Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Mr Moose]

This makes absolutely no sense. The EU has just signed up to CETA, it still wants TTIP, one of the main arguments the remain campaign made was that being part of the EU "was good for trade". The supposed alternative you make in the last sentence is nonsense.

I don’t think this makes sense as a reply to my point. What’s more likely/quicker, TTIP for the EU that has rejected it or similar for post Brexit UK swallowing those terms because the UK economy is stagnating and Brexiteers need to have a tangible consequence of Brexit?

 

[kabbes]

Some people who are already rich and who DGAF particularly about how rapidly they accumulate more wealth have more belief in the innate superiority of the English than desire to get richer faster. They resent being ruled by Johnny Foreigner and want out of the EU. But do not mistake that for any misunderstanding about what “The Rich” want in terms of being rich. As a group, that lot find the idea of Brexit completely stupid. It’s costing a fortune, has ground current business plans to a halt and interrupts all strategic plans.

 

[DotCommunist]

That was tory party members. Some overlap between the two groups, but there's more than enough lunatics in the party to skew the numbers.

I know it was a members poll, but it did make me wonder how much of that 'anything but corbyn' crosses over.

 

[kabbes]

I know it was a members poll, but it did make me wonder how much of that 'anything but corbyn' crosses over.

The rich don’t even for a microsecond conceive that Corbyn could win an election. If I suggest it, they look at me as if I am mad.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don’t think this makes sense as a reply to my point. What’s more likely/quicker, TTIP for the EU that has rejected it or similar for post Brexit UK swallowing those terms because the UK economy is stagnating and Brexiteers need to have a tangible consequence of Brexit?

It only doesn't make sense because in your mind the EU cannot be part of the problem - nevermind the fact the purpose the organisation is to attack labour. The EU has not rejected TTIP, there has been some game playing by both the US and the EU but TTIP, or a similar agreement, is still on the cards. And I see we are back to the old canard of the economy being damaged.

EDIT: Of course TTIP is predicted to be good for the economy so to follow your logic through you should be arguing in favour of it.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Some people who are already rich and who DGAF particularly about how rapidly they accumulate more wealth have more belief in the innate superiority of the English than desire to get richer faster. They resent being ruled by Johnny Foreigner and want out of the EU. But do not mistake that for any misunderstanding about what “The Rich” want in terms of being rich. As a group, that lot find the idea of Brexit completely stupid. It’s costing a fortune, has ground current business plans to a halt and interrupts all strategic plans.

Exactly my view, though I couldn't articulate it. Those people so rich they don't worry about money - the De Pfeffels, Rees-Moogs and Cholmondely-Hedgerow-Bistles of the piece - can afford to see the leaving of the EU in an abstract "reclaiming Blighty" sort of way, whereas the wannabe Bufton-Tufton-Chufftons like Cameron have money tied up in EU stuff.

 

[Crispy]

I know it was a members poll, but it did make me wonder how much of that 'anything but corbyn' crosses over.

All the developer cunts who ultimately pay my wages are horrified by the idea of a Corbyn government. They're already outraged by Westminster Council allowing people to speak at planning committee meetings (WM council very nearly went red in the locals, so they're making a few sops to local residents to keep them on side), and having to pay a social housing levy on large developments. "But at least that wally corbyn isn't in power, christ can you imagine? lol". I haven't asked directly, but I can easily imagine Brexit being favorable to them, over corbyn.

 

[Mr Moose]

It only doesn't make sense because in your mind the EU cannot be part of the problem - nevermind the fact the purpose the organisation is to attack labour. The EU has not rejected TTIP, there has been some game playing by both the US and the EU but TTIP, or a similar agreement, is still on the cards. And I see we are back to the old canard of the economy being damaged.

EDIT: Of course TTIP is predicted to be good for the economy so to follow your logic through you should be arguing in favour of it.

You are completely dodging the issue that TTIP of a harsher variety is very likely as a consequence of Brexit. The EU has the power to demand terms. A Farageist politics will simply demand we spread em.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't accept your contention but like I said if you want the economy to 'do well' you are in favour of TTIP. (Also great to see the "we" used by the anti-racist, anti-nationalist progressive set).

 

[Mr Moose]

I don't accept your contention but like I said if you want the economy to 'do well' you are in favour of TTIP. (Also great to see the "we" used by the anti-racist, anti-nationalist progressive set).

No, there is a definite ‘we’ that will be ‘spreading them’ you and me both.

 

[Brainaddict]

And which section of the working class has taken a "wrong turn" in your opinion? Those that voted leave? Or those that claim "The European Union is not something to apologise for. It is a Good thing with a capital ‘g’" or "the only place to be is strongly pro-Europe."?

This rather neatly illustrates my point, the aim becomes the election of the LP, socialism is what the Labour Party does.

