Is it too late?

[Signal 11]

One reason I decided to post that graphic here is because 2023 is so off the charts.

No it is not. It looks about 0.1 degrees above the record so far, about what we should expect given the known rate of warming and the fact that El Niño has boosted the last few months. It doesn't give any support to the nonsense you posted.

Only time will tell what will happen.

No. Any climate scientist would tell you that you are wrong. As shown above, no one serious is projecting that much warming by the end of the century, let alone in the next three years.

 

[bcuster]

‘Grief is a rational response’: the 21 US species declared extinct this year

Hawaii hardest hit by loss of eight birds, with an Ohio catfish, a Pacific fruit bat and eight freshwater mussels also disappearing

www.yahoo.com

 

[Aquamarine]

A recent paper confirms there is much more warming in the pipeline than previously assumed and which has been partially concealed by air pollution.

'...present greenhouse gas forcing is 70% of the forcing that made Earth’s temperature in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum at least +13°C relative to preindustrial temperature.'

From: ‘Global Warming in the Pipeline’ – by James Hansen et al. (update)

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/PipelineDraft.19May2023.pdf

The full version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.04474.pdf

 

[Signal 11]

The full version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.04474.pdf

And does it support your claim that we will reach 10 degrees of warming in three years? Let's try quoting the part that tells us whether it does.

With current policies, we expect climate forcing for a few decades post-2010 to increase 0.5-0.6 W/m2 per decade and produce global warming at a rate of at least +0.27°C per decade. In that case, global warming should reach 1.5°C by the end of the 2020s and 2°C by 2050

So no, their conclusions are in line with the consensus among experts and they absolutely disagree with you.

 

[Aquamarine]

And does it support your claim that we will reach 10 degrees of warming in three years? Let's try quoting the part that tells us whether it does.



So no, their conclusions are in line with the consensus among experts and they absolutely disagree with you.

No-one is saying 10C is inevitable. Read the thread and paper properly.

 

[Signal 11]

A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026

No-one is saying 10C is inevitable. Read the thread and paper properly.

I asked you to support your claim and you responded by posting up a paper that completely contradicts it, you dishonest prick.

 

[Aquamarine]

I asked you to support your claim and you responded by posting up a paper that completely contradicts it, you dishonest prick.

You seem to think I am trying to intentionally mislead.
The text in Italics and the graphic I posted were taken from the accompanying link. I thought that was obvious. I myself said I believe the planet could see much higher temperature rises in the near future than previously assumed.
My posting of that paper was not particularly directed at you. If I have understood it correctly it is saying that assuming current GHG forcing stabilizes and manmade aerosols are eliminated, when all feedbacks – including the ‘long term’ feedbacks – play out, the planet is on track for about 10C warming and 6-7C if aerosols remain at current levels. This is a ‘scenario’ not inevitability. GHG emissions cannot be allowed to keep growing at the current rate.

 

[Signal 11]

You seem to think I am trying to intentionally mislead.

You were trying to intentionally mislead. You posted the claim that "A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026" when you knew that was a ridiculous exaggeration. You claimed that "there are climate scientists who more or less agree with it" when you knew there were none. And you tried to imply that the Hansen paper supported it when you knew that it did not.

 

[Orang Utan]

Not with a bang…but with a squabble

 

[Orang Utan]

Happy New Year!

 

[Flavour]

No-one is saying 10C is inevitable. Read the thread and paper properly.

less alarmism please

 

[Pickman's model]

less alarmism please

Yeh we don't need such outlandish claims when the reality of not yet 1.5⁰c is bad enough

 

[bcuster]

A message from the plants: US is getting a lot warmer, new analysis says

A recent analysis by federal scientists shows what can grow where is changing. That's what scientists expect as the planet warms.

www.yahoo.com

 

[bcuster]

'The impacts are real': New satellite images show East Coast sinking faster than we thought

It's not just land that's sinking, so are \

www.usatoday.com

"The problem is not just that the land is sinking. The problem is that the hotspots of sinking land intersect directly with population and infrastructure hubs," according to a statement from lead author Leonard Ohenhen, a graduate student working with associate professor Manoochehr Shirzaei at Virginia Tech’s Earth Observation and Innovation Lab.

 

[bcuster]

Such frivolous waste. Disgusting…

Video of parents’ bizarre prank on their children sparks outrage online: ‘I’d be livid’

Users in the comments section agreed they wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of this type of prank.

www.yahoo.com

 

[8ball]

'The impacts are real': New satellite images show East Coast sinking faster than we thought

It's not just land that's sinking, so are \

www.usatoday.com

"The problem is not just that the land is sinking. The problem is that the hotspots of sinking land intersect directly with population and infrastructure hubs," according to a statement from lead author Leonard Ohenhen, a graduate student working with associate professor Manoochehr Shirzaei at Virginia Tech’s Earth Observation and Innovation Lab.

