Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[cupid_stunt]

...and of course the political polling thread has quite a bit: embarrassingly, the last page or so is mostly you telling me how polls can't be trusted because they're often wrong beyond the margin of error, complete with wikipedia screenshots.

That screenshot I posted showed the Tories on a maximum lead of 13%, average well under 10%, they ended-up with a lead of 2.5%, a difference of somewhere around 5-6% between the average polling & final result, well outside the margin of error.

That somewhat reinforces what I am saying on this thread, here & now, Labour should be polling well above the margin of error to have any chance, yet they are basically tied, despite this government being in a worst mess than any other in my lifetime, it makes no sense, especially considering the polling companies have changed their methodology in an attempt to counter the basis they had towards the Tories in the run-up to the last election.

If Labour was polling 13% & ended-up with a 2.5% lead, that would be a good result, but they are polling nothing like that.

 

[killer b]

Ah, I won't bother next time.

 

[agricola]

That screenshot I posted showed the Tories on a maximum lead of 13%, average well under 10%, they ended-up with a lead of 2.5%, a difference of somewhere around 5-6% between the average polling & final result, well outside the margin of error.

That somewhat reinforces what I am saying on this thread, here & now, Labour should be polling well above the margin of error to have any chance, yet they are basically tied, despite this government being in a worst mess than any other in my lifetime, it makes no sense, especially considering the polling companies have changed their methodology in an attempt to counter the basis they had towards the Tories in the run-up to the last election.

If Labour was polling 13% & ended-up with a 2.5% lead, that would be a good result, but they are polling nothing like that.

That is to misread the polling, though.

The issue with the polls and with the 2017 GE is that the Tories were able to portray themselves as the party of Brexit; in 2017 that cleaned up the problem UKIP posed, putting 5-8% back onto their vote, and now it is keeping people who do not like this deal in the Tory camp (given that the ERG represents "No Deal" but is a Tory faction, rather than a UKIP one). Until Brexit is resolved one way or the other, its likely they will keep that share of the vote and there will be no collapse in their vote.

Labour's vote on the other hand is more anti-Tory than anti-Brexit; until sufficient Tory voters are embittered (because of a Brexit that is too hard or too soft) they will not pick up votes from them, and will not have a major bump in the polls. The important thing however is that having 38-41% of the vote being relatively stable is a very strong position; any collapse in the Tory vote results in a victory.

 

[Supine]

Once every month or so someone - usually sleaterkinney or supine, but there's a rotating cast of regulars and the occasional blow-in - will demand to know why Corbyn isn't 10-20 points ahead in the polls

Not something I ever remember demanding, but hey don't let the details weigh you down.

 

[killer b]

Logic?

But sweetheart, here you are just a page ago wondering why they aren't miles ahead?

 

[Supine]

But sweetheart, here you are just a page ago wondering why they aren't miles ahead?

Your disingenuous at best. Think I'll just pop you on ignore and move on.

 

[rubbershoes]

That screenshot I posted showed the Tories on a maximum lead of 13%, average well under 10%, they ended-up with a lead of 2.5%, a difference of somewhere around 5-6% between the average polling & final result, well outside the margin of error.

That somewhat reinforces what I am saying on this thread, here & now, Labour should be polling well above the margin of error to have any chance, yet they are basically tied, despite this government being in a worst mess than any other in my lifetime, it makes no sense, especially considering the polling companies have changed their methodology in an attempt to counter the basis they had towards the Tories in the run-up to the last election.

If Labour was polling 13% & ended-up with a 2.5% lead, that would be a good result, but they are polling nothing like that.

he's going to call you naive soon

 

[killer b]

Oh no

 

[cantsin]

Logic?

an opposition / and leader that is considered the most left wing in the 115 yrs of the Party's existence, has been attacked from every angle imaginable across every inch of the media, and by a majority of his own PLP, from the moment he was elected in 2015 : there are no precedents to work with here, but judged by any 'logic' I can think of, being within constant touching distance of the govt at all times in the polls, is a pretty decent position to be in

 

[two sheds]

Good points all. Unfortunately none of it is going to change before the next election.

 

[Spymaster]

Good points all. Unfortunately none of it is going to change before the next election.

Probably another 4 years, which makes current polls moot.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Good points all. Unfortunately none of it is going to change before the next election.

Regardless of the context this is a foolish statement to make in the present circumstances.

 

[Spymaster]

Regardless of the context this is a foolish statement to make in the present circumstances.

You think there'll be a GE any time soon then?

 

[Sprocket.]

You think there'll be a GE any time soon then?

Only if Putin wants one!

 

[Teaboy]

You think there'll be a GE any time soon then?

Its an interesting question which I was pondering last night. If the hard brexit erg types of the tory party see their chance of a 'proper' brexit disappearing (which it is) what options do they have open to them?

One of the few (if only) option is to join Labour in a vote of no confidence, bring the government down and hope to install one of their own (probably Johnson) as leader of the tories and win the subsequent election.

Its quite a risk and to say the least but I guess it depends how much they care for their brexit dream.

 

[Spymaster]

Its an interesting question which I was pondering last night. If the hard brexit erg types of the tory party see their chance of a 'proper' brexit disappearing (which it is) what options do they have open to them?

