Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Ranbay]

Ok, so i'm away from wednesday - Monday the 2nd Sept...

So someone can fill in, or you can all ignore the timer thing becuse nothing will happen in the 2 weeks anyways.

 

[ska invita]

Thoughts on the GFPA going down the shitter with a Boris no deal/no back stop?

Good Friday Agreement? This is one of the reasons I think No Deal is still just an empty threat by the cabinet. That said I think it's interesting how little comment it generates in the daily Brexit reporting out of England, including coverage of the Yellowhammer leak in which it was a footnote.

Telegraph floating via IDS an election before a vote of confidence now... That makes sense... better not to fight an election having just lost a voc, and also blocks off unity government maneouvers

 

[Supine]

I think an election called on first day back sounds rather likely. All or bust for Johnson.

 

[Kaka Tim]

calling a GE before oct 31 seems like johnson's best tactic - can fight promising a no deal exit on oct 31 - neutralising the brexit party -whilst hoping the anti-no deal vote gets split. If he wins (a big if - but not impossible) he then has to decide weather to drive the uk of a cliff or betray all the people who have just voted for him.

 

[Wilf]

I think an election called on first day back sounds rather likely. All or bust for Johnson.

We have the possibility of a general election being called, a vote of no confidence, a parliamentary recall and leaving the political/trading bloc we've been a member of since the 70s - all within a few days. Strange days indeed.

Edit: some of these can happen, not all together of course. I'd say the likelihood of any one of these, from most likely to least is:

1. gen election (with or without vonc)
2=.vonc (but no corbyn administration)
3=. leaving on the 31st October
4. recall of parliament

 

[Wilf]

So someone can fill in, or you can all ignore the timer thing becuse nothing will happen in the 2 weeks anyways.

broadly, Boris Johnson's position.

 

[ska invita]

How long does a general election take?

 

[Pickman's model]

How long does a general election take?

6 weeks

6 weeks of hell

 

[Wilf]

How long does a general election take?

Without checking I have a feeling it's around 6 weeks - but could only be called when parliament is sitting (given the need to do various things under the fixed term parliament act). Suspect it takes even longer if it's done via a vonc as they have to wait 14 days for someone else to form a government.

 

[Ted Striker]

A GE sounds rather bonkers for both main parties though - they will simply spend 6 weeks showing the (significant) splits amongst the opposing party, thus leaving it open for Lib Dems/Brexit Party to gain ground.

Granted Johnson has more to lose, but it'd be shit-or-bust for Corbyn too.

 

[philosophical]

I assume under the Fixed Term Parliament Act Boris Johnson can't necessarily have a General Election on a whim to suit his timing. I think a vote of no confidence can be made to happen first even if Johnson doesn't want it that way round.

 

[Pickman's model]

I assume under the Fixed Term Parliament Act Boris Johnson can't necessarily have a General Election on a whim to suit his timing. I think a vote of no confidence can be made to happen first even if Johnson doesn't want it that way round.

early election motion supported by 2/3 majority can do it.

 

[Pickman's model]

A GE sounds rather bonkers for both main parties though - they will simply spend 6 weeks showing the (significant) splits amongst the opposing party, thus leaving it open for Lib Dems/Brexit Party to gain ground.

Granted Johnson has more to lose, but it'd be shit-or-bust for Corbyn too.

it's bonkers not to have an election and bonkers to have an election. which is more bonkers, i suppose we'll find out in a few weeks

 

[Wilf]

early election motion supported by 2/3 majority can do it.

Yep and if Johnson wants a GE, Corbyn will support him in that. I suspect the DUP would be just about the only party who'd be against it, given that it would probably lead to their loss or privileges billion pound bungs.

 

[ska invita]

I'm betting they let the VOC play out... maximum Traitors mileage that way.
#whatwouldbannondo?

 

[MickiQ]

We have the possibility of a general election being called, a vote of no confidence, a parliamentary recall and leaving the political/trading bloc we've been a member of since the 70s - all within a few days. Strange days indeed.

Edit: some of these can happen, not all together of course. I'd say the likelihood of any one of these, from most likely to least is:

1. gen election (with or without vonc)
2=.vonc (but no corbyn administration)
3=. leaving on the 31st October
4. recall of parliament

or Johnson could ask the EU for an extension, everyone acts as if he won't but the fucker has gone back on promises before

 

[Pickman's model]

or Johnson could ask the EU for an extension, everyone acts as if he won't but

we'll either be in the eu on 1/11/19 or there's a fair chance johnson's head will end up on a pike

 

[Pickman's model]

there's a fair chance johnson's head will end up on a pike

 

[gosub]

 

[ska invita]

Good Friday Agreement? This is one of the reasons I think No Deal is still just an empty threat by the cabinet. That said I think it's interesting how little comment it generates in the daily Brexit reporting out of England, including coverage of the Yellowhammer leak in which it was a footnote.

This bombing on the NI/Ireland border has barely scraped the news in England
Police plea for NI political progress after bomb
BBC report not mentioning Brexit is amusing...usually jump on any chance to link to their What Is Brexit Anyway guides

 

[philosophical]

From reports it was a nasty incident, a fake device to lure the authorities near a real one.
The inexcusable incident was rather unsurprisingly near the border.
Inexcusable but sadly understandable.

 

[Crispy]

Boris flexes his diplomatic muscles

TL;DR: Kill the backstop, replace it with "we'll try really hard to solve the border some other way, scouts honour"

 

[Pickman's model]

the signature seems to be about two-thirds of the way to a spunking cock

 

[Poi E]

Leave N. Ireland and the problem goes away. Simple solution. Surprised he hasn't thought of it.

 

[MickiQ]

Leave N. Ireland and the problem goes away. Simple solution. Surprised he hasn't thought of it.

I am sure he has but he needs the DUP if he had a Tory majority he would sell them down the river in a heartbeat

 

[Proper Tidy]

the signature seems to be about two-thirds of the way to a spunking cock

View attachment 181537

PM Bob

 

[Flavour]

Does anyone think the Tory's approach to the backstop would be any different if they were not in coalition with the DUP? I don't.

 

[killer b]

Does anyone think the Tory's approach to the backstop would be any different if they were not in coalition with the DUP? I don't.

absolutely it would. there would be a border down the irish sea and we'd be out of the EU.

 

[Teaboy]

So there it is, the wonder strategy to make Brexit happen on 31st October. Just a bit of word play around the backstop to get the DUP on board and hopefully enough will follow.

Interesting to see how the erg types react. A lot of them were very scathing about a lot of May's plan, a total sell out seemed to be a common phrase. In the unlikely event that the EU does play ball do the brexiteers stick or twist? Do you accept it as the best route to Brexit or do you vote it down because a hard brexit is in sight and you have a leader that has promised just that? Do you risk a GE and a Corbyn led government and another referendum?

It's academic anyway because the EU will tell him to swivel, the battle-lines have been drawn for some time now.

 

[Flavour]

absolutely it would. there would be a border down the irish sea and we'd be out of the EU.

which would effectively mean giving up NI and letting it go independent by default, meaning independence for scotland an inevitability.