Keir Starmer's time is up
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DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
all PMs in my life have genuflected before the altar of Our Lady of Monetarism.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
I'm not so sure Labour will win. Yes, the Tories are in the lead in 'who is more likely to lose' terms. But elections can be thought of in terms of being lost and/or being won.
So while, yes, the Conservatives are on track for losing, given their terrible track record, the appalling corruption and failures leading to so many deaths during the pandemic, the ongoing fall-out of the fuckwittery that was/is Brexit, etc... I don't believe it's clear-cut that Labour will win.
Labour takes for granted the votes of eg Asian heritage Muslims in many of the big cities where there are Labour seats of the so safe kind where you could stick a red rosette on a donkey and it would be elected. (Didn't Jack Straw once say something about "my Muslims" or am I misremembering?)
The recent events in Israel-Gaza will be a huge issue in the minds of those Asian heritage Muslims, plus those of other heritage Arab Muslims, African Muslims, etc. And also humanitarians and campaigners involved with eg Palestinian Solidarity Campaign, various anti-war/anti-arms trade groups, etc.
Many of those are on the left and 'natural' Labour voters, perhaps members of the Labour Party, maybe even holders of office in CLPs, maybe even local councillors.
Starmer's failure to call out war crimes in the first instance, by saying Israel has a right to cut off water and power to Gaza, was abhorrent and will not be readily forgiven by many.
Starmer's a former human rights barrister, so would surely have known international law forbids collective punishment.
And after that failure, he's compounded his error in judgement and confirmed he's devoid of any principles or even basic compassion, by refusing to call for or back a ceasefire. And given how many Labour MPs have lined up behind him and refused to rock the boat, failed to grow a spine themselves, they've not covered themselves in glory over this issue either and it remains to be seen how much of a backlash there will be against them.
So I don't think a Labour victory is a given. Yes, the Tories are losing, but that doesn't necessarily mean Labour will win. Because in order to win they need votes, but I suspect turnout will be low, because many of the former Labour faithful will simply abstain themselves, much like many of their representatives did over Gaza.
The only way Labour will have a hope in hell of winning the next election is if Starmer is replaced.
(And as an aside: it's not just Israel-Gaza that will potentially be Labour's downfall. There's a different issue that's causing many women lefty, even current or former Labour party members to say they now feel politically homeless and won't be voting Labour again.)
The danger is that people who would formerly have voted Labour who now feel politically homeless will simply stay at home and not vote. So I think there's a real risk that the Conservative vote might crash enough to lose them the election, but Labour won't gain enough votes to win it, because of the number of voters who won't be able to bring themselves to hold their nose and vote for a Starmer-led Labour Party.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Of mine i don't recall callaghan or Wilson kowtowing to her and Edward heath certainly didn't
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I won't say Labour will get a parliamentary majority but they are much further ahead of the Tories in polling than they were in 1992, this far out from the election.
And I cannot really see Labour losing many seats they already have - ok there might be an upset if Corbyn runs, but those are the exceptions - and they have a more favourable picture in Scotland than they have had for some time.
And I cannot really see Labour losing many seats they already have - ok there might be an upset if Corbyn runs, but those are the exceptions - and they have a more favourable picture in Scotland than they have had for some time.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
How do you think they'll do in shammer's constituency?
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Not true really- SNP have a double digit lead over Labour according to this poll last week despite a rumbling low level ministerial scandal that is going on…and on.
In Scotland Sir Kieth is about as popular as asbestos fritters.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Wither the Labour party: Sir keithly's legacy may be no bad thing
Problem I’ve noticed is many people I know hate Starmer but will vote for him to get the Tories out. I’m convinced the media want Starmer to win. That will push the Tories to the Right ( National Conservatives) as soon as he gets in the media will go for him.I’m fairly sure we are the only country in the EU that hasn’t gota “ electable “ populist right party.
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krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
In the EU?Problem I’ve noticed is many people I know hate Starmer but will vote for him to get the Tories out. I’m convinced the media want Starmer to win. That will push the Tories to the Right ( National Conservatives) as soon as he gets in the media will go for him.I’m fairly sure we are the only country in the EU that hasn’t gota “ electable “ populist right party.
