Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[agricola]

Those are all 'ifs'; that's not how psychopaths operate.
The Johnson regime allowed the oppo to show their (feeble) hand and had the immediate response to negate their plan.

It doesn't negate their plan though - it will unify them, at least in terms of winning a VONC. Shutting the Commons down for a month will mean there are no Labour rebels (even Hoey), all the anti-Corbyn groups will not back them either and it is exactly the set of circumstances that Grieve et al said were the only set of circumstances whereby they would vote against a Tory government. That is everything that is wrong about it in Parliamentary terms, and the wrongness extends way beyond Parliament.

 

[brogdale]

It doesn't negate their plan though - it will unify them, at least in terms of winning a VONC. Shutting the Commons down for a month will mean there are no Labour rebels (even Hoey), all the anti-Corbyn groups will not back them either and it is exactly the set of circumstances that Grieve et al said were the only set of circumstances whereby they would vote against a Tory government. That is everything that is wrong about it in Parliamentary terms, and the wrongness extends way beyond Parliament.

It precisely negates the plan announced yesterday; the opportunity alliance will not now have the Parliamentary time to bring forward & pass the legislation they (vaguely) proposed yesterday. It's now the denouement; actually vote for a Corbyn government or suck it up.

 

[agricola]

Well yes, but that's (I assume) part of the regime's plan to make the choice a two-party, binary option that sets Corbyn centre stage. The gauntlet is thrown to his 'rebel's; back a Corbyn-led administration or get to fuck.

That is certainly what they think, but as we have seen there is a massive gap between what they think will happen and what happens. There is no binary choice in a VONC for a start, nor is it guaranteed that Corbyn wouldn't back any alternative government that he was not the PM of (especially as he would in effect control any alternative regime anyway).

 

[not-bono-ever]

We don need no steenking sovereignty of parliament

 

[brogdale]

That is certainly what they think, but as we have seen there is a massive gap between what they think will happen and what happens. There is no binary choice in a VONC for a start, nor is it guaranteed that Corbyn wouldn't back any alternative government that he was not the PM of (especially as he would in effect control any alternative regime anyway).

Gotta say that I've always seen a VoNC as a precisely binary choice. As to Corbyn folding after successfully felling Johnson's administration...hmm...I don't see that.

 

[agricola]

Gotta say that I've always seen a VoNC as a precisely binary choice. As to Corbyn folding after successfully felling Johnson's administration...hmm...I don't see that.

How would it be folding? He'd either be PM, or would control the PM. That alternative government could do nothing without his say-so, even if his control of his party was reduced to 30 or 40 MPs.

 

[brogdale]

How would it be folding? He'd either be PM, or would control the PM. That alternative government could do nothing without his say-so, even if his control of his party was reduced to 30 or 40 MPs.

You're explaining the logic of the challenge Johnson has just put down to his 'rebel' back-benchers; Brexit or Corbyn; that's it.

 

[agricola]

You're explaining the logic of the challenge Johnson has just put down to his 'rebel' back-benchers; Brexit or Corbyn; that's it.

No, that is what they (No.10) think the choice is - that its either Corbyn as PM or Brexit. The reality is that they can vote no confidence without that being an option, and even after that its not guaranteed Corbyn would be PM anyway.

 

[binka]

There's no way Corbyn will countenance anyone but himself being PM, he'd look incredibly fucking weak if he did step aside. Besides the change and lib dem lot have been calling him a secret brexiteer so who out of them is going to blink first?

 

[brogdale]

There's no way Corbyn will countenance anyone but himself being PM, he'd look incredibly fucking weak if he did step aside. Besides the change and lib dem lot have been calling him a secret brexiteer so who out of them is going to blink first?

Swinson's choice.
Corbyn or Brexit.

 

[Smangus]

This isn't a smart move, on a variety of levels. In Parliamentary terms it guarantees government defeats when Parliament does come back for a week or so in early September, possibly including a no confidence vote. It also requires the Crown to get involved, something which she will absolutely hate given the circumstances and without having certainty that this will actually happen. It sets a dreadful precedent for the future (if it happens) and it is enough warning (and enough justification) for a massive campaign to be formed against this government amongst the wider public, on many times the scale of XR earlier in the year. It is phenomenally dangerous what he is doing and could easily result in people being killed.

It paves the way for a Boris GE with a people vs parliament narrative at the core of it. He doesn't care about any of the above.

