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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

Oh come on, the banks were bailed out under a Labour govt and it was under them they got into that situation in the first place. The Tories have got a better rep because there weren't people queueing around the block to get money out of a bust bank. Don't stick your head in the sand.

Yes, New Labour did that by following the Tories lead. They were Thatcher's greatest achievement remember.

Oh, and on borrowing there's this:

net-borrowing-percent-gdp-600x471.png

-GwE8ZhiusKMUq_OMyhopa5l0ZvcX9uBHJw8R9VvlCJK6_lmexgi05Bjr-MSG5W49M9fp6JMZJOawUTT9Hhs2i9K3O8EagA27RzrHA4wnsejyovIU5NgRZE9R1dxwCZcWXkc39gS


So Thatch/Major borrowed more on average, and Blair even ran a surplus (not that I think running deficits is necessarily a bad thing; on the contrary it may be a good thing at times).
 
Not quite.

Go have a look at the data for the last 50 years or so. Over half the stuff Labour are traditionally blamed for - several devaluations, the IMF loans, etc - had their roots either in the failures of Previous Tory governments, or in international crises over which they had no control.

The problem isn't Labour, it's that lazy people accept Establishment economic narratives unquestioningly.
It's unnecessary to give Labour a free ride here. Any Tory-led criticisms can be quashed with the valid retort that what Labour did is exactly what the Tories would have done, and indeed did do previously, but claiming it was inescapable misfortune is more than just a step too far, it's a tumble down several sets of stairs.

They couldn't stop some of the named events, which are in large part the product of global and irrational sentimental markets, but again they had a degree of control over the domestic magnitude. The events that made up the globally-repeated mess of subprime mortgages was probably beyond control, but that we then had to bail out RBS et al after a decade of Labour government is their failure.

Prudence might have been unpopular, and had its own costs, but there was ample opportunity to identify and mitigate the looming crisis.

So you can't get out of Labour complicity in the historical mismanagement of the economy. In fact, the best thing for contemporary Labour to do, in the face of both reputation and reality, may be to openly admit that, whilst proposing a significant detour from the well-trodden path to failure, and not by way of 'an end to boom and bust' either. I wonder if anyone is well placed to do that?

scratchchin.gif
 
Oh come on, the banks were bailed out under a Labour govt and it was under them they got into that situation in the first place. The Tories have got a better rep because there weren't people queueing around the block to get money out of a bust bank. Don't stick your head in the sand.

If you're saying it's because of ideological differences that that happened under the last Labour government, well that Labour government's ideological position was barely distinguishable from Thatcherist Tory ideology. If you're saying it was a managerial problem, virtually all of the key personnel have changed since then. So what are you suggesting the implications are for who can or can't be trusted on the economy now?
 
Oh come on, the banks were bailed out under a Labour govt and it was under them they got into that situation in the first place. The Tories have got a better rep because there weren't people queueing around the block to get money out of a bust bank. Don't stick your head in the sand.
Rubbish. What got the banks into that mess was the cynical slackening of controls on their activities that was perpetrated by the previous Tory government. Admittedly, New Labour helped nothing (and I note your willingness to elide the very-different neoliberal New Labour approach with Corbyn's anything-but-neoliberal approach when it suits you), but the ball was already rolling before they took power.

Your parroting of Tory cant, aimed at ignorant voters and loyal followers, says a lot more about you than what you're criticising.
 
the perception of tory economic competence is also linked to how wealthy the buggers are individually. Must know something about money right? Yep, how to inherit it and bank it offshore
That's exactly it. The Tories have been shockingly incompetent in power, they rely on their personal wealth to project competence.
 
Yes, New Labour did that by following the Tories lead. They were Thatcher's greatest achievement remember.

Oh, and on borrowing there's this:

net-borrowing-percent-gdp-600x471.png

-GwE8ZhiusKMUq_OMyhopa5l0ZvcX9uBHJw8R9VvlCJK6_lmexgi05Bjr-MSG5W49M9fp6JMZJOawUTT9Hhs2i9K3O8EagA27RzrHA4wnsejyovIU5NgRZE9R1dxwCZcWXkc39gS


So Thatch/Major borrowed more on average, and Blair even ran a surplus (not that I think running deficits is necessarily a bad thing; on the contrary it may be a good thing at times).

