Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Pickman's model]

I'm still seeing Facebook posts about Boris Johnson's screw ups choc full of replies stating that it would have been far far far worse under Corbyn. Facts and what is right and good do not concern tory supporters. Pretty sure Johnson is aware of his base.

he certainly spends enough time on his fundament

 

[hash tag]

I'm still seeing Facebook posts about Boris Johnson's screw ups choc full of replies stating that it would have been far far far worse under Corbyn. Facts and what is right and good do not concern tory supporters. Pretty sure Johnson is aware of his base.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, for some. Others just knew this.

 

[Serge Forward]

I'm still seeing Facebook posts about Boris Johnson's screw ups choc full of replies stating that it would have been far far far worse under Corbyn. Facts and what is right and good do not concern tory supporters. Pretty sure Johnson is aware of his base.

It would have been worse! Corbyn's a MONSTER!!!!!111!!

 

[Funky_monks]

Would be nice to see the second coming of JC .

That's usually in March/April time...

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[8ball]

Ooh! That’s going to need a name..

 

[Raheem]

Ooh! That’s going to need a name..

Momentum?

 

[hitmouse]

If anyone's curious, here's the sauce (seems non-paywalled for me):

Jeremy Corbyn could establish own party as hopes fade of being reinstated as Labour MP

Former Labour leader is being urged to upgrade his charity and run under its banner at the next election

www.telegraph.co.uk

Jeremy Corbyn is considering establishing his own political party after privately accepting he will never be reinstated as a Labour MP, The Telegraph understands.
The former Labour leader has been urged by many in his inner circle, including his wife Laura Alvarez, to upgrade his charity into a political party, and run under its banner at the next election.
If the party is established, it could tempt the defection of Left-wing MPs who are disaffected with the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, and could take the name of the Peace and Justice Project, which Mr Corbyn established to coordinate his political activities after he was suspended from Labour.
Mr Corbyn sparked outrage in October 2020 after he responded to a formal inquiry into Labour’s unlawful acts of harassment and discrimination against Jewish people by saying allegations of anti-Semitism were “dramatically overstated for political reasons”.
Although he has since been reinstated as a Labour member, Sir Keir Starmer has said he will not readmit him to the parliamentary party unless he apologises publically for his comments.

Mr Corbyn has always refused to apologise, but has said he is “determined to eliminate all forms of racism”.
After the failure of some “back channel” negotiations on his return, the former leader has told friends he does not now believe he will have the whip reinstated before the next election, and will be forced to stand in Islington North as an independent candidate unless he establishes his own party.
Sources close to Sir Keir insist the “ball is in [Mr Corbyn’s] court”.
At the 2019 election, Mr Corbyn secured 63 per cent of the vote in the constituency, and those close to him believe he has enough of a “personal vote” to win the seat without Labour’s backing.
A close ally of the former leader did not deny the claims he was considering setting up a new party, but insisted there had been no “advanced discussions”, while a spokesman for the Peace and Justice project said there were as yet “no plans” for it to become a party.
Mr Corbyn’s spokesman said he “wants to see a Labour Party and government that is serious about shifting wealth and power from the few to the many”.
While the discussions are in their early stages, several figures in Mr Corbyn’s inner circle are said to be concerned that setting up a new party could remove enough MPs from Labour that it would dent Sir Keir Starmer’s prospects of winning the next election.
John McDonnell and Diane Abbott, two of the former leader’s closest allies, are said not to be interested in defecting.
The Telegraph has also been told Mr Corbyn plans to use the next 12 months to increase the activities of the Peace and Justice Project, with a tour of the UK to meet voters and campaign on his favourite political issues, such as worker’s rights, human rights and nuclear disarmament. He is also in talks to write a book.
Launching the charity in December last year, Mr Corbyn said it would focus on promoting the causes he has spent his parliamentary career campaigning for.
It is also seen by allies of Mr Corbyn as a means of keeping thousands of left-wing activists, who joined Labour under his leadership, engaged in politics.

The news comes as it was reported that Labour is planning to stand Mary Creagh, a former MP who blames Mr Corbyn for the loss of her seat in 2019, against him at the next election.
Insiders told the Mail on Sunday that the former Wakefield MP stands a good chance of beating her former boss in his own constituency.
Ms Creagh has previously said she believes she lost her seat to the Conservatives because of Mr Corbyn’s “leadership and failure to tackle anti-Semitism [and] bullying in our party”.

 

[8ball]

The UK does need a left-of-centre party that doesn’t treat the working class with contempt, but I can’t see this panning out.

