeed the entire political establishment are operating on the basis that everybody forgets what they saw in the news last week, but aren't paying attention to the simple fact that people can hold a grudge for a lifetime.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

What a bizarre thing to do on his behalf. All he needs to do is wait, let the Tories destroy themselves which they're doing admirably and the job's his, at a canter. This op-ed will attract a few Tories and alienate a whole lot of traditional Labour voters. Idiotic.

I no longer think he is there to win power. He seems to just be there to root every trace of anything but neoliberalism from the Labour Party.

 

[redsquirrel]

as we have said many many times the tories only need to be five points above labour on the day of the ge to win; labour need to lead by 12 points.

Where does that prediction come from?
The distribution efficiency of the Labour vote in 2019 was very bad, but that distribution is not set in stone. The distribution of vote helped Labour, and hurt the Tories, in 2010 and 2015.

 

[belboid]

12% was when Labour were well behind in Scotland and only due to pick up a couple of extra seats, iirr. Now that Labour look like winning about half of them, it must be well down now. A majority is all but locked in at this stage.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

A majority is all but locked in at this stage.

I still am not convinced that starmer doesn't have the potential to balls it all up...

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I still am not convinced that starmer doesn't have the potential to balls it all up...

True. He might win a few Tory votes by writing in the Sun or the Telegraph, but he can still lose more, eg Liverpool votes for writing in the Sun, Muslim votes for not speaking out against illegal-under-international-law collective punishment in Gaza, Jewish votes over not being supportive enough about anti-Semitism/not supporting Israel enough, women's votes over gender ID, etc, etc.

So Starmer can potentially lose a lot more votes because of those issues than he gains by talking tough about immigration and 'fiscal responsibility' ie promising more austerity, which hasn't worked.

 

[Petcha]

He just needs to continue his policy of having no policies at all and he's sorted. He must have got bored or something. My dog could win a landslide at this point against the shower that is the Tory party.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

also hated by people on the non-left for protecting a paedophile as people here keep pointing out but unlike the antisemitism smear sneer seems not to bother Toynbee at all.

That last being one of the two beefs she has had with Corbyn from back when she was leader of Islington Council and he was prepared to back his constituents when they had problems. Problems like kids being sexually abused and a Jewish cemetery being built over, trivial stuff like that which shouldn't get in the way of Party loyalty in Hodges' opinion.

 

[Dystopiary]

Toynbee is scum.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Toynbee is scum.

Likewise Hodge. Truly a match made in hell.

 

[Pickman's model]

Where does that prediction come from?
The distribution efficiency of the Labour vote in 2019 was very bad, but that distribution is not set in stone. The distribution of vote helped Labour, and hurt the Tories, in 2010 and 2015.

I'm sure if you go back you'll find where I've linked to sources, here's one saying they need a 14 point swing to win without Scotland To win an outright Commons majority, Labour will have to gamble

 

[SpookyFrank]

He just needs to continue his policy of having no policies at all and he's sorted. He must have got bored or something. My dog could win a landslide at this point against the shower that is the Tory party.

Everyone who meets my dog loves him.

Keir Starmer on the other hand, if he had a dog even the dog wouldn't like him.

 

[Pickman's model]

He just needs to continue his policy of having no policies at all and he's sorted. He must have got bored or something. My dog could win a landslide at this point against the shower that is the Tory party.

Your dog may prove a more adroit and canny politician than sir k shammer

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I'm sure if you go back you'll find where I've linked to sources, here's one saying they need a 14 point swing to win without Scotland To win an outright Commons majority, Labour will have to gamble

A 14 point swing is a bit different from needing a similar size lead though isn't it.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

