Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
(a) He's not convinced he'll win, and if he didn't, that would be the end of his leadership, (b) he wants out of the EU, but doesn't want to be at the helm should it go wrong, (c) he would be happier to see May (or whoever) take us out of the EU, and pick-up the pieces afterwards.
At the end of the day, Labour should be at least 10-20% ahead in the polls ATM, it's worrying they are not.
At the end of the day, Labour should be at least 10-20% ahead in the polls ATM, it's worrying they are not.
hash tag
Books, not bombs
I have yet to see this..."Corbyn explodes"
Jeremy Corbyn explodes at 'unacceptable' Theresa May over Brexit in furious PMQs
Jeremy Corbyn explodes at 'unacceptable' Theresa May over Brexit in furious PMQs
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
At this time period into the coalition government, Labour was regularly polling up to 10-15% ahead of the Tories, and that wasn't anywhere near the total clusterfuck that this government is in ATM, so they should be polling even better.
I have no idea why they are not, I doubt they do, but despite all the bluster, I don't believe they want to risk an election ATM.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
If he doesn't fancy one now he never will!
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
They were polling higher straight after the last GE, than they are now, which is totally illogical under the current circumstances, they must be seriously worried.
I agree.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
what was going on at the beginning of 2012?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Well, if you can't see this government is a total fucking mess, and therefore Labour should be well ahead in the polls, well beyond any margin of error, I can't take you seriously.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
UKIP?
Everyone assumed the Olympics was going to be shit.
andysays
Love and solidarity
It's one thing to say Labour would hope to be significantly ahead in the polls ATM, of course they would, but that doesn't mean that they are, contrary to all appearances, actually seeking to avoid a GE, if only because as things stand, now might be their best opportunity for the next few years of actually forcing and possibly winning one.
It may not be a great chance, but it's the best one they have and are likely to have.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Cash for access, and banks still in bail-out.
The government is a mess, I can see that. It doesn't necessarily follow that Labour should be well ahead though. There's a load of well-discussed realignments of the electorate which explain why there's not much shifting the polls. Which, as you said, have also failed to get it right time and time again.
friedaweed
Me and me girl named Jane
I've got to the point now where any time I see anything about Brexit or Teresa May on the noows this song slips into my head...
It's all my arse
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
4 weeks after the last GE...
And, yet, Labour is polling even lower now.
And, yet, Labour is polling even lower now.
Seriously though cupid_stunt - the flat polls and the reason for them being flat has been an ongoing topic of discussion here for the last year - discussions which you've been a part of. Why are you starting with this 'Labour should be 20 points ahead' bullshit now?
Combustible
Well-Known Member
Cameron rejected the EU fiscal compact. Seems likely that went a long way in convincing him to promise the referendum.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
BIB - no, I haven't.
Can you link to that thread?
I said 10-20%, I would expect at least 10% in view of the clusterfuck that's going down.
Perhaps you can explain why you wouldn't expect the same?
cantsin
Well-Known Member
according to... who / what ?
mauvais
on reddit or something
Yeah, like all the other European centre-left parties, right?
Supine
Newt Member
Logic?
Well, it's mostly this thread - it's become a bizarre ritual. Once every month or so someone - usually sleaterkinney or supine, but there's a rotating cast of regulars and the occasional blow-in - will demand to know why Corbyn isn't 10-20 points ahead in the polls. Everyone rolls their eyes, sometimes there's some discussion about why, although tbh we're mostly pretty bored of it after the 15th go round. I think the pages from april here probably have the most complete discussion. Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
a quick search shows there's this thread which has some discussion on the topic, and of course the political polling thread has quite a bit: embarrassingly, the last page or so is mostly you telling me how polls can't be trusted because they're often wrong beyond the margin of error, complete with wikipedia screenshots.
FWIW I think the polls are probably about right, and aren't shifting for various reasons: a polarised electorate, the absolute shitshow that is modern politics nationally and internationally, the constant stream of attacks from the press, Corbyn's own marmite nature (this is partly to do with the constant stream of attacks from the press, but it isn't just). The one thing that actually has had any significant and lasting impact on the polls IMO is his response to Salisbury, which he fucked up badly.
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