Thatcher and Major borrowed during recessions and headed towards a surplus as the country emerged from recessions. Blair committed to stick with Tory spending plans post-election to help reassure voters. What he (and Brown) should have done is achieve a surplus before 2006, then the highest bars on the graph in financial crisis would have been at the same height as previous recessions.

^^ This is the narrative that was came up repeatedly during the 2015 election and is big reason why Labour lost imo.
 
Amazing to hear that the Labour Party were in control of the global economy since the mid-70s and that it was they who helped foster a massive increase in the global mobility of capital with its concomitant fincialisation and imposed conditions favourable to the same across pretty much every state and economy that plays a role in the global economy whilst enforcing crippling debt across those states that didn't in order to draw them into that economy as defenceless victims of that newly mobile capital. Always learn something new on here.
 
It's unnecessary to give Labour a free ride here. Any Tory-led criticisms can be quashed with the valid retort that what Labour did is exactly what the Tories would have done, and indeed did do previously, but claiming it was inescapable misfortune is more than just a step too far, it's a tumble down several sets of stairs.

They couldn't stop some of the named events, which are in large part the product of global and irrational sentimental markets, but again they had a degree of control over the domestic magnitude. The events that made up the globally-repeated mess of subprime mortgages was probably beyond control, but that we then had to bail out RBS et al after a decade of Labour government is their failure.

Prudence might have been unpopular, and had its own costs, but there was ample opportunity to identify and mitigate the looming crisis.

So you can't get out of Labour complicity in the historical mismanagement of the economy. In fact, the best thing for contemporary Labour to do, in the face of both reputation and reality, may be to openly admit that, whilst proposing a significant detour from the well-trodden path to failure, and not by way of 'an end to boom and bust' either. I wonder if anyone is well placed to do that?

scratchchin.gif

Hence my not absolving Labour, but merely commenting that "over half" wasn't directly their fault. :)
 
Oh come on, the banks were bailed out under a Labour govt and it was under them they got into that situation in the first place. The Tories have got a better rep because there weren't people queueing around the block to get money out of a bust bank. Don't stick your head in the sand.
1. You mean to tell me that the Tories wouldn't have bailed out the banks? Come off it. 2. You're still pursuing the establishment narrative that the Tories have a better record on the economy, yet there is nothing to even remotely suggest that they're better. As VP says, Labour governments have often had to clear up the mess left behind by the Tories. 3. The only person who's "sticking their head in the sand" is you. Why? Because you keep repeating the same old tropes and myths.
 
That's excellent, they can go out to the voters and say it wasn't us, it was the Tories that did it!. :D
I expect that's exactly what some media-obsessed neoliberal New Labour operation would do, yes.

One of the primary appeals of Corbyn is that he at least gives the appearance of being a great deal more principled, whatever you might happen to think of those principles.

Much as Thatcher, though mad and evil, at least stuck to the majority of her evil principles, unlike, say, David Cameron, whose principles were as flexible as the jaws of the pig's head he porked.
 
If you go out in the rain without a raincoat, you'll get wet. There's a rule. And it rains more in winter than summer, probably. There's a pattern. Now, go control the weather.

The specific failure of a century of politicians, within the system's parameters anyway, isn't failure to control the economy per se. It's a failure to roll with the punches because it doesn't suit their narrative or ideology. Failure to extract the most advantage or greatest shelter from the inevitable but partly-predictable chaos. So for example not preventing the European debt crisis per se, but the lack of regulation and economic diversification that made its domestic effects worse. Or trying to apply austerity, as befits the Tory ideology, in a time when that was counterproductive to growth.
I agree with this but what I would emphasise is that the economy, like the weather, is essentially chaotic. Like the way that weather is made up of a million small moving pieces, the economy is made up of an awful lot of individual segments that each have their own drivers that feed into and are fed back from other drivers for other segments. On top of that, it has shocks that have no predicable factor and those shocks have a chaotic impact.

This is why it's preposterous to view economics as anything inherently scientific in nature, or to think that you can have experts in economic prediction. You can't set up repeatable or controllable tests (necessary for science) and you don't get rapid and clear feedback loops from prediction (necessarily for expertise).

Not sure where we go with that, but it does mean that when somebody predicts that lever A will cause consequence B, we should be extremely sceptical that they can make such a claim except in the most straightforward of circumstances. Lever A causes consequence A1 but that causes further consequences B1 to B100, which have chaotic interactions with each other and the result is that Brexit is predicted to cause a stock market crash but actually sees a stock market rally.

