danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
One and three are the salient points.
Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Agreed.
Just thought that some actual polling would assist the discussion.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I don't think Corbyn's abysmal ratings among Jewish voters would have improved much with a bigger sample size, probably gone down tbh, although SNP/LD/etc would have improved their vote shares. It will take a long time for the damage to be repaired and complaining that Jews are part of the middle class (and what, many leftists and labour voters aren't?) or that they feel this way because of Israel isn't going to cut it
How British Jews vote and why they vote this way
blogs.timesofisrael.com
How British Jews vote and why they vote this way
From the blog of Daniel Staetsky at The Times of Israel
blogs.timesofisrael.com
' Because the Jewish vote is a class vote; not exclusively, but to a very significant extent. The association between the Jews and the left-wing politics in Britain is the thing that belongs to the past, when the majority of Jews in Britain – a lot of them new immigrants from Eastern and Central Europe and their children – fitted the definition of the working or the low-middle class. That changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Jews became different and so did their political preferences. The professional and the affluent, on the whole, are not known for their love of the Left, especially when it comes to economic solutions. “Since 1945…the formerly depressed eastern European migrants have moved as a whole into the upper-middle class and into the elites of most Western nations….The general rise of Western Jewry to elite status has resulted in a realignment of the allies and enemies of Jews, with the traditional ‘right’ and ‘left’ changing places in their regard for Jews and their interests” – such was the view of William Rubinstein, an eminent historian of Jews in the English speaking world, as articulated in his book ‘The Left, the Right and the Jews’. The voting patterns described above testify to this as a thousand witnesses, as the Hebrew saying goes. '
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I'm sure that there are Jews in all of the social class classifications, but what strikes me about Jewish Labour supporters is what an tiny demographic they really are.
Given that censal estimates put self-identifying Jews at around 300k in the UK, and under 10% of appear to support Labour, the fact that they then manage to factionalise so effectively is really quite impressive.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Michael Rosen has been asking various questions of how they collected such a sample. That one was an 'opt-in' version which is unusual for them.
It'd be interesting to compare with the methodologies for 2015 (22%) and 2010 (31)
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The Jewish Labour support, which must be a sub-set of the 30k UK Jews that polling suggests respond as Labour supporters, are very obviously factionally riven into the various Labour Jewish affiliate groups. Given the small numbers that must be involved, the political commitment does, to me, look quite impressive in a way.What do you mean sorry?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Could be, I'm not sure.
Suppose what I'm getting at is that for groups that have been so 'centre-stage' in such a politically charged process for the LP, the actual constituencies are really small in terms of numbers.
Even the JLM reckons on only about 2.5k members and there are some CLPs with ward memberships bigger than that.
So when considering the Survation poll, maybe 766 wasn't such a bad sample?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
the size is a perfectly reasonable number, albeit with a slightly larger margin of accuracy than their normal ones (about 4% with 95% confidence v3%). The question is over how those people were selected.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Indeed.
Certainly take Rosen's point on that.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I think the 4-6% figure is largely accurate regarding labour under corbyn, tbh, JVL and the like frankly aren't representative of any more than a tiny fraction of even secular Jews. Corbyn had a huge problem with Jewish voters, whether they were right to dislike him can be debated but he definitely did
It's the Tories' figure I am not sure about, although I'm sure their vote will be cut into next time by stuff like populist / nationalist dog whistles, Brexit (many/most Jews have family overseas, I think much more than average but not sure) and so many of their co-religionists dying from COVID-19
It's the Tories' figure I am not sure about, although I'm sure their vote will be cut into next time by stuff like populist / nationalist dog whistles, Brexit (many/most Jews have family overseas, I think much more than average but not sure) and so many of their co-religionists dying from COVID-19
andysays
Love and solidarity
This is the sort of thing I was getting at above.
I would suggest that "secular", "non engaged" Jews would be more likely to be left leaning than strictly observant and "engaged" Jews, so if anything the poll is likely to underestimate Jewish support for Labour.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, haven't checked out the methodology, tbh.
But I assume that Survation was going with (opted in) self-describing Jews. Not sure exactly how they'd accommodate non self-describing like yourself tbh. I suppose this is all about the limitations of such polling?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
No, if it were doubled that would still be a massive drop off even since MIliband, so arguing over whether it should be 6, 8 or even 12 misses most of the point.
Treacle Toes
Time
Have you read anything that confirms this? Are you basing your view on socio-economic meausres? I have read some things on median incomes/wealth by religion but an wondering what you are basing your opinions on.
...and of course this doesn't account for how many MC people of all backgrounds don't vote Tory.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
It doesn’t matter. What matters is that rummo is looking at this the wrong way. The Jewishness is not where the issue lies, it’s the class of the people being focused on.
Treacle Toes
Time
Hence my second point which you have cropped from your quote of my post..
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Well, that’s a separate point. rummo needs to be walked through this very slowly.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Although saying a bunch of antisemitic dogwhistle stuff and then justifying it with 'but I'm just criticising them for being Tory voters and middle class!" also isnt great (not that you're doing this danny la rouge )
quickly out the door would work better for me.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Exactly.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
This has happened btw - part of the problem getting a handle on this stuff is so difficult is because people come up with a whole lot of crap straight out the protocols but with a different word substituted and then say something like 'YEAH BUT NOT EVERYONE I'M TALKING ABOUT IS JEWISH YOU KNOW!'
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
This is true. But since the problem is wider that just rummo , it’s worth other people thinking it all through step by step.
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