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AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
If they're anything like in Manchester, they have a relatively small number of very enthusiastic activists involved in Green Party politics and green-adjacent campaigns and initiatives across the constituency/local authority area year round, then there are those who pitch in and help out with canvassing around election time.
They generally have a few target wards where they will actively leaflet and canvass, but most wards will have a 'paper candidate' whose name goes on the ballot paper but there isn't any active campaigning and instead that candidate and party members in that ward will assist efforts in the target wards.
That's why it can look like 'they're doing nothing' elsewhere in the constituency, because they're so thin on the ground and have limited resources (both people and financial).
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
More favourable, not necessarily favourable. But I take your point
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
"Labour leader says former PM ‘set loose our natural entrepreneurialism’ in appeal to Tory voters to back him"
Keir Starmer praises Margaret Thatcher for bringing ‘meaningful change’ to UK
Labour leader says former PM ‘set loose our natural entrepreneurialism’ in appeal to Tory voters to back himwww.theguardian.com
Fucking tosser, every time you think he's scraped the bottom of the barrel ...
"Across Britain, there are people who feel disillusioned, frustrated, angry, worried. Many of them have always voted Conservative but feel that their party has left them,” he said. “I understand that. I saw that with my own party and acted to fix it.
Reading the first bits, I was thinking maybe he should focus less on appealing to Tories who think their party has left them, and maybe he should focus more on Labour voters and those on the left who think that Labour has lost its way.
But then I saw that he thinks he's achieved that.
The man's deluded. He's driving away voters in droves and he's clueless.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Three years ago people were going on about how clueless Starmer was, some posters prophesying that the Greens were going to challenge Labour. Now Labour has taken a number of what were safe Tory seats and are ~20 points ahead in the polls.
I don't like Starmer, I think his politics are terrible, I believe simply focussing on swing voters is not just politically harmful but, longer term, a bad electoral strategy.
But under FPTP you do need to win marginals and take at least a decent proportion of swing voters. And Starmer tactics are working on that level/ white I would not be at all surprised if Labour's share of the vote of the electorate is lower than in 2017 (possibly 2019) they are getting votes in the marginals
I don't like Starmer, I think his politics are terrible, I believe simply focussing on swing voters is not just politically harmful but, longer term, a bad electoral strategy.
But under FPTP you do need to win marginals and take at least a decent proportion of swing voters. And Starmer tactics are working on that level/ white I would not be at all surprised if Labour's share of the vote of the electorate is lower than in 2017 (possibly 2019) they are getting votes in the marginals
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Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I think people are potentially overestimating the damage that's been done tbh, at least for the 2024 GE. Starmer's clearly working on the "nowhere else to go" model and historically that's not a bad bet - people do vote for the lesser scumbag and if he can gather wobbly Tories they could well make up for the minority of lost red-principled types who, let's be honest, are usually in safe seats. I think Gaza loses him council seats, but I don't see it losing him many green ones.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
Fuck. Me.
"It is too easy to look at Britain today and throw your hands up in despair... the idea that our country no longer works for those it is supposed to.
... In these difficult conditions, the current Government resembles nothing so much as the sinking Mary Rose: overburdened, incompetently handled, plunging into the depths."
I got this far and despaired. This is Starmer trying his best to connect with and appeal to people?
The line about "the idea that our country no longer works for those it is supposed to" is very ambiguous, and I would guess deliberately so, because Starmer's a duplicitous and hypocritical sleazeball.
Many people might, rightly, think he's correct in that politics and government works for the one per cent, like Michelle Mone, and the friends of Michael Gove and Matt Hancock, etc, etc, who made millions in PPE contracts in the pandemic, etc.
But he's appealing to people via the right-wing press, who are much more likely to be thinking: I'm taxed too much, I'm one of the workers, not the shirkers, I'm one of the strivers, not the skivers, our country no longer works for people like me, it works for benefits scroungers and immigrants.
