Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Bahnhof Strasse]

sure, but that's because the economic shitstorm hasn't even really begun to hit home yet. and it will - we can't possibly avoid it
Equally, sooner or later May will have to choose between the softest of Brexits - that means, continued free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, and trade rules as dictated by Brussels, or an economic catastrophe.
THEN we'll see the moment of truth

Aha! The moment of truth cometh. The same one that was due the day after the referendum, then in the months following and so on. All this end of financial days loonery is as dull as its religious counterpart. And those trotting out this line still do not get why leave won, yet somehow walk around like the leave voters are the thickos, stunning lack of awareness.

 

[danny la rouge]

Maybe the Leave voters just need to be reminded how thick and racist they are a few more times, and then they'll fall into line.

It'd be great if this strategy was headed by Ian Hislop. That would work.

 

[danny la rouge]

Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the European Union.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

"Both Parties have reached agreement in principle across the following three areas under consideration in the first phase of negotiations, on which further detail is set out in this report: a. protecting the rights of Union citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the Union; b. the framework for addressing the unique circumstances in Northern Ireland; and c. the financial settlement.

3. Progress was also made in achieving agreement on aspects of other separation issues."

 

[ska invita]

Aha! The moment of truth cometh. The same one that was due the day after the referendum, then in the months following and so on. All this end of financial days loonery is as dull as its religious counterpart. And those trotting out this line still do not get why leave won, yet somehow walk around like the leave voters are the thickos, stunning lack of awareness.

its fair to say we haven't left the eu yet, won't really until 2021 it looks like(2 year minimum transition most likely now, could still stretch longer), and until it really happens and the terms are locked down only then will any new economic reality kick in. If it's a very soft Brexit the"shock' may be negligible. A lot can still happen over the next few years. That's not doom mongering, its just a recognition of the fact that the process is long and drawn out.

 

[sleaterkinney]

As I understand it no deal brexit can't happen now and May will match eu regs unless there is some other arrangement. Brexit means Brexit!

 

[Silas Loom]

Does anyone know whether the 140 areas covered by the GFA include trade in any services? I’m unsure whether a commitment to regulatory convergence (although it surely eliminates Fox’s job) also entails FOM as the default option. If it does, joy can be unconfined.

 

[Pickman's model]

Does anyone know whether the 140 areas covered by the GFA include trade in any services? I’m unsure whether a commitment to regulatory convergence (although it surely eliminates Fox’s job) also entails FOM as the default option. If it does, joy can be unconfined.

Joy will be confined by borders as comedy will be subject to wco rules

 

[MightyTibberton]

Does that mean Mrs Brown's Boys are still legal?

 

[danny la rouge]

its fair to say we haven't left the eu yet

Nobody disputes that, do they?

Nothing in this document suggests that the UK won't cease to be in the EU as of 29th March 2019. What it does say is that the UK will continue to pay after that date. (para 63 - "By derogation, for contingent liabilities related to legal cases as a result of participation in the budget, programmes and policies, the cut-off date will be 31 December 2020").

However, it does look like the UK will be in the Single Market and Customs Union in all but name.

 

[hipipol]

Given that the Osborne cuts have been postponed and the Brexit damage has yet to kick in, I expect that things are going to get much tougher. Will the EU be sending aid parcels to their Citizens in the North of Ireland when the shit lands? DUP, we must be treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK, mysteriously quiet on their private parachute. Brexit will occur, expect the UK to do a mighty unravel in the early 2020s as a result

 

[bemused]

At the risk of being unpopular, I was mildly impressed May got this over the line.

 

[bemused]

However, it does look like the UK will be in the Single Market and Customs Union in all but name.

I don't think they'll be in the Single Market. I still suspect we'll end up with a one-way tariff.

 

[pocketscience]

Oh give over, the question was should the UK leave the EU, the answer was YES. How would you like that clarifying?

innit.

You say reverse, others might say clarify. As it stands, the answer provided last year is meaningless.

I see you neglected to breakdown the remain vote options in your fantasy referendum into the thorny issues of Federal USofEu for UK or sidelined ?, Currency Union for UK or sidelined, etc .
You'd have just as much of a fucking mess if remain had won - continued austerity across the board, the pig fucker and gideon locked out of the Eurozone room humiliated and missing all the juicy negotiations on future European finances.
The UK's setup has been incompatible with the EUs direction of travel for decades now and the door has long been closed on any more UK privileges.
If remain had won and you don't want the Euro and full fiscal union for the UK, then it would be you needing to explain your remain corner into the minutiae. But somehow I doubt you would. You'd be sitting on the side making righteous posts about how wrong the referendum question was and how thick everyone else was for voting either way.

