Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[agricola]

Yes, but my point was that labour voters who left didn’t come back. The hard evidence is 88% of them didn’t. If there is other evidence to contradict the evidence I’ve shared I’d be happy to see it

Not really; the figures you posted were all former UKIP voters from 2015, not just former Labour voters who voted UKIP in 2015.

Without knowing what % of UKIP's 2015 vote was ex-Labour its difficult to say how many of them came back in 2017; indeed, it may well be that the split of ex-2015 UKIP voters in 2017 is a fairly accurate picture of where the UKIP vote in 2015 actually came from (in which case, 2017 may have seen most of the ex-Labour vote come back, just as most of the ex-Tory vote went there).

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Not really; the figures you posted were all former UKIP voters from 2015, not just former Labour voters who voted UKIP in 2015.

Without knowing what % of UKIP's 2015 vote was ex-Labour its difficult to say how many of them came back in 2017; indeed, it may well be that the split of ex-2015 UKIP voters in 2017 is a fairly accurate picture of where the UKIP vote in 2015 actually came from (in which case, 2017 may have seen most of the ex-Labour vote come back, just as most of the ex-Tory vote went there).

That is, of course, possible. That’s why I’m asking if there is any other research that indicates that this was the case. But a critical point is this: labour lost millions of votes from 2006-2015. These votes were in the heartlands and the north, wales and Midlands specifically (plus of course Scotland but that’s a different story). The evidence by constituency is that they gained votes in 2017 but disproportionately outside of most of their headlands (bar the cities) and even lost further votes in some working class towns and coastal areas that were leave seats. I’d suggest these seats had a lot of ex-labour UKIP types. Put simply, there is no evidence that suggests there were significant numbers of ex-labour UKIP voters returning to labour that I have seen. The only data we have is 12% of UKIP voters in 2015 switched to labour

 

[agricola]

That is, of course, possible. That’s why I’m asking if there is any other research that indicates that this was the case. But a critical point is this: labour lost millions of votes from 2006-2015. These votes were in the heartlands and the north, wales and Midlands specifically (plus of course Scotland but that’s a different story). The evidence by constituency is that they gained votes in 2017 but disproportionately outside of most of their headlands (bar the cities) and even lost further votes in some working class towns and coastal areas that were leave seats. I’d suggest these seats had a lot of ex-labour UKIP types. Put simply, there is no evidence that suggests there were significant numbers of ex-labour UKIP voters returning to labour that I have seen. The only data we have is 12% of UKIP voters in 2015 switched to labour

If that is the argument though, you need to include the did not votes (in 2015) to the mix. Labour got 35% (of the DNV 2015 / Remain 2016) and 12% (of DNV 2015 / Leave 2016) of those.

 

[Mr Moose]

Where? This is a straight up lie.
Unlike you I can separate my personal political desires from the political objectives of the LP. FFS I'm opposed to the LP.

This is the same fucking nonsense that creates support for the UK immigration policies from criticism of the EUs immigration policies, or that creates racism from the acknowledgement that capital is using migration.

Pointing out that most marginal seats (key to either party becoming a government - especially a majority government) tend to have majorities that voted for leave, and thus that moving to a hardcore remain position both puts Lab-Con marginals in danger and makes it harder to win key Con-Lab marginals is not advocating that "the result of the referendum be honoured".

What a wriggle. Say what you mean then. If you don’t support Brexit say so. If you do, say that. Don’t give yourself fucking graces that you and only you come to some impartial opinion, freely offered without agenda for the benefit of a Party you despise.

You say ‘trust the working class’, which means, in this narrow view of what the working class is, that Brexit should be delivered. You therefore support Brexit. That’s just how you come to it, like we all come to our opinions through various routes through various tickets we hold.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Fuck me you're a tedious one. Can you really not just read what he's actually posted?

 

[redsquirrel]

What a wriggle. Say what you mean then. If you don’t support Brexit say so. If you do, say that. Don’t give yourself fucking graces that you and only you come to some impartial opinion, freely offered without agenda for the benefit of a Party you despise.

You say ‘trust the working class’, which means, in this narrow view of what the working class is, that Brexit should be delivered. You therefore support Brexit. That’s just how you come to it, like we all come to our opinions through various routes through various tickets we hold.

I'm not sure whether your problem is your comprehension, your understanding or both but this is yet more twaddle.