 

[8ball]

Momentum?

Scientifically speaking, the same thing as Inertia.

 

[MickiQ]

I think he is highly likely to be re-admitted to the Labour Party assuming that he doesn't retire from politics by the next GE. I know a few on here view him as the Chosen One but I very much doubt he has any hope of winning Islington North at a GE either as an independent or leader of a new party. But then I don't think Starmer has the courage of his convictions and will bottle it rather than risk the possible humilation whether it's likely or not.

 

[Sue]

I think he is highly likely to be re-admitted to the Labour Party assuming that he doesn't retire from politics by the next GE. I know a few on here view him as the Chosen One but I very much doubt he has any hope of winning Islington North at a GE either as an independent or leader of a new party. But then I don't think Starmer has the courage of his convictions and will bottle it rather than risk the possible humilation whether it's likely or not.

I suspect (unlike most MPs who try this), he'd hold the seat. He genuinely has a very large personal vote.

 

[PR1Berske]

Ooh! That’s going to need a name..

Socialist Labour Party. Oh damn.

 

[Raheem]

I suspect (unlike most MPs who try this), he'd hold the seat. He genuinely has a very large personal vote.

Think it depends on his campaign and how it plays out in the media. In his favour, he would attract a lot of attention. On the other hand every bit of attention he gets will carry an obligatory imputation that he's a wrongun.

 

[Dom Traynor]

I suspect (unlike most MPs who try this), he'd hold the seat. He genuinely has a very large personal vote.

I think he could do a Ken Livingstone for Mayor style victory if he stood as an independent.

 

[Sue]

Think it depends on his campaign and how it plays out in the media. In his favour, he would attract a lot of attention. On the other hand every bit of attention he gets will carry an obligatory imputation that he's a wrongun.

He's been the MP there for nearly 40 years, has a well-oiled local machine and a lot of people who're not Labour supporters vote for him. (I know quite a lot of people in that constituency and many of them seem to have met him out and about through non-political stuff and think he's a decent man.)

 

[Raheem]

He's been the MP there for nearly 40 years, has a well-oiled local machine and a lot of people who're not Labour supporters vote for him. (I know quite a lot of people in that constituency and many of them seem to have met him out and about through non-political stuff and think he's a decent man.)

I'm sure that's true. But I don't think it totally tells you what would happen if he stood against Labour at a GE. Most people will be voting for a prime minister, and it would be taking on a job to convince them they should be voting to keep a bankbench MP instead.

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm sure that's true. But I don't think it totally tells you what would happen if he stood against Labour at a GE. Most people will be voting for a prime minister, and it would be taking on a job to convince them they should be voting to keep a bankbench MP instead.

I think most Labour supporters could vote for him with a clear conscious knowing that he’s not going to turn round and form a government with the Tories once elected. Nothing to lose here.

 

[Dogsauce]

plus I could see Tories voting for him just to fuck shit up a bit in the Labour Party.

 

[two sheds]

He'd vote according to conscience though so anything useful labour proposed

... ah yeh see the point

 

[bellaozzydog]

I think he is highly likely to be re-admitted to the Labour Party assuming that he doesn't retire from politics by the next GE. I know a few on here view him as the Chosen One but I very much doubt he has any hope of winning Islington North at a GE either as an independent or leader of a new party. But then I don't think Starmer has the courage of his convictions and will bottle it rather than risk the possible humilation whether it's likely or not.

63 % majority

I’d keep out the bookies if I was you.

The fact that the telegraph is giving it so much space is suspicious enough

 

[IC3D]

He's a very popular local MP I doubt he'll loose the seat, I doubt anyone in the ward who vote for him read the telegraph.

 

[andysays]

I'm sure that's true. But I don't think it totally tells you what would happen if he stood against Labour at a GE. Most people will be voting for a prime minister, and it would be taking on a job to convince them they should be voting to keep a bankbench MP instead.

They would also be voting to keep a long standing and well loved MP with a strong record of working for his constituents over the decades, which I don't think should be underestimated.

Overall though, the idea of a new Corbyn-led party is pretty much a non-starter, especially if close political and personal allies like John McDonnell and Diane Abbott aren't up for it.

I still think the most likely outcome is that Corbyn doesn't stand at the next GE and focuses more/entirely on his Peace and Justice Project.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm sure team Starmer will find a really great candidate to run against Corbyn, and not just an amorphous sack of blairite platitudes with a tie wrapped round it.

 

[agricola]

I'm sure team Starmer will find a really great candidate to run against Corbyn, and not just an amorphous sack of blairite platitudes with a tie wrapped round it.

