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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

Wilf said:
Corbyn seems to have just about backed a 2nd ref according to reports (against a tory no deal, but not necessarily if it came to a gen election).
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Labour to back Remain in call for new EU referendum


“In a letter to members, the party leader said: "Whoever becomes the new prime minister should have the confidence to put their deal, or no deal, back to the people in a public vote.

"In those circumstances, I want to make it clear that Labour would campaign for Remain against either no deal or a Tory deal that does not protect the economy and jobs."”

Does he include himself in that? (Bolded).
 
danny la rouge said:
Labour to back Remain in call for new EU referendum


“In a letter to members, the party leader said: "Whoever becomes the new prime minister should have the confidence to put their deal, or no deal, back to the people in a public vote.

"In those circumstances, I want to make it clear that Labour would campaign for Remain against either no deal or a Tory deal that does not protect the economy and jobs."”

Does he include himself in that? (Bolded).
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Don't know and there even seems to be some ambiguity as to whether he/Lab would simply back remain in a ref that came about - as opposed to actually calling for one. For example, the Guardian's wording:

Jeremy Corbyn has sought to draw a line under Labour’s Brexit travails by announcing a “settled” policy of backing remain in any referendum called on a Conservative deal.
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No doubt journos will unpick the words over the next few hours and the implication of supporting remain in a ref indicates actually supporting that there should be a ref. Same time, even when Corbyn finally falls off the fence he still lands in a muddy patch.
 
There's little to no prospect in the immediate future of Corbyn being able to call another referendum himself. Even his urging the new PM to call one is essentially pointless, except perhaps as an attempt to placate those of his MPs and members who back Remain, but with all the problems of alienating Leave voters already discussed.

Corbyn and Labour's only chance seems to be to hope that the new PM fucks things completely and they can somehow benefit in the GE which may follow, and that's a pretty forlorn hope TBH.
 
Smokeandsteam said:
There is so much wrong with this, but I will limit my reply to one point.

Go and look at France to see where you demand we go. Look at the left polling less than 10%. Look at the re-branded fascists fighting it out with a shabby neo-liberal for power. Look at the streets burning. Look at the dangerous forces on the rise among the peripheral.

This is directly where your politics of writing off for good 'a section of the working class' (your crude code for white poor people living in areas ravaged by capitalism). The 'diverse working class' (your crude code for people living mainly in cities with higher levels of social and cultural capital) as you put it will vote Labour, Green, Liberal, SNP, Plaid or whoever best represents their interests at any given point in time. They will not support genuinely re-distributive politics unless they think it preserves or restores their position. Their support is always contingent.
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I think you should keep your crude codes to yourself frankly. You are demonstrating aptly who is writing off who. There are plenty of diverse wc people living on the edge, with little social support or capital who have no wish for Brexit. You need to reconsider your narrative of the Brexit demographics. There are also plenty of people who are against Brexit who genuinely want to redistribute.

You make the mistake of assuming as delivering Brexit is important to you it is important enough to provoke a descent towards rebranded facism. France has not required a frustrated Brexit to deliver its election results. They reflect its own history and conditions. The BP is not going to become the next FN.

Brexit is a source of frustration for many, but it offers nothing of itself. It will blow out eventually even if killed off. Even in Labour’s heartlands those massively angry about Brexit are outnumbered by those against or who barely care. The anger at social conditions will persist and it’s up to Labour to make the passionate case for redistribution in or out. Offering a Brexit that they don’t really believe in appears to solve nothing.
 
Mr Moose said:
You make the mistake of assuming as delivering Brexit is important to you it is important enough to provoke a descent towards rebranded facism. France has not required a frustrated Brexit to deliver its election results. They reflect its own history and conditions. The BP is not going to become the next FN.
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We've already had the two most electorally successful hard right parties in UK history in the last ~20 years. The BP has already had some considerable success despite being only months old. It won't get many, if any, seats at Westminster and it might collapse as the BNP/UKIP have. But the voters who have voted for national populist parties won't disappear and all the evidence suggests that the number of voters moving towards national populism is growing.

Mr Moose said:
Even in Labour’s heartlands those massively angry about Brexit are outnumbered by those against or who barely care.
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What evidence is this claim made on? In many of these heartlands you are looking 60+% of those that voted wanting to leave the EU. Ashfield and Bolsover saw the election of eurosceptic independents because voters defected from the LP.
 
redsquirrel said:
We've already had the two most electorally successful hard right parties in UK history in the last ~20 years. The BP has already had some considerable success despite being only months old. It won't get many, if any, seats at Westminster and it might collapse as the BNP/UKIP have. But the voters who have voted for national populist parties won't disappear and all the evidence suggests that the number of voters moving towards national populism is growing.

What evidence is this claim made on? In many of these heartlands you are looking 60+% of those that voted wanting to leave the EU. Ashfield and Bolsover saw the election of eurosceptic independents because voters defected from the LP.
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60% (of the 70% who voted) may have voted to leave, but those who are massively angry or angry enough to vote BP are nowhere near a majority in those areas. Who turns out to vote and how they vote at a GE is up for grabs. The voters there are not all massive nationalists and certainly not natural Tories. Labour can still win there, the messages it had success with in 2017 are still relevant.

Brexit could be dying a death by then or completed, the results from other low turnout elections are not entirely predictive.
 
That doesn't address the points that either myself or Smokeandsteam have raised.