To the first: both.

To the second: you seem to be replying to someone else. I didn't even mention socialism. What I was saying is that nationalism is currently in the driving seat of Brexit, and this as always obscures class relations and makes it less likely that ordinary people will see where their real interests lie. What could disrupt this is a government in power that has no interest in propagating the nationalist version of Brexit, that might even talk about class instead. Unfortunately the nationalist Brexit is now so strong that it is one of the big factors reducing the likelihood of a government being elected that doesn't buy into a nationalist Brexit.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Problem is when we leave with a no-deal (which is absolutely what the rich want) we won’t be eating the rich, they’ll be eating us. I just got the date wrong.

You have not been paying attention.

 

[SpackleFrog]

To the first: both.

To the second: you seem to be replying to someone else. I didn't even mention socialism. What I was saying is that nationalism is currently in the driving seat of Brexit, and this as always obscures class relations and makes it less likely that ordinary people will see where their real interests lie. What could disrupt this is a government in power that has no interest in propagating the nationalist version of Brexit, that might even talk about class instead. Unfortunately the nationalist Brexit is now so strong that it is one of the big factors reducing the likelihood of a government being elected that doesn't buy into a nationalist Brexit.

When is socialism and internationalism ever in the driving seat? Why are you all so shocked that the ruling class are ruling?

 

[Flavour]

to get back to the question, "is brexit actually going to happen", i note BJ has already begun to backtrack a bit on his "leaving 31 oct deal or no deal" schtick. if he does do a no deal exit and the economy tanks then May the Martyr will be able to resume some sort of Daily Telegraph columnist career with variations on "i told you to vote for my deal, now look what happened!".

 

[treelover]

Andrew Neil eviscerated Damien Hinds, Johnson's main man on this on Politics Live, basically it is Mays' deal without the back stop.

 

[Mr Moose]

Andrew Neil eviscerated Damien Hinds, Johnson's main man on this on Politics Live, basically it is Mays' deal without the back stop.

Which he can either work on the ERG to accept on the basis that it’s temporary or the party will back no deal. This seems likely after the success of the BP and the recent defeat of the Labour motion. Labour rebels will seal the deal.

Labour looks weak. Won’t get a second ref, doesn’t seem to know what to do if it did. Can’t vote for the deal to prevent no deal either or one half boohoos off to the LibDems.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Brexit:

 

[redsquirrel]

To the second: you seem to be replying to someone else. I didn't even mention socialism. What I was saying is that nationalism is currently in the driving seat of Brexit, and this as always obscures class relations and makes it less likely that ordinary people will see where their real interests lie. What could disrupt this is a government in power that has no interest in propagating the nationalist version of Brexit, that might even talk about class instead. Unfortunately the nationalist Brexit is now so strong that it is one of the big factors reducing the likelihood of a government being elected that doesn't buy into a nationalist Brexit.

It's essential to reject the idea that nothing can happen until white workers are no longer racist. I don't know what anybody thinks the Russian workers in 1917 were. They were sexist. They were nationalist. A lot of them were under the thumb of the church. But they made a goddamn revolution that began to change them. Whether there's a social explosion or not doesn't depend on any formal attitudes or supporting this particular organisation or that particular organisation.

I am opposed to nationalism but the idea that a nationalist working class can't bring about positive changes is crap. Russian workers were often nationalist in 1917, many of the independence/anti-colonial movements were nationalist, some of the pro-independence Scottish working class are nationalistic. I don't agree with those nationalism but it's nonsense to say that those movements did not bring about real improvements.

Likewise one of the main drivers for leave voters was sovereignty, why not trust in that? Why not trust in the idea that workers want to greater democratic control of their lives? This is exactly what I am talking about, either you trust the working class or you don't.

EDIT: Hell it would be ludicrous to image that the UK working class in 1911, 1926, 1945 etc was not nationalist.

 

[andysays]

Brexit:

So Gove thinks Brexit is like a new kitchen.

Wasn't there a thread somewhere with crap Brexit analogies? That one beats them all...

 

[agricola]

So Gove thinks Brexit is like a new kitchen.

Wasn't there a thread somewhere with crap Brexit analogies? That one beats them all...

Perhaps what he means is that he is going to claim Brexit on expenses?

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

So Gove thinks Brexit is like a new kitchen.

Wasn't there a thread somewhere with crap Brexit analogies? That one beats them all...

If Brexit is a new kitchen, it was sold on the basis of a lovely pic in a glossy brochure, but is now revealed to be a flat pack kitchen you build yourself with a lot of parts missing, and stripping the old kitchen out in preparation has revealed dry rot, leaky plumbing and potentially lethal dodgy electrics that are gonna cost a fortune to replace whether you fit the new kitchen or not...

