Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[bemused]

TBF it may not matter whether they accept it; if the argument if that the GFA mandates there has to be a frictionless border between the UK and Eire (and that partial CU / SM membership follows on from that) then the EU as a whole are bound by it as much as the UK is.

The agreement published today acknowledge that no trade agreement may be met and then it is incumbent on the UK government to solve the problem to the Irish government's satisfaction. I'm very sceptical we'll end up with tariff-free, unfettered, access to the single market. It would undermine one of the planks of the EU premise.

 

[bemused]

Doesn't para 49 keep open Freedom of Movement into the UK?

Not really, if you are Irish you're able to live in the UK anyway.

 

[SpookyFrank]

'Full regulatory alignment' but only applying to NI? That's not going to work is it? Amounts to either an Irish sea border, or an open back door that the EU won't tolerate.

 

[Yossarian]

Nigel Farage doesn't seem thrilled by the news that Brussels might still be checking his bananas for bendiness.

 

[gosub]

Well if he's unhappy, then I'm happy.

All he has to do is solve the Irish problem.







Good luck with that.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Nigel Farage doesn't seem thrilled by the news that Brussels might still be checking his bananas for bendiness.

View attachment 122388

Soup of the day: brexiteer crocodile tears.

 

[MightyTibberton]

I reckon this might split the Tory party though. Good news there.

 

[agricola]

The agreement published today acknowledge that no trade agreement may be met and then it is incumbent on the UK government to solve the problem to the Irish government's satisfaction. I'm very sceptical we'll end up with tariff-free, unfettered, access to the single market. It would undermine one of the planks of the EU premise.

It would, but the EU are almost certainly legally bound to at least offer it (tariff-free, unfettered access to the single market) because of the nature of the GFA; that is why Article 51 is there.

 

[Poi E]

All he has to do is solve the Irish problem.







Good luck with that.

you mean solve the British problem?

 

[MightyTibberton]

Soup of the day: brexiteer crocodile tears.

Farage can fuck off. He's a retiring politician and radio shock jock.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Nigel Farage doesn't seem thrilled by the news that Brussels might still be checking his bananas for bendiness.

View attachment 122388

Where did he expect his £73k per year pension to come from?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

'Full regulatory alignment' but only applying to NI? That's not going to work is it? Amounts to either an Irish sea border, or an open back door that the EU won't tolerate.

It works if the whole of the UK remains fully aligned.

 

[gosub]

you mean solve the British problem?

True. You can't now solve the Irish problem without creating a Scottish problem (and maybe a Welsh problem) so yeah, British problem seems more apt.

 

[Poi E]

I was thinking more along the lines of the legacy of British colonialism in Ireland, but yeah, that works too!

 

[bemused]

Nigel Farage doesn't seem thrilled by the news that Brussels might still be checking his bananas for bendiness.

View attachment 122388

He's thrilled by the pension he'll be getting.

 

[Pickman's model]

True. You can't now solve the Irish problem without creating a Scottish problem (and maybe a Welsh problem) so yeah, British problem seems more apt.

We shall return to the heptarchy

 

[SpookyFrank]

It is quite gratfiying to see that the legacy of Britain's past colonial fuckery and denial of self-determination to the Irish people is that we are ourselves are now denied self-determination.

 

[Poi E]

“We”?

 

[Pickman's model]

“We”?

Ourselves alone

 

[bemused]

It would, but the EU are almost certainly legally bound to at least offer it (tariff-free, unfettered access to the single market) because of the nature of the GFA; that is why Article 51 is there.

Para 51:

51. Both Parties will establish mechanisms to ensure the implementation and oversight of any specific arrangement to safeguard the integrity of the EU Internal Market and the Customs Union

That's there to stop Ireland becoming some sort of backdoor into the Single Market. For example, you could see the EU/UK agree to rebate any trade within the island of Ireland if any tariffs applied in a deal, but, apply them to any of that trade that flows into the rest of the EU.

 

[SpookyFrank]

“We”?

We who have benefited and continue to benefit from the legacy of colonialism yes.

 

[agricola]

Para 51:

That's there to stop Ireland becoming some sort of backdoor into the Single Market. For example, you could see the EU/UK agree to rebate any trade within the island of Ireland if any tariffs applied in a deal, but, apply them to any of that trade that flows into the rest of the EU.

That would be impossible to enforce - all you'd need is two companies either side of the border and then export into the EU from the one in the Republic. Ireland is a backdoor into the EU.

 

[Silas Loom]

From the GFA, appparently:


Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the
following:
1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
4. Waste management.
5. Waterways - inland waterways.
6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers
and fraud control.
7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and
their successors.
9. Inland Fisheries.
10. Aquaculture and marine matters
11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder
issues.
12. Urban and rural development.

Hmm. Hopefully a lot of north-south cooperation has developed outside of the GFA.

 

[Pickman's model]

At the risk of being unpopular, I was mildly impressed May got this over the line.

They were sick of watching her squirm

 

[Poi E]

We who have benefited and continue to benefit from the legacy of colonialism yes.

Costs a lot to prop up NI. Not sure anyone is benefiting.

 

[bemused]

That would be impossible to enforce - all you'd need is two companies either side of the border and then export into the EU from the one in the Republic. Ireland is a backdoor into the EU.

I agree Ireland is a backdoor into the EU, one neither side know how to close. Some shitty compromise will be made. The Republic of Ireland isn't going to be able to force the other EU member states to agree to unfettered market access to the UK because of the GFA.Obviously, I'd like to see that because it would be amazing for the UK, but I'm not holding out hope for it to happen.

 

[agricola]

I agree Ireland is a backdoor into the EU, one neither side know how to close. Some shitty compromise will be made. The Republic of Ireland isn't going to be able to force the other EU member states to agree to unfettered market access to the UK because of the GFA.Obviously, I'd like to see that because it would be amazing for the UK, but I'm not holding out hope for it to happen.

That is the beauty of the EU negotiation team raising the GFA as such an issue though; they are bound by it as much as the UK is and it isn't something the rest of the EU member states can legitimately oppose given that its already in force and has been for nearly twenty years. The only thing they could do is boot Ireland out of the single market, which would certainly set an interesting precedent.

 

[Ranbay]

just marking a place in the thread.

 

[SpackleFrog]

That would be impossible to enforce - all you'd need is two companies either side of the border and then export into the EU from the one in the Republic. Ireland is a backdoor into the EU.

Would be hilarious if hundreds of businesses suddenly spring up in the North and South of Ireland.

 

[danny la rouge]

I read it this on the BBC site morning.

Paras 49 and 50 do not suggest any tacit agreement for partial CU or SM membership because EU members won't accept it. These paras lay down what the UK government would need to do if a trade deal doesn't appear. It's a holding position until the trade talks get going.

I wasn't particularly thinking of those paragraphs. I was thinking of 44 and 51 specifically, and between the lines otherwise.

You seem very keen on a particular reading. I have no horse in this race, so I have no interest in a fundamentalist debate. I see myself as an observer. It's fine if you disagree with my reading; I don't really care.