Keir Starmer's time is up
- Thread starter agricola
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ska invita
back on the other side
with certain unions threatening taking away funding i can imagine them yet overplaying these shit stained cards
It's now hard to see either Starmer or Johnson going before the next election and odds on that Labour will form a minority government IMO. It seems that Starmer's biggest weakness is in campaigning and getting the vote out, which to be fair is crucial. But at the same time the Tories are surely not going to recover from the cost of living crisis even if they can brave partygate etc. So Starmer next PM I recon. Do I put my money where my mouth is?
ska invita
back on the other side
yeah but when the labour campaign is to the right of the Torys on tax and spend more on cops and army its not exactly a vote winner re cost of living
Nobody knows what Labour's positions are and they look like they are going to keep it that way. I think it will probably work. Technocratic centrism is a hard sell in this period, but I think the Tories are going to have an even harder sell this time.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Do you feel lucky, punk?
ska invita
back on the other side
Then again there is the theory that people en masse don't really care about policy detail, they care about the 'character' of the leader, and at best the odd headline policy . I can still see Johnson winning, though it also depends how smart their campaign is post-Cummings.
it'll be a depressing outcome either way
Agree on the last.
I'm thinking of it this way. Both main parties have a more volatile voter base than they used to have. Labour more than the Tories, but Tory voting intentions can still drop really quite low - see the 2019 Euro elections and their immediate aftermath for example. So it's a question of getting the Tory vote out or at least a question of getting the anti-Labour vote out. Starmer's good at not firming up the Tory vote, and the economic pain Tory voters are feeling is likely to drive them away from the polling stations even if it doesn't drive them to vote Labour. By contrast Johnson's failing government might firm up a flagging Labour base. So my Casandra-ism is that we'll see a one term Labour government maybe 2024-9. One term, because Starmer's not reversing Labour's long term decline.
But I don't think Starmer will win because of his character. Because he doesn't have one.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Say what you like about him (and I see some on this thread are), he absolutely exudes a "Kinnock c.1988" energy about him. And his Shadow Cabinet. Reeves refusing to answer questions about industrial action could be any Labour front-bencher during the miners' strike and Streeting today on trans (women have vaginas apparently!) has toxic echoes of the twistings and turnings over Section 28. Christ, we even have a good old fashioned witch-hunt against (the rapidly falling) membership. More proscriptions? How very 80s!
Time passes, the country moves on, but Labour just go round and round in ever diminishing circles.
Time passes, the country moves on, but Labour just go round and round in ever diminishing circles.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
There were many people who thought the Tories couldn't win in 1992 - they'd been in office for 13 years and the country was mired in the second worst recession since the War. Thousands were losing their homes in the negative equity crash.
But we all know what happened next.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Final point from me - Starmer has had the most compliant, sympathetic and supportive press and media coverage of any Labour Leader since Blair in 1994. That will all change about 12 weeks out from a General Election (more echoes of 1992). Then we will see what happens. Personally, I think it couldn't happen to a nicer chap!
I don't think there's much of an attack angle on Starmer. They're trying culture war stuff atm, but the thing is that the Tories are talking about levelling up, so rhetorically they're on the same page and there isn't a economic angle to attack Starmer with and I think the culture war is all they've got. That sort of thing won't firm up the Tory base, because 1) it ultimately doesn't affect them like the economy affects their wallet and 2) they think the Tories are too woke as well anyway.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
I think you'll find the 'shifty London lawyer with some sort of connection to Jimmy Savile' angle has a lot of mileage in it. And have you heard his voice? Also, of course, he is Mr Remain as the prime architect of Labour's suicide referendum policy in 2019, I doubt the Tory tabloids have forgotten that.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Strangely the poll tax is missing from your post. Which had a far greater effect on vastly more people than the negative equity did.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Indeed it did. Labour still lost in 1992!
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Leaving labour's advice to pay the poll tax until they entered government and abolished it in tatters
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
The stuff about the Poll Tax is a useful reminder about how open the goal was for Labour in 1992 and therefore how bad the miss. And yet it was spun (by Mandelson et al) as Labour being 'too left wing' and paved the way for 'New Labour'. This is the template the Labour Right are working to now for 2024.
Serene
Slightly disgruntled
Im sure that Starmer thinks the working class all wear cloth caps and smell. Im sure he wants to move in with Brexit voters. I heard that he is requiring, soon, that all Labour party members wear at least one item of Union Jack clothing and that they make regular donations to the Parachute regiment.
Jeremiah18.17
Well-Known Member
The Tories are just going to be culture war, culture war, culture war until the next election aren’t they? And experience tells us that Labour will play “me too”, or at best “they’ve got a point but we wouldn’t go as far” in response, aren’t they - alienating more of the youth and socially liberal vote to (probably unsuccessfully) chase the blue labour/red wall retired vote that the culture war strategy targets. 2016 all over again… Still, cost of living crisis might get so severe as to nullify culture war, but wouldn’t bank on it…
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Sales of union jack underwear are rising in the stores along victoria street
I could see a Labour-led coalition. Labour will win a few seats back from the Tories and Lib Dems will make gains in Tory shires, preventing a Tory majority, however SNP, Plaid, Lib Dems and Greens will make a Labour majority impossible. Labour will probably try to cobble together a coalition with the Lib Dems and Greens.
Serene
Slightly disgruntled
Thats an interesting thought. Thank you. I shall be pondering that with my morning Coffee.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
It'll take a lot of persuasion to get many Labour MPs to agree with a coalition in general terms never mind one with the LibDems. In some CLPs members would rather cross the street than have polite conversation with a LD!
andysays
Love and solidarity
Not sure to what extent Starmer is directly involved or responsible, but this is a shit situation which doesn't reflect well on him or his leadership.
Labour staff 'gagged' over sexual harassment claims
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