Mary Creagh though

 

[MickiQ]

I suspect (unlike most MPs who try this), he'd hold the seat. He genuinely has a very large personal vote.

Well unless someone has done a survey asking the good folks of Islington North has to why they voted for Corbyn rather than any other candidate, I'm not sure how you can know that. I don't think there's a personal vote so much as personal popularity.
I'm sure he's popular with his voters but popular enough for more than HALF of them (which is what it will take) to vote for him rather than the official Labour candidate? At an LE possibly but much less likely at a GE.

He's been the MP there for nearly 40 years, has a well-oiled local machine and a lot of people who're not Labour supporters vote for him. (I know quite a lot of people in that constituency and many of them seem to have met him out and about through non-political stuff and think he's a decent man.)

Why is that a reason to vote for him? What percentage of people in Islington North (or any other constituency) ever speak or need to speak to their MP? I suspect it's not high enough for that to be a factor in how people vote.
Lots of other MPs (of all flavours) have put in the effort for their constituency, in what way is he special?

63 % majority

I’d keep out the bookies if I was you.

The fact that the telegraph is giving it so much space is suspicious enough

Voting for Corbyn at the 2019 election was an absolute no-brainer, the man was Leader of the Labour Party with plenty of reasons to believe he had a serious chance of being the next PM. That certainly won't be true at the next election whether he is an independent or once again the Labour candidate. It all comes down to what percentage of the Labour vote will switch to him or continue to vote Labour.
If he is re-adopted as the Labour candidate then I'm sure he will win comfortably, if not then I very much doubt it. What positives are there to voting for an independent backbencher other than as a protest?

 

[Sue]

Well unless someone has done a survey asking the good folks of Islington North has to why they voted for Corbyn rather than any other candidate, I'm not sure how you can know that. I don't think there's a personal vote so much as personal popularity.
I'm sure he's popular with his voters but popular enough for more than HALF of them (which is what it will take) to vote for him rather than the official Labour candidate? At an LE possibly but much less likely at a GE.

Why is that a reason to vote for him? What percentage of people in Islington North (or any other constituency) ever speak or need to speak to their MP? I suspect it's not high enough for that to be a factor in how people vote.
Lots of other MPs (of all flavours) have put in the effort for their constituency, in what way is he special?

Just my personal reflections on knowing the constituency (it's next door to mine) and a lot of people who live there but whatever.

 

[Idris2002]

I'm sure team Starmer will find a really great candidate to run against Corbyn, and not just an amorphous sack of blairite platitudes with a tie wrapped round it.

Don't forget the campaiging power of the ruthless Starmer machine.

 

[PR1Berske]

Do not underestimate how much organisation, money, foot soldiers, and general help you lose if you stand as an independent having previously stood for a mainstream party.

 

[billy_bob]

Well unless someone has done a survey asking the good folks of Islington North has to why they voted for Corbyn rather than any other candidate, I'm not sure how you can know that. I don't think there's a personal vote so much as personal popularity.
I'm sure he's popular with his voters but popular enough for more than HALF of them (which is what it will take) to vote for him rather than the official Labour candidate? At an LE possibly but much less likely at a GE.

Why is that a reason to vote for him? What percentage of people in Islington North (or any other constituency) ever speak or need to speak to their MP? I suspect it's not high enough for that to be a factor in how people vote.
Lots of other MPs (of all flavours) have put in the effort for their constituency, in what way is he special?

Voting for Corbyn at the 2019 election was an absolute no-brainer, the man was Leader of the Labour Party with plenty of reasons to believe he had a serious chance of being the next PM. That certainly won't be true at the next election whether he is an independent or once again the Labour candidate. It all comes down to what percentage of the Labour vote will switch to him or continue to vote Labour.
If he is re-adopted as the Labour candidate then I'm sure he will win comfortably, if not then I very much doubt it. What positives are there to voting for an independent backbencher other than as a protest?

You're right that strictly speaking only a representative survey of people who voted for him would tell you for sure, but anyone ignoring the circumstantial evidence that he has a large personal following is taking a major gamble. If you do want stats, whether his vote has held up in the face of Labour's changing fortunes nationally might be revealing.

Incumbency is nearly always an advantage unless you've been egregiously corrupt, lazy or otherwise terrible locally, and I doubt many people think Corbyn has.

The major parties often assume that only a few angry nutjobs will be fool enough to abandon the warm bosom of their party home and vote for a newly independent candidate. They've come unstuck that way before. Wouldn't surprise me much if they did here.