Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Mr Moose]

I was just responding to your suggestion that I can participate in liberal democratic politics or choose not to. Clearly regardless of my choice you won't view the outcome as legitimate!

And no doubt there are circumstances that you wouldn’t either.

But I don’t hold the outcome as illegitimate. I’m for a compromise exit. But if that can’t be found, life goes on. This isn’t the only democracy for all time.

 

[SpackleFrog]

And no doubt there are circumstances that you wouldn’t either.

But I don’t hold the outcome as illegitimate. I’m for a compromise exit. But if that can’t be found, life goes on. This isn’t the only democracy for all time.

Well then I apologise, I'd understood you as actively arguing that the process should be reversed.

I'm for a compromise exit too, let's compromise by leaving the EU and eating the rich.

 

[andysays]

The Shadow Cabinet are discussing changing policy over another referendum
Brexit: Labour MPs urge Corbyn not to go 'full Remain'

More than 25 Labour MPs have written to Jeremy Corbyn to urge him not to go "full Remain" as the party reviews its stance on another Brexit referendum. They warn another referendum would be "toxic" and empower the "populist right" in many Labour heartlands.

They call on the leadership to abandon their pursuit of a "perfect deal" and to back an agreement by 31 October. Mr Corbyn told colleagues on Wednesday afternoon it was "right to demand any deal is put to a public vote". Speaking at a shadow cabinet meeting, Mr Corbyn said he would be listening to colleagues and consulting with trade unions before officially setting out Labour's position next week.

 

[Supine]

Long but interesting read about the current state of play. It ain't looking good.

Ivan Rogers: no deal is now the most likely Brexit outcome | Coffee House

 

[Cid]

Long but interesting read about the current state of play. It ain't looking good.

Ivan Rogers: no deal is now the most likely Brexit outcome | Coffee House

That is a surprisingly badly written article. I don't mean on its content, just surprised to find out that Rogers apparently has problems writing coherent sentences.

 

[Sprocket.]

I don’t know if this has been asked up thread?
Will parliament be taking its usual summer recess or will they spend their summer playing at sorting Brexit out?

 

[Supine]

That is a surprisingly badly written article. I don't mean on its content, just surprised to find out that Rogers apparently has problems writing coherent sentences.

I agree. I think it must be a speech transcript or something. Content is better than the verse!

 

[klang]

I don’t know if this has been asked up thread?
Will parliament be taking its usual summer recess or will they spend their summer playing at sorting Brexit out?

i wonder where our new PM will holiday this year?
i'm also always looking forward to Putin's holiday shots.

 

[redsquirrel]

I think there will be severe political consequences of leaving too.

Of course there will, I have said as much.

The working class of the UK is deeply split on the Brexit issue (their interests are split too, since you want to use that language). But also, sometimes the working class - or a section of it - can take a wrong turn. Classic piece on that is Arendt's chapter 'The alliance between capital and the mob': https://static1.squarespace.com/static/599112efcd39c3b3ad2118b0/t/5b761e7388251b180ee6e713/1534467748604/Hannah+Arendt,+The+Alliance+Between+Mob+and+Capital,+The+Originals+of+Totalitarianism,+147-157+(re-scan).pdf

And which section of the working class has taken a "wrong turn" in your opinion? Those that voted leave? Or those that claim "The European Union is not something to apologise for. It is a Good thing with a capital ‘g’" or "the only place to be is strongly pro-Europe."?

As international as capital may be, the working class of the UK are oppressed chiefly by the ruling class of the UK, not a foreign oppressor. I don't see how the Brexit debacle does anything but muddy the waters on that.

I not sure how many times I have to repeat myself but it is not a question of the UK state or the EU but the capital, the UK state and the EU. And your reasoning applies to not only the EU but the IMF, the WTO, etc.

My pessimism about this direction could alter if we were to see a Labour party with an empowered left wing come to power, but at the moment Brexit is probably the main issue preventing some people from seeing that that would be more in their interests than voting the Tories in again.

This rather neatly illustrates my point, the aim becomes the election of the LP, socialism is what the Labour Party does.

 

[redsquirrel]

What is your preferred outcome and why? Take it as read that includes a working class politics that seizes the initiative, but in broad terms?

My preferred outcome is for the working class of Europe to use the opportunities generated by the current stumblings of capital, states and superstates to increase their power.

 

[Raheem]

My preferred outcome is for the working class of Europe to use the opportunities generated by the current stumblings of capital, states and superstates to increase their power.

Let's see how that goes.

 

[Ming]

Well then I apologise, I'd understood you as actively arguing that the process should be reversed.

I'm for a compromise exit too, let's compromise by leaving the EU and eating the rich.