I don't believe this next general election can be predicted at all well any looking in terms of vote shares as if the will be anywhere near homogenous across the country. A lot of it is going to be about people who have become sick of the particular individual piece of pond slime failing to represent them in Parliament. A lot of it will depend on how many supporters of the main parties will bother to do any campaigning, and a lot of that will depend very much about how local party members feel about their party leadership, and that's going to be very different in different places. Just about the only existing party that I am not aware of any rift between local members and national party leadership at least in some constituencies are the Lib Dems. Local factors are going to be massive and as the turnout is likely to be extremely low I expect a lot of (quite predictable) surprises. In a lot of places where Labour have a big majority over the Tories they may not have a majority over a serious challenge from the left or even from the Green Party (if they can be bothered to make an effort in more than just two seats). In a lot of places the Tories have a big lead over Labour due to a lot of One Nation Tories who are sick of the corrupt bigots they have put into Parliament and may well vote Lib Dem this time around. In the "red wall" seats an awful lot of voters are regretting getting a Tory MP who is even less use than the uncaring Labour Party apparatchik they kicked out. It is a VERY messy picture even leaving out what is likely to happen in Scotland.

 

[two sheds]

Tories have upped spending limits so they'll presumably use that to their advantage.

 

[Pickman's model]

A 14 point swing is a bit different from needing a similar size lead though isn't it.

For example

Why changes in electoral geography will help Labour win a majority

The Conservatives are so far behind they need an unprecedented recovery to retain power

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

 

[Puddy_Tat]

quite a lot of labour MPs on teh tweeter being not very complimentary about thatcher today...

 

[redsquirrel]

For example

Why changes in electoral geography will help Labour win a majority

The Conservatives are so far behind they need an unprecedented recovery to retain power

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

Which goes back to what I said - based on the 2019 distribution yes Labour would be 'disadvantaged', from the Curtice paper linked to in that piece (my emphasis)

To address this issue, we examine what would happen were another election to be held on the current constituency boundaries, with the same turnout, levels of third-party support and electoral geography, but with different levels of support for Labour and the Conservatives. In other words, we examine what would be the impact on the outcome in seats of a uniform swing between the two largest parties, given the elec- toral geography of party support in 2019.

The Conservatives were rewarded more richly than Labour would have been because their vote was more efficiently distributed across con- stituencies

But that is not a given, indeed the efficiency of the Tory vote was less in 2019 than it was in 2017

That said, two other potential sources of bias worked more to the Conservatives’ disadvantage than in 2017.......

I'm not going to predict that the Labour vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Tory vote in 2024 (or 2025) but I'd be bloody surprised if the Labour vote in the next GE is not more efficiently distributed than it was in 2019.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

"Keir Starmer sparks backlash with praise of Margaret Thatcher
Labour party leader says former prime minister one of three key change-makers in modern British politics"

Keir Starmer sparks backlash with praise of Margaret Thatcher

Labour party leader says former prime minister one of three key change-makers in modern British politics

www.ft.com

Meanwhile, "Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting has in the past heaped censure on her “sink or swim mentality” towards jobs, while on Sunday shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News she was a “formidable opponent” but stressed he was not a fan."

Are those being quoted lining themselves up or being lined up as potential replacements for Starmer?

 

[miktheword]

Labour takes for granted the votes of eg Asian heritage Muslims in many of the big cities where there are Labour seats of the so safe kind where you could stick a red rosette on a donkey and it would be elected. (Didn't Jack Straw once say something about "my Muslims" or am I misremembering?)

I definitely remember Hattersley saying 'my Asians' about somewhere in Birmingham.

 

[_Russ_]

Although I said switch, I agree with you, that begs the question who to. But I've said elsewhere that I think Labour's biggest problem is going to be voter apathy/alienation and low turnout.

So I think many former Labour voters aren't necessarily going to vote Conservative or LibDem or Green, they'll just stay home instead.

I'm at the point of considering this. Even knowing what it means in practice ...its now at the point where voting for Labour would for me be purely tactical and would leave a very bad aftertaste

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm at the point of considering this. Even knowing what it means in practice ...its now at the point where voting for Labour would for me be purely tactical and would leave a very bad aftertaste

My vote doesn't matter as I'm in a safe labour seat, but I'm now not even sure I want Labour to win the next election. The only problem with Starmer somehow managing to fuck it up is that the lesson some in Labour would no doubt learn from that is that they clearly weren't right wing enough.

The UK's undemocratic electoral system traps us in this two-party system. Like PSOE in Spain, Labour needs to split. It could even be worth having a few more years of the tories to make that happen. I don't know. We don't have Spain's electoral system. So we are faced with a bunch of options none of which are any good.