No one is arguing that a national populist party is going to win many (any) seats in a GE, but numerous studies have shown that massive majorities of people reject ethnic nationalism there are strong majorities for all kinds of civic or cultural nationalistic positions. The national populist vote is a minority but it is both growing and hardening and even having political effects.
 
An aside: even as the tories risk mini splits and MP resignations with a no deal brexit, there's a scenario where Corbyn only has another 12 months as leader. Essentially, Johnson wins, manages to get some kind of brexit and calls an election in the Spring. For Corbyn to remain as leader, Labour would have to at least stop the Tories getting a working majority. Hard to predict anything at the moment, but I'm just not sure what message Labour would bring to a Gen Election. If they did lose and he resigns, there'd be a question for the Labour left and those who rejoined: so, what did that achieve? I don't mean that argumentatively, just a genuine question. What has changed, what alliances were built, how was working class politics advanced?
 
ruffneck23 said:
Corbyn says Labour will back Remain in new Brexit referendum amid Tory anger over bid to block no-deal - follow live
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He's just getting dragged and dragged and dragged. It's depressing to see.

I think this was the plan ever since the ridiculous conference motion. It passed, because it prioritised a general election over a 2nd vote. Then as soon as the VoNC failed, after the ChUK's, Greens, SNP and Liberals demanded he call it, every Labour Remainer has declared an election impossible and demanded a second referendum.

They probably won't even get it. It's playing straight into the Tories hands.
 
Fez909 said:
Did they?

The official line was remain, Corbyn came out for remain (softly), and the vast majority of MPs campaigned for remain.
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In the 2017 GE labour campaigned to leave and to ‘respect the result’. This remained their position until last night. Try to keep up eh?

ETA oh, and Jeremy demanded article 50 be triggered within hours of the referendum.

Picture getting clearer now ya tube?
 
Smokeandsteam said:
In the 2017 GE labour campaigned to leave and to ‘respect the result’. This remained their position until last night. Try to keep up eh?

ETA oh, and Jeremy demanded article 50 be triggered within hours of the referendum.

Picture getting clearer now ya tube?
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Wow , you’re a condescending fuck aren’t you ?
 
ruffneck23 said:
Wow , you’re a condescending fuck aren’t you ?
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What’s it got to do with you pal?

He took a post where I was clearly talking about the 2017 GE and the next one and pretended I was talking about labour’s dynamic ‘remain’ stance during the referendum. Let’s debate but let’s stop the game playing
 
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Smokeandsteam said:
What’s it got to do with you pal?

He took a post where I was clearly talking about the 2017 GE and the next one and pretended I was talking about labour’s dynamic ‘remain’ stance during the referendum. Let’s debate but let’s stop the game playing
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Well for starters you’re not my pal, this is an open forum so I’d guess everything has to do with anyone observing , finally if you’re trying to have a decent debate it’s probably best not to be a cunt about it. :—)
 
Ashfield (70% leave vote) was a Labour heartland it's now one of their most marginal seats. The LP lost 20 council seats at this years LE. Now it is perfectly possible that Labour may hold it next time around. Especially if both the BP and Tories compete - you could have the same type of result as in the Peterborough by-election. But to claim that there aren't large number of people that are angry at the LP, that there is not a voter base that may be receptive to the national populist message of the BP is total crap.
File:AshfieldGraph.svg - Wikipedia

This is one seat but there are others that are similar, the Labour majority in Bolsover has been cut from the traditional ~20,000+ it once was to just over 5,000. I'd actually be surprised if it fell (if it did fall Labour would most likely be having a terrible night) but again there is a growing national populist voter base here.
 
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SpackleFrog said:
He's just getting dragged and dragged and dragged. It's depressing to see.

I think this was the plan ever since the ridiculous conference motion. It passed, because it prioritised a general election over a 2nd vote. Then as soon as the VoNC failed, after the ChUK's, Greens, SNP and Liberals demanded he call it, every Labour Remainer has declared an election impossible and demanded a second referendum.

They probably won't even get it. It's playing straight into the Tories hands.
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Unfortunately I agree , I thought he was trying to be shrewd and let the Tories destroy themselves which I think is entirely possible, but with brexit he has left it too late and that in the end will destroy labour too , and I really hate to think it , I had such hopes for him :(
 
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ruffneck23 said:
Well for starters you’re not my pal, this is an open forum so I’d guess everything has to do with anyone observing , finally if you’re trying to have a decent debate it’s probably best not to be a cunt about it. :—)
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Yup, I’m definitely no pal of yours pal.

As for ‘decent debate’ a starting point is to engage with what people write rather than attempts to twist what they’ve said as was the case with the post I reacted to and you waded into
 
Smokeandsteam said:
In the 2017 GE labour campaigned to leave and to ‘respect the result’. This remained their position until last night. Try to keep up eh?

ETA oh, and Jeremy demanded article 50 be triggered within hours of the referendum.

Picture getting clearer now ya tube?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I'd call promising to respect the vote "campaigning for leave" but fair play on your other points, ya 'tube'.
 
The result of the referendum was ‘leave’. Labour called for it to be enacted immediately and campaigned to respect the result in the GE. It remained its policy until yesterday.

I’m struggling to understand why you are struggling
 
The 2017 manifesto did clearly and strongly reject leaving on a No Deal basis as well. So it is still in keeping with the long-standing policy to say remain if that is the only alternative.

But not to say you'd definitely recommend a vote for your own, negotiated and agreed, version of Brexit is just barking.
 
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