Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[DownwardDog]

the breakdown of the figures doesn't show that either. Mainly 60-40 type margins. Thats a result. Solidly. No point arguing otherwise to salve ones wounds at another victory for St J lol

I suppose its fruitless to speculate on who they'll run next but the name Dan Jarvis has been bandied about on here before

Alan Johnson is still alive and still an ex-postman apparently.

 

[two sheds]

And Blair's given up his business operations so he'll be free

 

[Knotted]

60,000 more votes than he got last year. Anti-Corbyn vote went up by 20,000.

Some people may be turning away from him, most are not.

Good way to look at the figures, against my judgement it seems that he is retaining support among old members (anti-Corbyn vote is steady in absolute terms).

 

[Buckaroo]

Satisfactory but concerning result for Corbyn. Given the large increase in mostly pro-Corbyn members to the party a small percentage increase in his vote means that a lot of people are turning away from him.

Yes. Eh. What?

 

[Knotted]

Good campaign tune btw.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Good way to look at the figures, against my judgement it seems that he is retaining support among old members (anti-Corbyn vote is steady in absolute terms).

I'm greedy. I was hoping for a 2:1 majority. But given the shenanigans that have gone on wrt attempting to block new voters, this seems pretty solid.

And it's a clear majority across all three constituencies. Nobody can claim Corbyn's support isn't widely spread across the party.

 

[Knotted]

Most interesting I think is the bigger turnout among affiliates. Up by a factor of 40% and coming out more strongly for Corbyn.

 

[a_chap]

Didn't you hear; we're all out on the streets of Kent, Bucks, Sutton and Lincs next Saturday to smash up the grammars.

Leave them alone! Pick on the grandpas instead.

 

[two sheds]

Most interesting I think is the bigger turnout among affiliates. Up by a factor of 40% and coming out more strongly for Corbyn.

I think you'll find that actually means there's less of a bigger turnout among the rest.

 

[Knotted]

I think you'll find that actually means there's less of a bigger turnout among the rest.

No, I'm looking absolute numbers. 71546 affiliate votes last year 99745 this year.

 

[Knotted]

I'm guessing the GMB coming out against Corbyn didn't have a significant effect on the votes of its members. Corbyn supporters more motivated to turn out.

 

[a_chap]

 

[DotCommunist]

owen jones speaks from guardian towers:

Corbyn Mark II looks like a leader – now he must set out a clear, coherent vision

 

[Cid]

Good way to look at the figures, against my judgement it seems that he is retaining support among old members (anti-Corbyn vote is steady in absolute terms).

Anti-Corbyn vote among members dropped by 6809. Bearing in mind that's with a total vote of 285k against 251k (2015) and the overall turnout percentage point increase. And obviously that only includes new members sept-Jan. Smith does seem to have increased absolute numbers of affiliates voting not Corbyn (by about 9000), but that's with a significant increase in affiliate vote overall. Possibly union support etc. He's done 'well' on the registered supporters by getting a massive 30% as opposed to 2015's 16.3%.

 

[Pickman's model]

Most interesting I think is the bigger turnout among affiliates. Up by a factor of 40% and coming out more strongly for Corbyn.

By 'factor of 40%' what factor do you in fact mean?

 

[Wilf]

It's a very good result for Corbyn, if some way short of the killer blow. If his opponents had got something around 43/44% they'd have had the green light to crank it up, who knows even use the threat of a split to carry the fight on. This probably shuts a few of them up for a bit, brings a few of them into a position where they have to show a nominal loyalty for a few weeks, whilst still briefing against him. What's the next pressure point - council elections next year? Anything other than a clear victory will set them off again. To be honest though the anti-Corbyn lot won't have a clear plan.

 

[Wilf]

Actually, the next couple of weeks would be a good time for an investigative journalist to offer various 'disaffected' Labour right wingers some cash for questions. Push the boat out, see what you can sign them up for - arms dealing, manacles, defoliants...

 

[Knotted]

By 'factor of 40%' what factor do you in fact mean?

Absolute number of affiliate votes in 2015 X 1.4 = Absolute number of affiliate votes in 2016

 

[Pickman's model]

Absolute number of affiliate votes in 2015 X 1.4 = Absolute number of affiliate votes in 2016

Ah, a factor of 1.4.

 

[DotCommunist]

To be honest though the anti-Corbyn lot won't have a clear plan.

they must have some strategies prepared surely, Smith was never going to win, this was obvious weeks ago

 

[littlebabyjesus]

they must have some strategies prepared surely, Smith was never going to win, this was obvious weeks ago

These are the people for whom Smith was the strategy this year. Don't overestimate their abilities.

 

[Pickman's model]

they must have some strategies prepared surely, Smith was never going to win, this was obvious weeks ago

When will you learn the ruling class don't do prepared strategies? Northern Ireland? Iraq? Libya? Corbyn? When?

 

[Wilf]

they must have some strategies prepared surely, Smith was never going to win, this was obvious weeks ago

Maybe. Perhaps they had plans for what to do at various levels of defeat. They might have been hoping for 55-45 overall or, most of all, a victory amongs the members. That would have given them permission - in their minds at least - to carry on regardless, go for broke. 77-25 and they really would have to slink off and console themselves with their money. 62-38 is a very good result for corbyn in the circumstances and, the word I'd go with, deflating for his opponents - not quite the killer blow. Suppose what I mean is, what could they possibly do now, other than some kind of sullen silence, half hearted acceptance of the vote?

 

[Wilf]

Oh, and Man United are 4 - 0 up against Leicester. Just shows what you can do if you drop your leader.

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh, and Man United are 4 - 0 up against Leicester. Just shows what you can do if you drop your leader.

Yeh either that or Leicester have returned to their traditional form

 

[DotCommunist]

Maybe. Perhaps they had plans for what to do at various levels of defeat. They might have been hoping for 55-45 overall or, most of all, a victory amongs the members. That would have given them permission - in their minds at least - to carry on regardless, go for broke. 77-25 and they really would have to slink off and console themselves with their money. 62-38 is a very good result for corbyn in the circumstances and, the word I'd go with, deflating for his opponents - not quite the killer blow. Suppose what I mean is, what could they possibly do now, other than some kind of sullen silence, half hearted acceptance of the vote?

true enough, 60k a year for poundshop machiavellis. curse the world. Corbyn spotted whistling this earlier:

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe. Perhaps they had plans for what to do at various levels of defeat. They might have been hoping for 55-45 overall or, most of all, a victory amongs the members. That would have given them permission - in their minds at least - to carry on regardless, go for broke. 77-25 and they really would have to slink off and console themselves with their money. 62-38 is a very good result for corbyn in the circumstances and, the word I'd go with, deflating for his opponents - not quite the killer blow. Suppose what I mean is, what could they possibly do now, other than some kind of sullen silence, half hearted acceptance of the vote?

You'll soon find out

 

[Ax^]

so what was the fucking point in all that

 

[Wilf]

Yeh either that or Leicester have returned to their traditional form

Maybe their performance is in honour of the Leicester East MP.

 

[DotCommunist]

so what was the fucking point in all that

we got to see all the sad faces of labour rightists. Again. That'll do.