Do I personally want to see the UK leave the EU - yes. I'm a communist and believe the UK leaving the EU damages capital, the EU and the UK state. Does that mean I define the working class as those that voted to leave the EU, absolutely not.

I have never done so, in fact I have repeatedly emphasised that the working class is full of contradictions and oppositions. I have repeatedly stressed that their are people that I consider comrades that voted remain, because (again as I have said numerous times) the real divide is not between those that voted leave and those that voted remain but between those that recognise that the working class itself is the only agent really capable of bringing about gains and those that see some body - be that the LP, the state, the EU, the Bolsheviks, the CNT or anybody else - as the agent to protect and/or deliver gains for the working class.

----

With regard to the LP I have enough self-awareness to recognise that my political aims and objectives differ from the political objectives of the LP, and in fact are often in opposition to the LP. That does not mean I can't also see that an LP going fully behind remain in the way that the liberal left want has both electoral, and more importantly, political ramifications.

Electorally the position is simple - yes the LP might lose more votes to the LDs/Grns/etc but those votes are in seats that they can afford to lose votes in, for example there are only two Lab->LD marginals in the entire country (and Sheffield Hallam was probably gone ages ago anyway). In contrast, while those the voted leave make up a smaller proportion of Labour's vote, they are distributed such that they are crucial in many of the key marginals that Labour needs to keep/win to form a (majority) government (and I've not see you or anyone else contest, or even address this issue).
Now, I am not arguing that going full remain will not mean a Labour government, in fact if I had to guess the result of a GE in the next few months I predict a Labour (minority) government. But when 15 of the top 10 Lab->Con and Con->Lab marginals are places where there was a majority for leave (in some cases a very large majority) it is head in the fucking sand bullshit to not recognise that pushing a pro-EU line has electoral dangers.

Politically, the ramifications are even more important. The LP has always been a coalition of different interests, and the tensions between those that have an interest (i.e. social or class) based politics and those that have a views (i.e. progressive) based politics are not new. Over the last 30+ years the balance in the LP has moved towards the progressive politics side, and as it has done so the support for the LP in it's old heartlands has dropped.
Despite this some remnants of this class based politics still exist, hence why even in 2010 it was able to count on the bedrock of its support and maintain a 29% vote share and 258 seats (in comparison parties that have embraced the progressive route, e.g. the PS and SDP, are scraping 20% vote shares or less). To move to a pro-EU position is to push the LP even further down the path of progressive politics. And while I will shed few tears over the LP, I recognise that the removal of class based politics from the LP will open up even more space for national populism to grow.

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm not sure whether your problem is your comprehension, your understanding or both but this is yet more twaddle.

Do I personally want to see the UK leave the EU - yes. I'm a communist and believe the UK leaving the EU damages capital, the EU and the UK state. Does that mean I define the working class as those that voted to leave the EU, absolutely not.

I have never done so, in fact I have repeatedly emphasised that the working class is full of contradictions and oppositions. I have repeatedly stressed that their are people that I consider comrades that voted remain, because (again as I have said numerous times) the real divide is not between those that voted leave and those that voted remain but between those that recognise that the working class itself is the only agent really capable of bringing about gains and those that see some body - be that the LP, the state, the EU, the Bolsheviks, the CNT or anybody else - as the agent to protect and/or deliver gains for the working class.

----

With regard to the LP I have enough self-awareness to recognise that my political aims and objectives differ from the political objectives of the LP, and in fact are often in opposition to the LP. That does not mean I can't also see that an LP going fully behind remain in the way that the liberal left want has both electoral, and more importantly, political ramifications.

Electorally the position is simple - yes the LP might lose more votes to the LDs/Grns/etc but those votes are in seats that they can afford to lose votes in, for example there are only two Lab->LD marginals in the entire country (and Sheffield Hallam was probably gone ages ago anyway). In contrast, while those the voted leave make up a smaller proportion of Labour's vote, they are distributed such that they are crucial in many of the key marginals that Labour needs to keep/win to form a (majority) government (and I've not see you or anyone else contest, or even address this issue).
Now, I am not arguing that going full remain will not mean a Labour government, in fact if I had to guess the result of a GE in the next few months I predict a Labour (minority) government. But when 15 of the top 10 Lab->Con and Con->Lab marginals are places where there was a majority for leave (in some cases a very large majority) it is head in the fucking sand bullshit to not recognise that pushing a pro-EU line has electoral dangers.

