Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[ska invita]

I emigrated, I’ve no skin in the game any more.

Doesn't matter where you live wether you give support to a party or not, no? Political platforms are international. All humans have skin

 

[ska invita]

Just looking back at where Lab/Con polling fortunes stood when Corbyn assumed the Leadership:
Labour were on 30.4%
& the vermin on 39.0%

...and where they are now:
Labour are on 31.1%
& the vermin on 25.2%

Discuss.
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Re Discuss: any collapse in a Tory vote is massively skewed by the brexit process, which will one day be at least somewhat 'done'. Previous recent Labour leads over Tories massively helped by a large Ukip vote which went back to the Tories post referendum but pre-shitshow.

Possible the Labour vote will bounce back some too but hard to predict a Labour lead at that point

 

[cantsin]

sorry, I forgot, I am a former member now.

much missed am sure

 

[brogdale]

Can't find this tweet at all on Ian Warren's timeline.
Also couldn't find that statistic floating about anywhere else.
Ian Warren (@election_data) on Twitter

Looks like he's put up some even more fine-grained analysis now:



e2a tweet here

 

[redsquirrel]

Looks like he's put up some even more fine-grained analysis now:

e2a tweet here

Hmmm, interesting stuff. But I can't see how he has put this data together. And considering we know that people misremember their past voting behaviour I think some of the uncertainties on those values need to be pretty large.

 

[newbie]

so... of voters who moved away from Labour in the first 5 years post 2005, Leavers were 53%, and in the next 5 years were 59% but over the combined 10 years they contrived to be 61%? How does that work?

 

[brogdale]

so... of voters who moved away from Labour in the first 5 years post 2005, Leavers were 53%, and in the next 5 years were 59% but over the combined 10 years they contrived to be 61%? How does that work?

It doesn't; there's something adrift with that 3rd row, clearly.
Don't think I'll be posting any more from this chap until he's clearer about his sources.

 

[killer b]

It doesn't; there's something adrift with that 3rd row, clearly.
Don't think I'll be posting any more from this chap until he's clearer about his sources.

It's a typo if you compare that line with the lower charts - it should be 2015 - 2017

 

[killer b]

(Ian Warren is a trustworthy source fwiw. He's good on this.)

 

[newbie]

It doesn't; there's something adrift with that 3rd row, clearly.
Don't think I'll be posting any more from this chap until he's clearer about his sources.

Scanning the twitter thread (not something I do often) people seem to take him seriously, but he hasn't come back on requests for sources or absolute numbers.

 

[redsquirrel]

It's worth bearing in mind that looking at 2015 UKIP -> 2017 Con voters (a much shorter timeframe than above), you have Ashcroft predicating 57% while YouGov predict 45%. That's not to imply Warren is untrustworthy or that his intention is good but it does indicate the sort of uncertainties that need to considered here.

 

[brogdale]

Yep, but Warren's point is that when the inevitable 'No-Deal' vrs Bremain denouement arrives...Corbyn's pivot to remain will play well with his loyal 'core' and newer voters. He'll obviously struggle to regain any of those voters who've already deserted Labour, but the gamble will (presumably) be how much of the remainiac LimpDemery he can hoover up.

I suppose the old '2 horse race' card will be played big with Johnson's nut-job Brextemism set against Corbyn's saviour of the nation mode.

 

[Ted Striker]

If you wait by the allotment long enough, the bodies of your enemies will, erm, float by.

 

[ruffneck23]

Corbyn 2 - Tories 0

 

[treelover]

Corbynism is now in crisis: the only way forward is to oppose Brexit

Corbynism is now in crisis: the only way forward is to oppose Brexit | Paul Mason

Mason calling for sacking of Milne, Karie Murphy, and other advisers, for a second Ref and support 'remain and reform', it is a confused article in many ways, he is basically saying that Labour should finally make a decision to re-orient to what he sees as the new coalition, university, professionals, the urban middle class, etc, and away from the old de-industrialised areas, but he then says they can win back the latter with what seem authoritarian measures, on anti-social behaviour, crime , drugs, keeping Trident, which may alienate some of the former.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

also on the guardian website today

This isn't about Brexit. Backing remain now would wreck Labour | Gloria De Piero

 

[DotCommunist]

Mason's all over the shop.

 

[treelover]

I agree, met him at The World Transformed a few years ago, he was quite unpleasant and tbh, a bit hyper.

 

[greenfield]

That sounds like he was on the marching powder

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Mason’s argument is precisely the argument and approach adopted by the French left. Abandon the deindustrialised towns and cities - too difficult, too racist, too many problems, too much despair, too many long memories of being let down by those who professed to lead them. They’ve got nowhere else to go politically anyway. Instead focus on the students, on ethnic minorities, on the progressive middle class, on those working in the knowledge economy in the cities. A new coalition to beat the right. Socialism without the working class.

How did that pan out?

Last night the fascist front national narrowly beat the discredited neo-liberal Macron’s party. The socialists got 8%.

Mason needs to be put in a dark room for a long long life down

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Mason's all over the shop.

He’s much worse than that. He’s dangerous.

 

[killer b]

Does anyone take him seriously now? He's been a laughing stock for a couple of years at least.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Does anyone take him seriously now? He's been a laughing stock for a couple of years at least.

Well the Guardian obviously do because they published it.

Clearly, also, he’s seen as a useful idiot by right wing MPs intent on using Remain and Labour’s position as a Trojan horse against Corbyn and McDonnell.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I can't hold a mental image of Mason and Duncan Bannatyne at the same time, like Dickie Davies and Des Lyman, or Michaels Aspel and Parkinson.

 

[belboid]

Does anyone take him seriously now? He's been a laughing stock for a couple of years at least.

Only on here. His books still sell well, as do his speaking tours. Totally appealing to the AEIP lot

 

[Duncan2]

also on the guardian website today

This isn't about Brexit. Backing remain now would wreck Labour | Gloria De Piero

She's right but I do wish people wouldn't say wreaked havoc-its wrought.

 

[treelover]

I wonder what is going to happen in Peterborough?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Mason’s argument is precisely the argument and approach adopted by the French left. Abandon the deindustrialised towns and cities - too difficult, too racist, too many problems, too much despair, too many long memories of being let down by those who professed to lead them. They’ve got nowhere else to go politically anyway. Instead focus on the students, on ethnic minorities, on the progressive middle class, on those working in the knowledge economy in the cities. A new coalition to beat the right. Socialism without the working class.

How did that pan out?

Last night the fascist front national narrowly beat the discredited neo-liberal Macron’s party. The socialists got 8%.

Mason needs to be out in a dark room for a long long life down

It's just Labour policy 1997-2015 again.

 

[redsquirrel]

Totally appealing to the AEIP lot

AEIP?

 

[treelover]

Another Europe is Possible, Chessum and co.