 

[Teaboy]

All seems very scorched earth to me.

 

[equationgirl]

My first thought on seeing this was General Election next, I must admit., although not sure if it would be before or after Brexit given the timescales.

 

[MickiQ]

Are we officially a banana republic now?

 

[agricola]

There's no way Corbyn will countenance anyone but himself being PM, he'd look incredibly fucking weak if he did step aside. Besides the change and lib dem lot have been calling him a secret brexiteer so who out of them is going to blink first?

Again, that is based on something that everyone "knows" but which isn't supported that much by evidence. Since he has been leader, Corbyn has not cared about looking strong or weak in the way that modern British politics expects - there have been no purges of opponents, no Churchillian rhetoric, no calls for tough measures against crime / migrants / shirkers etc. If the choice is someone else being PM or chaos, he will choose someone else being PM.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Are we officially a banana republic now?

No.

 

[Pickman's model]

Swinson's choice.

 

[Pickman's model]

Are we officially a banana republic now?

yes we have no bananas

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It paves the way for a Boris GE with a people vs parliament narrative at the core of it. He doesn't care about any of the above.

I think this precisely the strategy here. VONC or not he wants a narrative of the political class (which Corbyn is now the unofficial head off) v the people in the forthcoming GE.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think this precisely the strategy here. VONC or not he wants a narrative of the political class (which Corbyn is now the unofficial head off) v the people in the forthcoming GE.

Yep - agree with this as well.

Its johnson's least worst option - and it might work. Have the GE before crashing out and whilst still promising brexit do or die - meanwhile promising the moon on a stick to the base - laura norder, magic money trees etc etc - whilst whipping up a nationalist "peoples will" populist storm which forces corbyn to be on the same side as the despised "centrist" wankers.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

yes we have no bananas

That’s OK, neither will anyone else soon.

Bananas are facing extinction

 

[Pickman's model]

I think this precisely the strategy here. VONC or not he wants a narrative of the political class (which Corbyn is now the unofficial head off) v the people in the forthcoming GE.

yeh well he won't look so clever if data transfers from europe cease at 0001 on 1 november, if his refusal to pay the £39bn leads to a refusal by europe to chat about a trade deal, and if a trade deal with the usa is derailed by the impact on the gfa: all of which are eminently feasible

 

[teuchter]

a narrative of the political class (which Corbyn is now the unofficial head off) v the people in the forthcoming GE.

Seen that way by, at most, half of the electorate.

 

[dessiato]

papa's fish and chips on cleethorpes pier is worth a visit to northeast lincolnshire for all on its own

I prefer Ernie Becket. They only deal in cash should you ever go there. They do fantastic mushy peas.

 

[brogdale]

View attachment 182315

 

[agricola]

I think this precisely the strategy here. VONC or not he wants a narrative of the political class (which Corbyn is now the unofficial head off) v the people in the forthcoming GE.

That it is the strategy isn't in question, but there are many reasons to think that the strategy is nonsense.

Putting Corbyn, a man who the political class have openly gone after for four years, as the "leader" of their faction for example is profoundly daft. As is pretending that the poshest people in the country, many of whom have been in government for years and who the papers back overwhelmingly are on the people's side.

 

[sleaterkinney]

You've got to admit that the Johnson regime's timing was clever. Let the LDs box Corbyn into the 'legislative' pathway and then within hours pull the rug from under them.

It's VoNC or Brexit now.
Swinson's choice.

And if they go down the vonc route they will have to fight an election having denied the will of the people.

 

[Pickman's model]

I prefer Ernie Becket. They only deal in cash should you ever go there. They do fantastic mushy peas.

that looks lush

 

[brogdale]

It paves the way for a Boris GE with a people vs parliament narrative at the core of it. He doesn't care about any of the above.

That's certainly Craig "I physically retched" Oliver's view..



The win, win scenario ensuring tory power.

 

[Pickman's model]

That it is the strategy isn't in question, but there are many reasons to think that the strategy is nonsense.

Putting Corbyn, a man who the political class have openly gone after for four years, as the "leader" of their faction for example is profoundly daft. As is pretending that the poshest people in the country, many of whom have been in government for years and who the papers back overwhelmingly are on the people's side.

one of the self-made difficulties johnson has is that he's filled his cabinet with people who agree with him, he's in an echo chamber of his own creation