Politically, the ramifications are even more important. The LP has always been a coalition of different interests, and the tensions between those that have an interest (i.e. social or class) based politics and those that have a views (i.e. progressive) based politics are not new. Over the last 30+ years the balance in the LP has moved towards the progressive politics side, and as it has done so the support for the LP in it's old heartlands has dropped.
Despite this some remnants of this class based politics still exist, hence why even in 2010 it was able to count on the bedrock of its support and maintain a 29% vote share and 258 seats (in comparison parties that have embraced the progressive route, e.g. the PS and SDP, are scraping 20% vote shares or less). To move to a pro-EU position is to push the LP even further down the path of progressive politics. And while I will shed few tears over the LP, I recognise that the removal of class based politics from the LP will open up even more space for national populism to grow.

A good post and very clear.

I have a problem with the determinism of your position sometimes. A few months ago Labour’s ambiguity seemed like a shoo-in. Now it’s an albatross. Politics is febrile to say the least. Very hard to say A will certainly lead to B.

I have been happy for a compromise to be found. I cannot see how, in the present time, the UK can simply carry on in the EU without being in continual political crisis. However I cannot now see how Labour can deliver it.

The failure to deliver Brexit has polarised with the effect that no-deal is threatened by the Tory Leadership candidates. This has had an equal opposite reaction for Remainers that Brexit on these terms must be ruled out. Remain has gathered ground. A lot of it.

Labour could have supported the compromise that was May’s deal. But of course it can’t enable a Tory Brexit under any circumstances other than through a humiliating Tory climbdown to Labour’s terms. But it also can’t deliver Brexit itself, because its members don’t really believe in compromise and neither do a lot of its voters. You can’t risk a spectacular collapse of those voters whatever the state of those seats.

I don’t believe it should be full on Remain at this point. But even if it has to I wouldn’t bet against many Labour voters, who voted Leave still voting Labour, their scepticism about Johnson and Trump and the point of Brexit at all coming to the fore.

 

[Proper Tidy]

My position hasn't changed since 2016 - a leave vote would do the most damage to them (capital, the ruling class, business, political class, whatever). Fully understand those who backed remain because, on balance, they considered that wasn't a price worth paying for damage it could do to others. Almost abstained for that reason before going out to vote about 9pm. No hopes of lexit, I just wanted to fuck shit up. Still understand if people think the latter outweighs the former. But the former is still true.

 

[redsquirrel]

I have a problem with the determinism of your position sometimes.

What determinism? You whole post illustrates my point, the politics in it is "Remain" vs "Leave", Labour vs Tory. The working class are not present.

Remain has gathered ground. A lot of it.

Has it? in what way? Not in the general populace it hasn't. Polling shows that a large number of people think they were right to want to leave the EU and would still vote to leave the EU, there's been some swing towards support for remaining in the EU (mostly from people who did not vote in the referendum coming out for remaining) but there remains considerable support for leaving the EU. Now remain has gathered considerable ground in the institutions of capital, like the LP, where now not even a remain and reform position is enough, it is outright pro-EUism.

I don’t believe it should be full on Remain at this point.

Then what do you think this current position is? Have you actually read the report or killer b's posts? How could it be more in favour of remaining in the EU bar committing them to revoking A50 outright?

But even if it has to I wouldn’t bet against many Labour voters, who voted Leave still voting Labour, their scepticism about Johnson and Trump and the point of Brexit at all coming to the fore.

This is the head in sand nonsense I talked about. It ignores the evidence of the LEs, it ignores the evidence of past results.

Of course many, indeed most, long term Labour voters that support leave will vote Labour again. But some won't, some will abstain, some may decide to vote for a different party and there doesn't need to be that many that don't vote Labour for some seats to fall. Moreover, if Labour want to get a majority, they probably need to gain voters in some of those Tory held marginals, voters that may have voted Leave in 2016.

 

[killer b]

Has it? in what way?

In the aftermath of the referendum, there was a large majority in the polls for honouring the referendum result, even among people who voted remain. This is no longer the case, so in that sense remain has 'made up ground'.

 

[Mr Moose]

It has also made up ground in the militancy of its position. 40% backed Labour in 2017 with its compromise, but nevertheless Leave position. That seems quite beyond it now with that same position (which it has been forced to modify).

 

[redsquirrel]

In the aftermath of the referendum, there was a large majority in the polls for honouring the referendum result, even among people who voted remain. This is no longer the case, so in that sense remain has 'made up ground'.

Yes, fair point. But that's sort of return to the status quo ante.