 

[philosophical]

For those interested, this is an article published yesterday regarding the practicalities for the land border on the island of Ireland with regard to brexit.

The Irish Border and Backstop Explained

It outlines three possible options that may constitute the choices ahead (personally I think there are more than three, but these ones may be more realistic than any others).
One option that I admit I had hardly given any thought to, is that in certain circumstances the EU might feel compelled to exclude the Republic of Ireland from it's trading regime. From what I understand it would take a no deal brexit, and for the Republic themselves as well as the UK to have basically no border between them.
I suppose that option would add up to the EU abandoning Ireland because circumstances, historical and geographical would preclude a border in Ireland, and the EU would feel they had no choice.
I believe that problem is the reason the EU simply won't re-open or change the Withdrawal (yet to be an) Agreement.
If the EU is seen to abandon the Republic of Ireland in this way, all the lenses re focus quite dramatically. There will be many in the Republic of Ireland who would harbour huge resentment against the UK if 'option three' became the new reality.

 

[Yossarian]

"Let's say you ordered a new kitchen three years ago. After years of inaction and debate over what a kitchen actually is, the contractor offers you a blueprint everybody in your family hates and you reject it. After the same plan is brought back and rejected a few more times, the foreman quits. You pop round the offices and find the workers fighting over who should be the next foreman and arguing about whether they should just rip out the old kitchen first and figure the rest out later. Should you be allowed to choose a new contractor, or should you give the same company another three years?"

 

[Yossarian]

"Hey, I've figured it out - this is going to work if we replace the fridge with a special microwave that makes things cold instead of hot! You two put the fridge in the skip while I ask somebody to invent a new kind of microwave."

 

[andysays]

For those interested, this is an article published yesterday regarding the practicalities for the land border on the island of Ireland with regard to brexit.

The Irish Border and Backstop Explained

It outlines three possible options that may constitute the choices ahead (personally I think there are more than three, but these ones may be more realistic than any others).
One option that I admit I had hardly given any thought to, is that in certain circumstances the EU might feel compelled to exclude the Republic of Ireland from it's trading regime. From what I understand it would take a no deal brexit, and for the Republic themselves as well as the UK to have basically no border between them.
I suppose that option would add up to the EU abandoning Ireland because circumstances, historical and geographical would preclude a border in Ireland, and the EU would feel they had no choice.
I believe that problem is the reason the EU simply won't re-open or change the Withdrawal (yet to be an) Agreement.
If the EU is seen to abandon the Republic of Ireland in this way, all the lenses re focus quite dramatically. There will be many in the Republic of Ireland who would harbour huge resentment against the UK if 'option three' became the new reality.

None of those options mention kitchens

Maybe we should view the Irish border question as analogous to the problem when you install a new kitchen but it unfortunately prevents access to the utility room, and every time you want to do the laundry you have to go through the back garden to get to the washing machine.

Or something...

 

[Poi E]

I thought the Irish border question was like building an annex on your neighbour's land.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Mr Moose]

I am opposed to nationalism but the idea that a nationalist working class can't bring about positive changes is crap. Russian workers were often nationalist in 1917, many of the independence/anti-colonial movements were nationalist, some of the pro-independence Scottish working class are nationalistic. I don't agree with those nationalism but it's nonsense to say that those movements did not bring about real improvements.

Likewise one of the main drivers for leave voters was sovereignty, why not trust in that? Why not trust in the idea that workers want to greater democratic control of their lives? This is exactly what I am talking about, either you trust the working class or you don't.

EDIT: Hell it would be ludicrous to image that the UK working class in 1911, 1926, 1945 etc was not nationalist.

You are doing this thing you do of claiming the working class has decided. All the demographics surely show that it was very split, BME/white, urban/rural, skilled/clerical or non-skilled, young or old. Up to 80% in some urban areas. I don’t know how you then get to ‘trust’. Leave won and it’s that alliance you have to trust.

 

[redsquirrel]

You are doing this thing you do of claiming the working class has decided. All the demographics surely show that it was very split, BME/white, urban/rural, skilled/clerical or non-skilled, young or old. Up to 80% in some urban areas. I don’t know how you then get to ‘trust’. Leave won and it’s that alliance you have to trust.

No I am making no such claim. Yet again another of your falsehoods.

I've not argued for that the working class is monolithic, indeed quite the opposite I see it as a highly diverse body shot through with contradictions and differences.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The DUP will not vote for the deal because of the backstop. Also the tories are likely to lose an mp due to the upcoming brekan by-election. Even if Johnson manages to get the bulk of the ERG on board to back the deal (and that if a very big if) - it still looks like a mighty struggle to get it through parliament. Plus it could well be the tory mps who previously backed mays deal out of loyalty are less likely to vote for it because they hate the fat eton fuck .