It's insidious and invidious to be playing dog whistle politics like that.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
"Labour’s plan for Britain is austerity piled high"Richard Murphy has this bit of analysis of Labour unders Starmer bases on his Torygraph article:
Labour’s plan for Britain is austerity piled high
Keir Starmer has a deeply depressing article in The Telegraph this morning. He began by talking about: It is in this sense of public service that Labour has changed dramatically in the last three years. The course of shock therapy we gave our party had one purpose: to ensure that we were...www.taxresearch.org.uk
The closing sentence:
'A Labour government led by Keir Starmer will be a disaster for this country.'
"The crass stupidity that is Labour's fiscal rule - that will guarantee austerity and failing public services in the UK- is out to the fire of Labour policy."
Because the austerity that we've been subjected to since 2010 has worked so well so far.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
Yes, that's my recollection too.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the thing is that the damage hasn't yet really been done. the election campaign in which shammer will be on every news bulletin hasn't started. as we have said many many times the tories only need to be five points above labour on the day of the ge to win; labour need to lead by 12 points.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
and is that before or after the gerrymandering with constituency boundaries and the voter suppression?
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Christ almighty. Unashamed irony, thy name is Keith.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
with his own party. which is undoubtedly why he served in the shadow cabinet under corbyn, and why he promoted an eu policy it now appears he did not believe in to scupper the election chances of his party,
Gramsci
Well-Known Member
Keir Starmer praises Margaret Thatcher for bringing ‘meaningful change’ to UK
Labour leader says former PM ‘set loose our natural entrepreneurialism’ in appeal to Tory voters to back him
Fucking tosser, every time you think he's scraped the bottom of the barrel ...
Noticed this in the Guardian article:
A thing I really dislike about Starmer is that this is the polar opposite of what he said when he was campaigning to be leader of the party.
Secondly it comes across as extremely nasty. It sounds like he is relishing what he's done.
GarveyLives
Well-Known Member
... sometimes they even tell you who they are when there is no moment of surprise ...
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Larry O'Hara
Well-Known Member
To be fair she was only briefly Opposition Leader while Wilson was busy contending MI5/BOSS plot against himself…
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
boundary changes often affect labour more eg Boundary changes to hit Labour
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
The problem with safe seats is that many of them in big metropolitan areas are considered safe because eg the likes of Jack Straw in Blackburn took account of what's effectively considered to be a block vote, where communities/families voted along the same lines.
If an ostensible 'block vote' like a particular Muslim community switches their vote, Labour won't be just losing the odd few votes, but hundreds, even thousands.
Hence Starmer's visit to the mosque in Wales, a visit that backfired spectacularly and arguably caused more damage and lost more votes.
Before, Starmer felt he had an anti-Semitism problem that he had to solve, that he had to prove the Labour Party wasn't anti-Semitic and Jewish voters were not only welcome but were safe. (Although, bizarrely, many of those expelled were Jewish Labour Party members.)
Now Starmer has a sort of Islamophobia problem, or rather maybe not Islamophobia exactly, but Islamophobia-adjacent, in that he's seen to have failed to speak out against war crimes, clear breaches of international law, a massacre, arguably a genocide, a humanitarian disaster.
Why? Is he just a weak leader? Does he lack principles and/or the courage of his convictions? Or could it be that having made combatting antisemitism in the Labour Party such a central plank of tenure in office (to the extent that even many Jewish party members have been expelled), that he's now too scared to speak out against Israel lest he be accused of antisemitism himself?
And the cost of that is that he's Othering Gazans, Palestinians. They're effectively collateral damage, their lives are a price worth paying for his continuance in office.
Many on the left will take issue with that strategy. What price he ends up paying remains to be seen. Whether he'll lose his seat at the next election or whether Labour will lose.
He's certainly pissed off a sizeable, and growing, proportion of the electorate. (Albeit many of these are currently under voting age.)
"According to the 2011 Census, 2.7 million Muslims lived in England and Wales, up by almost 1 million from the previous census, where they formed 5.0% of the general population[3] and 9.1% of children under the age of five.[4]
According to the latest 2021 United Kingdom census, 3,801,186 Muslims live in England, or 6.7% of the population. The Muslim population again grew by over a million compared to the previous census.[5][6]"
Islam in England - Wikipedia
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