Oh come on, the banks were bailed out under a Labour govt and it was under them they got into that situation in the first place. The Tories have got a better rep because there weren't people queueing around the block to get money out of a bust bank. Don't stick your head in the sand.
When precisely the disaster hits is purely a matter of luck. What is done about the disaster is what a government can be judged by, including the mitigations they had in place to limit the damage and improve the result.

The mitigation to the 2008 problems would have been very tight banking regulations. Their absence can be primarily laid at the door of the Tories that took them away. I also blame Labour for not putting them straight back in place, but that doesn't mean I let the Tories off the hook.

Fundamentally, Tory governments tend to be terrible at managing the economy because they are ideologically driven towards free market fundamentalism, supply-side management and trickle-down economics -- three things shown time and again to be nonsense both theoretically and in practice.
 
Rubbish. What got the banks into that mess was the cynical slackening of controls on their activities that was perpetrated by the previous Tory government. Admittedly, New Labour helped nothing (and I note your willingness to elide the very-different neoliberal New Labour approach with Corbyn's anything-but-neoliberal approach when it suits you), but the ball was already rolling before they took power.

Your parroting of Tory cant, aimed at ignorant voters and loyal followers, says a lot more about you than what you're criticising.

I'd say it was perpetrated by the previous Tory government, but perpetuated by New Labour, through their wanting to send that "intensely relaxed about wealth" message.
 
This is why it's preposterous to view Fundamentally, Tory governments tend to be terrible at managing the economy because they are ideologically driven towards free market fundamentalism, supply-side management and trickle-down economics -- three things shown time and again to be nonsense both theoretically and in practice.
no they're not.
and whatever economics Labour governments subscribe to are also nonsense in theory and in practice.

amazingly it seems like everyone is terrible at managing the economy. I wonder why?
 
no they're not.
Er, yes they are. It's the fundamental tenets of Conservatism. In what way do you say they're not?
and whatever economics Labour governments subscribe to are also nonsense in theory and in practice.
So you don't actually know whatever economics Labour governments subscribe to, and yet you know they are nonsense in theory and practice? Clever!

amazingly it seems like everyone is terrible at managing the economy. I wonder why?
Because of the reasons I described in the part of my post that you deleted.
 
Er, yes they are. It's the fundamental tenets of Conservatism. In what way do you say they're not?
nobody bothers with tenets. they've been Keynesian consensus types when it's suited. they're certainly not free market fundamentalists - that's not what capital wants and it's not want they want, whatever stuff they may come out with.
So you don't actually know whatever economics Labour governments subscribe to, and yet you know they are nonsense in theory and practice? Clever!
ah but it's even cleverer than that, I know that what they subscribe to has changed over time, hence why I said whatever - as in, they've all turned out to be nonsense in the end.
Because of the reasons I described in the part of my post that you deleted.
could be, I didn't read that part sorry :oops:
 
All this stuff is subject to the points people made about that Owen Jones article isn't it - it's true to say there is a lot of convincing Labour needs to do on the economy I think. But to argue that the answer to that is to get rid of Corbyn and return to people who were actually directly associated with the response to the crash (and if Owen Smith wasn't you know his cabinet would be made up of people who were) is a strange one to say the least.
 
Rent controls would be a bad idea,

Why? On the one side you've got reducing the insane rents for a few million people, many of whom are in real difficulties because of them.

On the other side you're reducing unearned profits from people who paid very little for the houses - so nearly all profit once you've got a couple of people in a house. On a sliding scale of profit down to people who've bought at the height of the market - many of whom I presume will be buy to let. Investments can go down as well as up.

building a lot of new council / social housing would be a lot better one - you would achieve the same result as rent controls (lowering rental costs, and possibly lowering house prices) whilst also creating jobs and creating assets that could be sold (perhaps as some kind of right to buy for long-term tenants, ie: pay slightly more over 30 years and they give you the house at the end) further down the line.

Yep house building too, but if you're going to do it on a huge scale then a lot of greenbelt will go.

And building new houses won't necessarily bring rents down. Houses aren't simple supply and demand. The huge house price increases we've had have come from inflationary bubbles, not sudden drops in supply.

As an aside, one point of concern for me is who's going to build the houses. I'm hoping Corbyn won't be like the EU which seemed to just throw money at the big companies for infrastructure projects. I think we need (properly managed) co-operatives and similar to spread the money more widely.
 