 

[Winot]

Lots of Leavers on here getting self-righteous about Leavers being called thick racists. I haven't seen any posters here saying that. The continued bleating victimhood is a bit odd from the side that won.

 

[2hats]

Amazingly you can’t keep all of the people happy all of the time…

 

[danny la rouge]

I don't think they'll be in the Single Market. I still suspect we'll end up with a one-way tariff.

I don't think they'll be in The Single Market either. If this document is anything to go by, they'll be in a newly designed agreement which is called something different but which is to all intents and purposes the SM and CU. (Which is what I said in my post).

 

[bemused]

I don't think they'll be in The Single Market either. If this document is anything to go by, they'll be in a newly designed agreement which is called something different but which is to all intents and purposes the SM and CU. (Which is what I said in my post).

The EU has never signed a trade agreement which gives equal access to the custom union or single market as EU members, I don't think they'll start with us.

 

[MightyTibberton]

At the risk of being unpopular, I was mildly impressed May got this over the line.

I reckon the EU are probably desperate to keep her there. If she resigns or is deposed it might mean a general election with more delay and instability and god knows what result or an equally destabilising Tory leadership election which seems quite likely to produce a hard-core UKIPy-NO-DEAL-FUCK-YOU-EUSSR leadership.

 

[ska invita]

Nobody disputes that, do they?
.

i was making the point to BS who was challenging the fact that the economic doommongers said we'd be fucked by now.

Capital seems to be largely sitting on its hands waiting to see exactly how it plays out. Those with ties and investments particularly don't want the upheaval id imagine. My point to BS is only once we really really leave will the economic impact be known.

I'm not sure what's happened today re the break in the impasse but seems to me hard Brexit tories are going to have a go yet.
**i still see a contradiction over free movement as it stands**

 

[MightyTibberton]

listening to some stuff on the radio it seems like we might end up in some never-ending transition status?

 

[danny la rouge]

The EU has never signed a trade agreement which gives equal access to the custom union or single market as EU members, I don't think they'll start with us.

Have you looked at the document? I posted it at the top of this page.

I have no crystal ball. All I'm doing is reading the document released today. Like you can if you want. Things may of course change. But my reading of this document, especially the sections regarding NI, strongly suggest a SM and CU in all but name is what is being proposed by both sides.

 

[Raheem]

Aha! The moment of truth cometh. The same one that was due the day after the referendum, then in the months following and so on.

According to?

 

[gosub]

As I understand it no deal brexit can't happen now and May will match eu regs unless there is some other arrangement. Brexit means Brexit!

Not out of the woods yet.

 

[bemused]

Have you looked at the document? I posted it at the top of this page.

I have no crystal ball. All I'm doing is reading the document released today. Like you can if you want. Things may of course change. But my reading of this document, especially the sections regarding NI, strongly suggest a SM and CU in all but name is what is being proposed by both sides.

I read it this on the BBC site morning.

Paras 49 and 50 do not suggest any tacit agreement for partial CU or SM membership because EU members won't accept it. These paras lay down what the UK government would need to do if a trade deal doesn't appear. It's a holding position until the trade talks get going.

49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

According to?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer backed by Her Majesty's Treasury for starters; Immediate recession with 1/2 million job losses, an immediate increase in the premium for lending to business and personal lending and so on.

 

[agricola]

Paras 49 and 50 do not suggest any tacit agreement for partial CU or SM membership because EU members won't accept it. These paras lay down what the UK government would need to do if a trade deal doesn't appear. It's a holding position until the trade talks get going.

TBF it may not matter whether they accept it; if the argument if that the GFA mandates there has to be a frictionless border between the UK and Eire (and that partial CU / SM membership follows on from that) then the EU as a whole are bound by it as much as the UK is.

 

[Winot]

Doesn't para 49 keep open Freedom of Movement into the UK?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Amazingly you can’t keep all of the people happy all of the time…

Well if he's unhappy, then I'm happy.

 

[Silas Loom]

TBF it may not matter whether they accept it; if the argument if that the GFA mandates there has to be a frictionless border between the UK and Eire (and that partial CU / SM membership follows on from that) then the EU as a whole are bound by it as much as the UK is.

Yes.

Although not membership, access. The UK stays in transition until the 2026 sunset clause (although that could probably be extended) and loses all say over regulation. It's better than hard Brexit but it's still shit, which is why people saying that the EU won't wear it are wrong.

 

[Silas Loom]

Doesn't para 49 keep open Freedom of Movement into the UK?

If there are services aspects to the all-island Irish economy then, yes. There must be, surely. If they aren't specifically mentioned in the GFA, though, that could be a worry.