New Amsterdam -> New York -> New Venice

 

[bcuster]

New Amsterdam -> New York -> New Venice

Very true

 

[bcuster]

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

LETTER • THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE ISOPEN ACCESS

Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S.​

 

[bcuster]

Groundwater resources are drying up across the globe. New research suggests we can fight the drip

A new study reveals that groundwater levels, though at dangerously low levels, can be replenished

www.yahoo.com

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Groundwater resources are drying up across the globe. New research suggests we can fight the drip

A new study reveals that groundwater levels, though at dangerously low levels, can be replenished

www.yahoo.com

On my little acreage, we used to have a driven well near the garden. Last year I pulled it out because the water table had dropped to the point that the well was useless. The drilled well is still fine (and goes much deeper), but it contains more silt than it used to, so it seems to be in decline as well.

 

[WouldBe]

Such frivolous waste. Disgusting…

Video of parents’ bizarre prank on their children sparks outrage online: ‘I’d be livid’

Users in the comments section agreed they wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of this type of prank.

www.yahoo.com

You'd make a tidy sum from cashing it in at a scrap yard.

 

[Lorca]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

 

[Pickman's model]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

Is Alan urban any relation of Mike urban?

 

[8ball]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

A pound shop Paul Ehrlich.

 

[yield]

A pound shop Paul Ehrlich.

What the controversial 1972 ‘Limits to Growth’ report got right: Our choices today shape future conditions for life on Earth

A 1972 report warned that unchecked consumption could crater the world economy by 2100. Fifty years and much debate later, can humanity innovate quickly enough to avoid that fate?

theconversation.com

The author of the ok doomer article is fatalistic and malthusian. There are alternatives, which I doubt will be popular. So yes, we're fucked.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

Ah good old Malthus

 

[bcuster]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

This is the one I fear most:

 

[PTK]

This is the one I fear most:

View attachment 409789

Shit.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Would be interested on any feedback on this article, which to be frank is absolutely terrifying. It basically argues that climate change is only one of a series of interconnected issues which are all converging - mostly deriving from 'ecological overshoot' - basically the notion that we are all now like deer on a small island which have eaten all the grass, including the roots, but still the population grows.
The author argues that we are fucked basically, billions would starve without the use of fossil fuels and fertilisers, but they are simultaneously both running out and driving climate change. I don't know anything about the author though, so feel free to tell me he's an alarmist loon!

10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse

Given current population trends, overpopulation is becoming less of a thing. China's population declined by a million people last year. That's expected to not only continue, but to speed up. Many countries are declining in population such as Japan and Italy. The US is expected to begin declining in population soon and has mostly been rising because of immigration. It seems that once populations become less rural and more technical, children are less useful to the family. Almost always population levels off and then dips below replacement level. Of course, with all demographics, those numbers can change as conditions change. If there's a societal collapse, population can decline rapidly, for example.

Countries with Declining Population 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

My personal opinion is that it's too late, but I'm a well-known Doomer. I've begun planning for when SHTF just in case I don't die before things get really bad.

 

[newme]

Given current population trends, overpopulation is becoming less of a thing. China's population declined by a million people last year. That's expected to not only continue, but to speed up. Many countries are declining in population such as Japan and Italy. The US is expected to begin declining in population soon and has mostly been rising because of immigration. It seems that once populations become less rural and more technical, children are less useful to the family. Almost always population levels off and then dips below replacement level. Of course, with all demographics, those numbers can change as conditions change. If there's a societal collapse, population can decline rapidly, for example.

Countries with Declining Population 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

My personal opinion is that it's too late, but I'm a well-known Doomer. I've begun planning for when SHTF just in case I don't die before things get really bad.

Like many things I think this could be solved, we just need a worldwide effort, we did it with the ozone layer. Tho if that came up now I bet we would have significant resistance to any sort of agreement on even that. With so few companies being responsible for something like 70% of the problem and everything being loaded onto the consumer its just nonsense. Those companies need reining in but no one wants to be the one to do it. Politically its suicide, those companies have a huge amount of power and resources, especially in the US. News outlets are like everything else now mostly controlled by large companies, tech, electric, internet, gas, oil, food even. Water issues in the US, insane damage, flooding in new areas, massive heat waves and fires. A system was built that required resource exploitation and efficiency over environmental damage. Fine are mioniula and the cost of doing business. Monopolies have taken over and there is very little anyone can do about it on a personal level.

We could do this but I am becoming less able to convince myself we will actually do so. Bidens green plan is a great step forward but we need everyone to do it, the UK won't invest in anything large scale and whenever they try its bad and a huge mess.