Problem is when we leave with a no-deal (which is absolutely what the rich want) we won’t be eating the rich, they’ll be eating us. I just got the date wrong.

 

[andysays]

I don’t know if this has been asked up thread?
Will parliament be taking its usual summer recess or will they spend their summer playing at sorting Brexit out?

It will depend to some extent on what the new PM wants to do.

Had it been Raab, he was planning to send them all off on an extended summer break until early November, but Johnson may have other ideas

 

[Mr.Bishie]

An extended break til spring 2020?

 

[Ranbay]

 

[kabbes]

Let's see how that goes.

At least as well as the Remain campaign, I would suggest.

 

[Crispy]

when we leave with a no-deal (which is absolutely what the rich want)

No it's not. Capital wants frictionless borders.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Overall capital wants frictionless borders but sections want economic volatility more tbf

 

[DotCommunist]

is it fair to say a reasonable amount of domestic capital seems to fear a labour government more than no deal brexit? There was a bar chart doing the rounds yesterday that got my cogs turning...

 

[Mr Moose]

No it's not. Capital wants frictionless borders.

But those don’t have to be exclusively with the EU. There are plenty betting that this can be expanded, while keeping the EU in line.

 

[Dogsauce]

Overall capital wants frictionless borders but sections want economic volatility more tbf

Also want less regulation and less light being shone on tax havens, which is something the EU has got onboard with in recent years, albeit a bit half-heartedly. Suspect that’s a big driver for some of Farage’s slippery hedge fund mates.

 

[Mr Moose]

My preferred outcome is for the working class of Europe to use the opportunities generated by the current stumblings of capital, states and superstates to increase their power.

Well let’s work for that. But you’ll forgive us if we point out this is low in detail let alone a favourable wind.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't know what "the rich" want but it is simply false to argue that capital (as a body) is not pro-EU - the CBI, the BoE, the IMF, the G20, the WTO, the majority of MPs, the government - all argued for a remain vote, all seek to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible.

EDIT: And lets be clear the person arguing that "the rich" want the UK to leave with "no deal" is the same person that thinks Cameron was lying when he campaigned for remain. Tinfoilhattery

 

[redsquirrel]

Well let’s work for that. But you’ll forgive us if we point out this is low in detail let alone a favourable wind.

How are you going to work for it when you are directly opposed to any such thing? And it's no more lacking in detail, and considerably more realistic, than your political aspirations of huddling beneath the skirts of organisations that are designed to attack labour.

 

[Mr Moose]

I don't know what "the rich" want but it is simply false to argue that capital (as a body) is not pro-EU - the CBI, the BoE, the IMF, the G20, the WTO, the majority of MPs, the government - all argued for a remain vote, all seek to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible.

That’s unarguable, true.

But the argument of all those with power and influence in support of leaving has been that fears of disruption are overplayed. That capital can run wild and free.

Hence the desire for a FTA with Europe to protect the current position and free trade deals with everyone from the US to the Faroes. It’s reasonable to fear what this means and there appears little chance of another way. Either we stay close to the EU or open up fully to the world. Voters, Leavers or Remainers are unlikely to demand that we do neither.

 

[redsquirrel]

Hence the desire for a FTA with Europe to protect the current position and free trade deals with everyone from the US to the Faroes. It’s reasonable to fear what this means and there appears little chance of another way. Either we stay close to the EU or open up fully to the world.

This makes absolutely no sense. The EU has just signed up to CETA, it still wants TTIP, one of the main arguments the remain campaign made was that being part of the EU "was good for trade". The supposed alternative you make in the last sentence is nonsense.

 

[Pickman's model]

This makes absolutely no sense. The EU has just signed up to CETA, it still wants TTIP, one of the main arguments the remain campaign made was that being part of the EU "was good for trade". The supposed alternative you make in the last sentence is nonsense.

have you a link for the recent ceta signing?

 

[redsquirrel]

have you a link for the recent ceta signing?

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - EU and Canada sign CETA

 

[Pickman's model]

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - EU and Canada sign CETA

so it's not a recent thing then as that's a 3 year auld story and the agreement's only been ratified by 14 eu countries .'. only in provisional effect

as for ttip the way things have to go through national and on occasion regional parliaments before taking effect means that any agreement is at best some years off, and may well never happen. i wonder if auld corby would sign up to it - would be be the saviour of the anti-globalisers or their nemesis?

 

[Crispy]

is it fair to say a reasonable amount of domestic capital seems to fear a labour government more than no deal brexit? There was a bar chart doing the rounds yesterday that got my cogs turning...

That was tory party members. Some overlap between the two groups, but there's more than enough lunatics in the party to skew the numbers.