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All this stuff is subject to the points people made about that Owen Jones article isn't it - it's true to say there is a lot of convincing Labour needs to do on the economy I think. But to argue that the answer to that is to get rid of Corbyn and return to people who were actually directly associated with the response to the crash (and if Owen Smith wasn't you know his cabinet would be made up of people who were) is a strange one to say the least.
but according to the polls at least, many more people currently think the Tories who are also directly associated with the response to the crash to be more credible on the economy than Corbyn. So there is a logic to seeing Smith, broadly representing a continuation of that, as an answer to this problem (although god help them if he really is their answer) and that problem is one that Corbyn/Labour are going to have to find a way past.

It's quite possible I suppose to think that Smith would be shit on the economy but at the same time to think that Corbyn would be shitter, for instance.
 
but according to the polls at least, many more people currently think the Tories who are also directly associated with the response to the crash to be more credible on the economy than Corbyn. So there is a logic to seeing Smith, broadly representing a continuation of that, as an answer to this problem (although god help them if he really is their answer) and that problem is one that Corbyn/Labour are going to have to find a way past.

It's quite possible I suppose to think that Smith would be shit on the economy but at the same time to think that Corbyn would be shitter, for instance.

Sure - I'm not trying to argue that Corbyn is necessarily better, or will be more popular, just that those questions still exist if he's replaced by someone else. And there's nothing coming out about how they do it, they seem to think that replacing him will suddenly make them credible, or 'electable'. And they're totally wrong as far as I can see.
 
The difference between labour and tory on budget - tories no better than labour - marginally worse up to 2008 I'd have thought.
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Deficit, national debt and government borrowing - how has it changed since 1946?

(I'm presuming these allow for inflation).

Not a meaningful measure that one on its own. Measuring the deficit as a percentage of GDP is the way to go. I mean a thousand pound debt for me would be a sign of real trouble, but a thousand pound debt for Bill Gates wouldn't cause much loss of sleep.
 
The difference between labour and tory on budget - tories no better than labour - marginally worse up to 2008 I'd have thought.

Deficit, national debt and government borrowing - how has it changed since 1946?

(I'm presuming these allow for inflation).
They don't account for inflation. So as you move towards the LHS, you need to imagine the charts stretching more and more.

On the face of it, though, Blair-era Brown inherited something that was travelling in the 'right' direction, and gradually reversed the trend, only rescued by Osborne. So really only something to be used against Labour.

I say 'right' because that whole argument takes place on someone else's terms, where deficit automatically equals bad.
 
Sure - I'm not trying to argue that Corbyn is necessarily better, or will be more popular, just that those questions still exist if he's replaced by someone else. And there's nothing coming out about how they do it, they seem to think that replacing him will suddenly make them credible, or 'electable'. And they're totally wrong as far as I can see.
it probably would make them look more credible. Smith at least has the dubious advantage of virtually nobody knowing who he is or what he stands for, whereas Corbyn has a particular problem on the issue.

And it's not surprising that it should be that way, given that all comentators will I imagine pretty much agree that Smith is more credible, his parliamentary party will agree he's more credible, even the Tories will probably agree he's more credible, and only some easily smeared lefties will disagree. Corbyn won't get a fair hearing to develop credibility in the usual way and maybe people wouldn't think him credible in any case, I don't know. On the other hand, it's potentially early days before a general election and Labour is in the middle of a factional dispute playing out in the national media so I'm not sure it's really possible for Corbyn to look all that strong policy-wise until that's resolved anyway.
 
Not quite.

Go have a look at the data for the last 50 years or so. Over half the stuff Labour are traditionally blamed for - several devaluations, the IMF loans, etc - had their roots either in the failures of Previous Tory governments, or in international crises over which they had no control.

The problem isn't Labour, it's that lazy people accept Establishment economic narratives unquestioningly.
The problem isn't Labour or the tories; it's the totality of their combined macro-economic strategy post 1973 which has been a shared project.

As this graph for the US economy illustrates, very nearly all OECD states attempted to compensate for the neoliberal divergence between returns to capital & labour by stimulating first inflation, then public debt and finally private debt. Irrespective of which particular party of capital held office, this was the script followed on behalf of FinCap.

6decbb06-5ec4-4224-acef-71cc9156a5d0_zpscbeddhi0.png
 
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