Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Dom Traynor]

I think if Corbyn stood as an indie he would be in with a chance in the same way that the Blanau Gwent people won the seat off of Labour that time and Ken won in London and that Scottish Labour MP who got elected a few times after going indie... He would also get an army of Labour and recently ex Labour people looking to give the Labour leadership a bloody nose without letting the Tories in. I think if he stood for a new party he would have less chance, personally. However I think he could end up retiring from the Commons or having the whip restored, although it's hard to see how the leadership could restore the whip at this stage...

I think most people (most recently the Change UK wankers) underestimate the need for a party machine but I would argue that Corbyn like the others I've named has a personal machine that trump's a party one particularly under the current leader.

 

[killer b]

The major parties often assume that only a few angry nutjobs will be fool enough to abandon the warm bosom of their party home and vote for a newly independent candidate.

for the most part they'd be right - it's only under very specific - and rare - circumstances they come unstuck. I'm fairly confident Corbyn's case is one of those circumstances though...

 

[killer b]

He would also get an army of Labour and recently ex Labour people looking to give the Labour leadership a bloody nose without letting the Tories in.

they would all be ex-Labour if they campaigned for a non-Labour candidate tbf

 

[Dom Traynor]

they would all be ex-Labour if they campaigned for a non-Labour candidate tbf

Yeah of course. I think a lot of people would risk it at this stage.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Out of all the MPs out there I think he (and possibly Diane Abbot) would be the best placed to win as an independent. Not that he definitely would but he'd be in with a chance in a way the likes of Chukka Umunna clearly never were. Especially against a Labour party that seems to see being incredibly uninspiring as its preferred strategy. I'd like to see him try anyway.

 

[Brainaddict]

Does it really matter what Corbyn does at this point? He's hit the buffers and I think any attempts to push him further as the lynchpin of some political project, whether it's a new party or just proving that people hate Keir Starmer, will ultimately go nowhere. Time to move on, surely?

 

[killer b]

Does it really matter what Corbyn does at this point? He's hit the buffers and I think any attempts to push him further as the lynchpin of some political project, whether it's a new party or just proving that people hate Keir Starmer, will ultimately go nowhere. Time to move on, surely?

I doubt anyone here is expecting a new political movement to form behind him at this point tbf, we're all just here to argue about whether his personal vote will hold up.

 

[billy_bob]

for the most part they'd be right - it's only under very specific - and rare - circumstances they come unstuck. I'm fairly confident Corbyn's case is one of those circumstances though...

Yeah, that's what I meant. Clearly there are plenty of narcissists and chancers for whom it hasn't worked (did someone say Change UK again?) but again, I think it'd be difficult to paint Corbyn as either of those in the circumstances.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Yeah it's just nerd stuff plus maybe the chance to laugh at the look on Starmer's face isn't it. I'm not convinced more than a handful of people have ever seen him as some sort of messiah tbh and certainly no-one now is thinking of him as the head of any sort of movement.

 

[kebabking]

The impression I get, and the logic, is that Labour are absolutely desperate for Corbyn to stand as an indy, both to be rid of him, and to be rid of anyone who supports him - and they are perfectly happy to lose one seat, that they'd be practically guaranteed to win back in any subsequent election, to do it.

I also see Labour as being very happy to see a 'Corbyn party' attract every crank and loon going, dissolve into the endless infighting in which the left specialises, and to serve as both a signpost to the dangers of internal dissent, and as a demonstration to the electorate that Labour are not the Corbyn party.

Whether they are correct about their assumptions I've no idea - my political forecasting, never brilliant, has fallen off into 'are you on Crack? levels of accuracy - but that's definitely the thinking....

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Ooh! That’s going to need a name..

Bad Boyz 4 Life?

 

[killer b]

The impression I get, and the logic, is that Labour are absolutely desperate for Corbyn to stand as an indy, both to be rid of him, and to be rid of anyone who supports him - and they are perfectly happy to lose one seat, that they'd be practically guaranteed to win back in any subsequent election, to do it.

I also see Labour as being very happy to see a 'Corbyn party' attract every crank and loon going, dissolve into the endless infighting in which the left specialises, and to serve as both a signpost to the dangers of internal dissent, and as a demonstration to the electorate that Labour are not the Corbyn party.

Whether they are correct about their assumptions I've no idea - my political forecasting, never brilliant, has fallen off into 'are you on Crack? levels of accuracy - but that's definitely the thinking....

I think this is all probably about right tbh, as far as their thinking goes, and I think they're probably right this time. I'd be delighted for it to be the latest hilarious miscalculation on the part of the labour right tho

 

[belboid]

Corbyn would fucking walk it if he stood as an independent/new party leader.

Galloway came fucking close despite being a piece of shit. The biggest worry for Corbyn would be his 250,000 canvassers falling over one another.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The impression I get, and the logic, is that Labour are absolutely desperate for Corbyn to stand as an indy, both to be rid of him, and to be rid of anyone who supports him - and they are perfectly happy to lose one seat, that they'd be practically guaranteed to win back in any subsequent election, to do it.

I also see Labour as being very happy to see a 'Corbyn party' attract every crank and loon going, dissolve into the endless infighting in which the left specialises, and to serve as both a signpost to the dangers of internal dissent, and as a demonstration to the electorate that Labour are not the Corbyn party.

