DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Robinson hasn't been funny since he played Nottingham in Maid Marian and her Merry Men. No loss
Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
He was funny haha but for nigh on 30 years has been funny peculiar
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
3 1/2 years on and Labour are no closer to achieving a parliamentary majority if there were to be an election tomorrow.Just look ing back at where Lab/Con polling fortunes stood when Corbyn assumed the Leadership:
Labour were on 30.4%
& the vermin on 39.0%
Now:
Labour are on 31.1%
& the vermin on 25.2%
Discuss.
I'm not sure the collapse in the Tory vote is thanks to Jeremy.
We are still no closer to resolution of the antisemitism issue.
The party is increasingly hostile to diversity of opinion and abusive towards those with a Blairite tendency, and Labour lost several MPs to a splitter party.
If the LibDems got their shit together I think Jeremy would be in a precarious position.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
"We"?
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
sorry, I forgot, I am a former member now.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Do you still vote Lab?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Boo fucking hoo
Yeah, after getting the biggest jump in popular vote for ages + huge support from membership base Corbyn's would be in definite trouble.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Absolute fucking rot. brogdale posted the plot of the polls just up above so it is not like you even have to look far to check this out.
There was a little bounce after the 1st leadership election, another around spring 2016 but then a general trend down until the 2017 GE when it shot up. There's then been another downward trend since.
That isn't true though is it?
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
I emigrated, I’ve no skin in the game any more.
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
Brogdale posted that Jeremny arrived with 30.4% and is now at 31.1%. 31% is unlikely to lead to a working parliamentary majority
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
I just think that is limiting support to 30%.
We will see. Maybe some sort of LibLab Pact or Concordat will emerge. I don’t see Jeremy managing to win over the 10-15% of the electorate required to have a working majority to even think about passing the more interesting bits of his manisfesto
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
That rather depends upon other variables; notably what % the principle opposition parties gain.
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
Agreed, 30% isn’t much of a mandate for radical change though, is it?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Let's see what the actual results show
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
I fear, up against Boris, we won’t like the outcome.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
You think Corbyn ought to have a blairite manifesto in reserve for if he wins, but doesn't get above 30% of the popular vote?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Johnson.
pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
Well, as long as he doesn’t follow Trump into any wars...
I can’t see he will end up with the sort of majority to force radical change through against opposition in the Lords. That’s assuming he manages to win a majority. At only 31% against the current Tory party, that’s a big IF.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Blast Boris who may yet not be part of the event
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Support for the unpopular privatisations of New Labour? Or the Iraq War? Or perhaps he should increase the attacks on the disabled?
Lets be clear what you are arguing for is for the already weak social democracy of the current LP to be watered down even further. For it to do even less about inequality, about exploitation, etc.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Someone on twitter makes this point about Labour's changing vote base:
Not seen that before...I assume it's not made up.
Before using it as the basis for discussing why Labour will inevitably end up being the remain opposition to a 'No-Deal' fundamentalist vermin leader, probably worth considering that the period 2010-2017 saw quite a bit of Lab -> UKIP churn and that Lab had 4 million more voters in 2017.
Still, quite an interesting point?
Not seen that before...I assume it's not made up.
Before using it as the basis for discussing why Labour will inevitably end up being the remain opposition to a 'No-Deal' fundamentalist vermin leader, probably worth considering that the period 2010-2017 saw quite a bit of Lab -> UKIP churn and that Lab had 4 million more voters in 2017.
Still, quite an interesting point?
Just looking back at where Lab/Con polling fortunes stood when Corbyn assumed the Leadership:
Labour were on 30.4%
& the vermin on 39.0%
...and where they are now:
Labour are on 31.1%
& the vermin on 25.2%
Discuss.
View attachment 171504
View attachment 171503
Needs frequent posting on Guardian CIF
Can't find this tweet at all on Ian Warren's timeline.
Also couldn't find that statistic floating about anywhere else.
Ian Warren (@election_data) on Twitter
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, sorry about that; I’ll try to dig around for the 2010 data/estimate, but there’s recently been stuff on the 2017 about because of Farage’s claim of 5 million:
How many Labour supporters voted Leave?
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