Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[hash tag]

I don't want to go down this route here, but it would take some debating about what a second referendum should be for

Or, even if we should ever have a referendum at all, ever.

 

[cantsin]

clowns all day whinging that Corbyn needed to call no conf vote, with zero chance of winning it...

Corbyn, as per, says nothing, waits it out, and lets the oppo's circular firing squad totter back in to action ....

update : cycles into Parliament today, probably whistling, doing his no hands thing, offering Chuka a cheery good morning, as Tory no conf vote is confirmed .

 

[sleaterkinney]

Tory no confidence vote doesn't get him any closer to govt.

 

[killer b]

It could do though. There's a number of possible outcomes to this that could see the Government losing a confidence vote in the near future which wouldn't have happened if they'd won one yesterday.

 

[strung out]

Given that at least 50+ Tory MPs will be voting that they have no confidence in May as leader of the government, couldn't Corbyn justifiably argue that a motion of no confidence in the government is justified given that Lab, SNP, LDs and the Tory 50+ would bring the government down?

I doubt that enough of the Tory 50+ rebels would actually support a motion of no confidence, but couldn't Corbyn make considerable capital out of the fact that a sizeable chunk of Tory MPs dont support Teresa May while seemingly backing her government?

 

[Sprocket.]

I personally think Corbyn is too shrewd to make any waves at this point. He will just keep nudging and raising awareness. Sit back and wait for the Tories to fail and fall upon themselves like a shoal of piranha.

 

[sleaterkinney]

It could do though. There's a number of possible outcomes to this that could see the Government losing a confidence vote in the near future which wouldn't have happened if they'd won one yesterday.

Either May comes out stronger or a different leader will get in.

 

[killer b]

I don't think May is coming out stronger from this. She'll most likely come out as leader again IMO, but no chance stronger. Have you seen this shitshow?

 

[sleaterkinney]

There can't be another leadership challenge for a year and the ERG will have failed.

 

[cantsin]

Tory no confidence vote doesn't get him any closer to govt.

and Lab calling for an easily defeatable No Conf vote, that would have united the Tories, would have ?

 

[killer b]

There can't be another leadership challenge for a year and the ERG will have failed.

They'll have failed to replace May, and reduced their possible methods for stopping her deal going through. There are other ways - like voting for a parliamentary VONC. Unlikely perhaps, but they are rats, and trapped ones too. Likewise the DUP might now see there no other option to stop the backstop than a VONC.

 

[ska invita]

They'll have failed to replace May, and reduced their possible methods for stopping her deal going through. There are other ways - like voting for a parliamentary VONC. Unlikely perhaps, but they are rats, and trapped ones too. Likewise the DUP might now see there no other option to stop the backstop than a VONC.

though only Labour could really gain from that, so yeah, unlikely i think
not impossible though

 

[sleaterkinney]

and Lab calling for an easily defeatable No Conf vote, that would have united the Tories, would have ?

Why would it be easily defeated?. All they need to do is pull in a few Tories. But that would mean having a better plan themselves...

 

[Wilf]

Why would it be easily defeated?. All they need to do is pull in a few Tories. .

I think the answer's in the question. And it would have to be 'a good few' given the dup are still lining up with the tories on a vonc.

 

[killer b]

Why would it be easily defeated?. All they need to do is pull in a few Tories. But that would mean having a better plan themselves...

Which tories might have voted with Labour yesterday?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Which tories might have voted with Labour yesterday?

There is a lot of dissatisfaction with Mays plan and the way she ran from parliament. Would the ERG accept her deal or bring down the govt?. Labour are still behind in the polls.

 

[killer b]

Well the ERG defo wouldn't have brought down the government yesterday. If they don't win tonight they've got one less lever.

Labour aren't behind in the polls, they've led or on evens in most of the polls this month.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Voting intention | YouGov

 

[killer b]

oh look.

 

[killer b]

Actually they haven't updated that in a bit have they? Either way, they aren't behind in the polls, unless you're only going with yougov.

 

[sleaterkinney]

More to the point, with the govt in a mess they should be miles ahead.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Pointless talking about the polls, they are all basically within the margin of error, and have failed to get it right time & time again.



Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

 

[killer b]

More to the point, with the govt in a mess they should be miles ahead.

They aren't behind in the polls then. Gotcha.

 

[sleaterkinney]

They aren't behind in the polls then. Gotcha.

They were in the ones I looked at. Gotcha.

 

[cupid_stunt]

They aren't behind in the polls then. Gotcha.

On average, in all the polls concluded during Nov & so far in Dec, they are behind.

 

[killer b]

You're counting Yougov four times to get that average though, and the others only once or twice. I don't think that works.

 

[killer b]

Actually, only Yougov have shown a tory lead in the last month - and even with them the direction of travel is pretty clear.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It doesn't matter, they are all within the margin of error.

What does matter, is that Labour should be well ahead, in view of the clusterfuck that's going on, but they are not, which is why Corbyn doesn't actually want an election.

 

[killer b]

Corbyn doesn't actually want an election.

erm what.

 

[co-op]

What does matter, is that Labour should be well ahead, in view of the clusterfuck that's going on, but they are not, which is why Corbyn doesn't actually want an election.

Corbyn voted for an election and whipped his MPs to vote for one in May 2017 when they were on 25% and the tories were on 42%. Labour also have a ton of money thanks to their huge membership. What on earth makes you think he'd fear another election now?