Whether they are correct about their assumptions I've no idea - my political forecasting, never brilliant, has fallen off into 'are you on Crack? levels of accuracy - but that's definitely the thinking....

I think this is about right. Using social media it'd be easy for them to net loads of those supporting an independent Corbyn candidacy and expel them for supporting a non-Labour candidate. Even if Corbyn won, the upsides (from their perspective) - mass expulsions, media praise, disciplinary action against Campaign Group MPs who backed him - would easily outweigh the embarrassment. However, I think your second paragraph summarizes precisely why they won't get their wish. Backing an indy Corby campaign would require an tacit acceptance from the left that large numbers of its supporters would be placing themselves outside of the party. But like previous attempts from the left and the right a new party would be stillborn. There is no groundswell of support - the Corbyn moment has long dissipated - or immediate issue where a Corbyn/McDonnell type party might be able to organize around and grow from. As ever, the left and the right of the Party are stuck with each other.....

 

[The39thStep]

I think this is about right. Using social media it'd be easy for them to net loads of those supporting an independent Corbyn candidacy and expel them for supporting a non-Labour candidate. Even if Corbyn won, the upsides (from their perspective) - mass expulsions, media praise, disciplinary action against Campaign Group MPs who backed him - would easily outweigh the embarrassment. However, I think your second paragraph summarizes precisely why they won't get their wish. Backing an indy Corby campaign would require an tacit acceptance from the left that large numbers of its supporters would be placing itself outside of the party. But like previous attempts from the left and the right a new party would be stillborn. There is no groundswell of support - the Corbyn moment has long dissipated - or immediate issue where a Corbyn/McDonnell type party might be able to organize around and grow from. As ever, the left and the right of the Party are stuck with each other.....

Well what’s left of the left and the right in the party.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Does it really matter what Corbyn does at this point? He's hit the buffers and I think any attempts to push him further as the lynchpin of some political project, whether it's a new party or just proving that people hate Keir Starmer, will ultimately go nowhere. Time to move on, surely?

Any genuine attempt to form a new leftist party would, realistically, have to be Corbyn-free. A good 50% of the population has already been convinced that he's a mad communist/terrorist/insert scary thing he's clearly not.

 

[8ball]

Any genuine attempt to form a new leftist party would, realistically, have to be Corbyn-free. A good 50% of the population has already been convinced that he's a mad communist/terrorist/insert scary thing he's clearly not.

Without quibbling over percentages, would anyone so easily convinced by the right-wing press be likely to show interest in a new leftist party?

 

[billy_bob]

I'm sure the right-wing press would find a way to do a hatchet job on whoever this new leftist party field as a representative, Corbyn or otherwise.

 

[Wilf]

Does it really matter what Corbyn does at this point? He's hit the buffers and I think any attempts to push him further as the lynchpin of some political project, whether it's a new party or just proving that people hate Keir Starmer, will ultimately go nowhere. Time to move on, surely?

Also, this is all about him. If they let him stand he'll be happy to sit in starmer's party and only makes the (potential) leap to forming something else when he personally is blocked.

 

[Plumdaff]

Also, this is all about him. If they let him stand he'll be happy to sit in starmer's party and only makes the (potential) leap to forming something else when he personally is blocked.

Yes, I think there's an underestimation of Corbyn's proven, decades-long loyalty for good or (largely) ill to the Labour Party. He won't stand against them as he is a member, and not only does he know they are itching to expel him, but I don't think even now he'd want to stand against a Labour candidate. So there's a stalemate.

 

[agricola]

Yes, I think there's an underestimation of Corbyn's proven, decades-long loyalty for good or (largely) ill to the Labour Party. He won't stand against them as he is a member, and not only does he know they are itching to expel him, but I don't think even now he'd want to stand against a Labour candidate. So there's a stalemate.

I agree with most of this, but not so much the last bit. Would his CLP deselect him? Would there be an open process to select whatever candidate it was standing against him? I am not sure neither would happen so I can’t see him not standing in the event of a fix.

 

[PR1Berske]

The experience of ChangeUK has possibly stunted any immediate plans to create new parties any time soon. He might be considering what comes next without going all the way to launching a new brand.

 

[elbows]

The experience of ChangeUK has possibly stunted any immediate plans to create new parties any time soon. He might be considering what comes next without going all the way to launching a new brand.

Big difference between something like Change UK and a single candidate, single seat party. Although Change UK did end up trending in that direction and beyond

 

[Wilf]

Change had their launch at Nando's. Where would Corbyn launch/have his tea at?

 

[8ball]

Change had their launch at Nando's. Where would Corbyn launch/have his tea at?

All Bar One

 

[Sue]

Change had their launch at Nando's. Where would Corbyn launch/have his tea at?

One of the local Turkish restaurants of which there are many. Mmmmm.

 

[chilango]

Change had their launch at Nando's. Where would Corbyn launch/have his tea at?

Some Palestinian place to guarantee maximum press coverage.

 

[8ball]

He’d bring some sandwiches.
Enough for everyone, though.

 

[Pickman's model]

One of the local Turkish restaurants of which there are many. Mmmmm.

Gunners fish bar

 

[The39thStep]

Posadas Fried Chicken