 

[killer b]

Yes, fair point. But that's sort of return to the status quo ante.

perhaps, although the militancy of the partisan positions Mr Moose mentions does feel different.

 

[Mr Moose]

What determinism? You whole post illustrates my point, the politics in it is "Remain" vs "Leave", Labour vs Tory. The working class are not present.

Has it? in what way? Not in the general populace it hasn't. Polling shows that a large number of people think they were right to want to leave the EU and would still vote to leave the EU, there's been some swing towards support for remaining in the EU (mostly from people who did not vote in the referendum coming out for remaining) but there remains considerable support for leaving the EU. Now remain has gathered considerable ground in the institutions of capital, like the LP, where now not even a remain and reform position is enough, it is outright pro-EUism.

Then what do you think this current position is? Have you actually read the report or killer b's posts? How could it be more in favour of remaining in the EU bar committing them to revoking A50 outright?

This is the head in sand nonsense I talked about. It ignores the evidence of the LEs, it ignores the evidence of past results.

Of course many, indeed most, long term Labour voters that support leave will vote Labour again. But some won't, some will abstain, some may decide to vote for a different party and there doesn't need to be that many that don't vote Labour for some seats to fall. Moreover, if Labour want to get a majority, they probably need to gain voters in some of those Tory held marginals, voters that may have voted Leave in 2016.

I wrote, ‘I don’t believe it should’ which is me, not the Labour Party, but nevertheless Labour has not eliminated the possibility that it could negotiate a Brexit deal. Fanciful and it probably couldn’t even back its own deal, but it is still there.

 

[SpackleFrog]

A few months ago Labour’s ambiguity seemed like a shoo-in. Now it’s an albatross.

Sorry to butt in but I'm sure I said extensively at the time that the ambiguity strategy was very very bad.

 

[Mr Moose]

Sorry to butt in but I'm sure I said extensively at the time that the ambiguity strategy was very very bad.

Well done you.

 

[treelover]

Still reasonably popualar with some audiences.

Durham Miners Gala

even the families out for the day on the bank are listening!

 

[treelover]

Still reasonably popualar with some audiences.

Durham Miners Gala

even the families out for the day on the bank are listening!

Gala looks great.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

 

[butchersapron]

Does that also not that say under a 1/3 of the members are w/c then?

 

[killer b]

Does that also not that say under a 1/3 of the members are w/c then?

I don't think you can extrapolate that from this data - it's weighted to the general population, not the make up of the Labour Party.

 

[killer b]

(that said, I wouldn't be surprised if it is 1/3)

 

[butchersapron]

I don't think you can extrapolate that from this data - it's weighted to the general population, not the make up of the Labour Party.

Can't really see a poll which counts under a 1/3 of the population as w/c is going to be any sort of rabbit from the hat for those who now be boosting this.

But anyway on here we have 2/3 of the under a 1/3 membership thinking Corbyn is doing well or fairly well.

 

[killer b]

Can't really see a poll which counts under a 1/3 of the population as w/c is going to be any sort of rabbit from the hat for those who now be boosting this.

I guess that's true, but I'm not sure where YouGov would get a breakdown of the class of Labour members to weigh their polling? You can be sure Labour won't be handing that out

 

[killer b]

(I don't think that poll says anything very interesting in any direction either fwiw)

 

[oryx]

I guess that's true, but I'm not sure where YouGov would get a breakdown of the class of Labour members to weigh their polling? You can be sure Labour won't be handing that out

I think they would get it from the questions asked in the poll about income and the type of job of the 'main income earner'. A crude measure (AB, C1, C2, DE) which doesn't take into account social capital, inherited wealth etc. etc. but usual in market research.

 

[killer b]

I think they would get it from the questions asked in the poll about income and the type of job of the 'main income earner'. A crude measure (AB, C1, C2, DE) which doesn't take into account social capital, inherited wealth etc. etc. but usual in market research.

I know how that works, but I don't think you could then use that information to say '30% of the Labour membership is C2DE' in a way which doesn't have a substantial margin of error.

 

[Wilf]

In as much as it does anything, that table confirms Labour's dilemma(s) as to its positioning around brexit.

 

[Supine]

In as much as it does anything, that table confirms Labour's dilemma(s) as to its positioning around brexit.

1172 voted remain. 151 voted leave. Clearly the poll shows it should be a remain party

 

[butchersapron]

1172 voted remain. 151 voted leave. Clearly the poll shows it should be a remain party

No need to worry about voters.