One of the few (if only) option is to join Labour in a vote of no confidence, bring the government down and hope to install one of their own (probably Johnson) as leader of the tories and win the subsequent election.

Its quite a risk and to say the least but I guess it depends how much they care for their brexit dream.

It's more than risky. Turkeys voting for xmas.

 

[krtek a houby]

You think there'll be a GE any time soon then?

February

 

[cantsin]

Good points all. Unfortunately none of it is going to change before the next election.

if you know what's going to happen next week, in political terms, let alone over the next 4 yrs, I bow to your greater wisdom and foresight. as no one else anywhere has a clue, or is even pretending to.

 

[Spymaster]

February

On what basis?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

February

Is this your fantasy or is it based on an analysis of thinking in the Tory Party about how a February election could benefit them? If it's the latter please share.

 

[Supine]

On what basis?

Not much else happens in Feb so why not!

 

[Spymaster]

“We’ve had enough of this government lark. Let’s call a general election”

 

[two sheds]

Regardless of the context this is a foolish statement to make in the present circumstances.

Why's that? You think Corbyn will go before the next election? Or he's not going to be considered the most left wing in the 115 yrs of the Party's existence, or that the media and PLP attacks will stop?

 

[Pickman's model]

an opposition / and leader that is considered the most left wing in the 115 yrs of the Party's existence, has been attacked from every angle imaginable across every inch of the media, and by a majority of his own PLP, from the moment he was elected in 2015 : there are no precedents to work with here, but judged by any 'logic' I can think of, being within constant touching distance of the govt at all times in the polls, is a pretty decent position to be in

he's only considered left-wing because things have moved to far to the right. auld 'red' jim callaghan was more left-wing than jezza, for example on taxes - what was the top rate of tax in the uk in the 70s?

 

[Sprocket.]

he's only considered left-wing because things have moved to far to the right. auld 'red' jim callaghan was more left-wing that jezza, for example on taxes - what was the top rate of tax in the uk in the 70s?

Correct, jezza is as right to old Jimbo as Blair was to thatcher.
Thatcher by the way brought the top tax rate down from 83% to 60% when the Tories got elected in 79.
She cranked VAT up though, screwing the poor like they always have.

 

[Wilf]

I'm not going to rehash the 'polls' thing, except to touch on their relative stability, as the brexit shambles has mutated into an omnishambles. that lack of movement is interesting and we'll have to see what happens to the polls after the events of the last fortnight. But in terms of what might happen if there is an election, Labour might have a note of caution over what happened in the last local elections (about the same share of the vote as the cons in 2018 iirc - and something similar in 2016). I don't think the polls give much indication that the Tories would win a GE if one was called now, though they must be astonished they are still neck and neck, but neither do they indicate Labour would win.

 

[redsquirrel]

“We’ve had enough of this government lark. Let’s call a general election”

I completely agree with you substance but hypothetically the ERG could vote with Labour on a VoNC, provoking May to resign and then have someone more sympathetic to their politics appointed leader and PM and then have a VoC (backed by the DUP) in the new government, avoiding any GE. But it is not a realistic scenario.

 

[killer b]

I'm not going to rehash the 'polls' thing, except to touch on their relative stability, as the brexit shambles has mutated into an omnishambles. that lack of movement is interesting and we'll have to see what happens to the polls after the events of the last fortnight. But in terms of what might happen if there is an election, Labour might have a note of caution over what happened in the last local elections (about the same share of the vote as the cons in 2018 iirc - and something similar in 2016). I don't think the polls give much indication that the Tories would win a GE if one was called now, though they must be astonished they are still neck and neck, but neither do they indicate Labour would win.

A general election victory isn't nailed on for anyone, sure - but I think this year's local election results traced the re-alignment of the electorate that we saw most markedly in last year's GE - the usual rules about mid-term local elections don't really stand anymore, at least for now.

Labour only need to move the dial an inch to be forming a minority government, and I think they're confident they can do that. In fact, they probably find the prospect of a minority government with the SNP holding the balance of power quite attractive right now, as the fallout from any watering-down of brexit can be blamed on whatever deal they have to strike for the SNP's confidence.

Either way: whatever the risks, they want an election.

 

[cantsin]

he's only considered left-wing because things have moved to far to the right. auld 'red' jim callaghan was more left-wing than jezza, for example on taxes - what was the top rate of tax in the uk in the 70s?

fair point re: domestic policy, but the attacks on Corbyn are just often related to what is seen as his 'leftwing foreign policy' and non interventionism, from Ireland to Palestine to Syria - not sure big Jim C was exactly regarded as particularly 'leftwing' in this area, or suffered constant attacks from an incessantly hostile media / PLP because of it.

 

[Pickman's model]

fair point re: domestic policy, but the attacks on Corbyn are just often related to what is seen as his 'leftwing foreign policy' and non interventionism, from Ireland to Palestine to Syria - not sure big Jim C was exactly regarded as particularly 'leftwing' in this area, or suffered constant attacks from an incessantly hostile media / PLP because of it.

The problem with Corbyn on those fronts for me is he's a fellow traveller and not someone whose interventions or support or even interest really gets anywhere. He's in the same carriage and not driving the train