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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
I can't see BoJo the Clown going for a No Deal, I think he is a lot more remainy/soft brexit than he lets on but he knows the rubes will never buy that. Even if his own party don't foil a No Deal (and many of them are still loyal to the money if nothing else) then a No Deal end of 2019 means come the elections in 2022, PM Boris, head of a minority govt will most likely find himself presiding over an economy in a major recession and getting blamed for it.
I think he genuinely believes that he can browbeat the EU into giving him what he wants, I've met many people like this dipshit (usually in senior management) who just don't believe they can't get what they want just by demanding it.
 
Changing the Prime Minister does not change the stalemate of Brexit. With a minority government and bitter divisions in both parties Conservatives and Labour, cross-party agreement is imperative for a successful Brexit. Such a deal is likely to contain a form of Customs Union which Theresa May declined to compromise. Difficult to forecast what the next Prime Minister might agree to. If the government agrees to a deal involving a Customs Union, the consensus is that it should not preclude UK negotiating trade deals with rest of the world. That’s what the UK government will have to negotiate with the EU if they reach an agreement in the parliament. Without such a move, EU will not negotiate further.
 
xenon said:
What if a Johnson lead govt simply doesn't ask parliament and lets the clock run down?
Click to expand...
Parliament has its 'meaningful vote' still. It's written into the Withdrawal Act. That doesn't change with a change in leadership. Johnson, or whoever else it is, will face all the same hurdles and the same parliamentary arithmetic that May faced.

Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act says the Government will not be able to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement unless four conditions have been met:
  1. The documents and an associated statement have been published.
  2. “The negotiated Withdrawal Agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a minister of the Crown”.
  3. A subsequent debate has taken place in the House of Lords.
  4. Parliament has passed legislation to implement the Withdrawal Agreement.
Click to expand...

Parliament’s 'meaningful vote' on Brexit
 
Kaka Tim said:
Parliament cant necessarily block no-deal as its the default position. But there is the possibility that enough tories rebel for the government lose a Confidence vote in order to prevent it happening - and forcing a general election.
Be interesting to see if Johnson (or whoever) really is going to try and push for crashing out on oct 31. I seriously doubt it - and i doubt their own government would allow it - My money is on him blustering through with some guff about trying to put pressure on europe - "off course I was bluffing - but its worked because ... bullshit bullshit".
Could be the shortest political honeymoon ever.
Click to expand...
Yes, tories are generally a very loyal bunch when it comes to holding onto power, so they didn't rebel against May in the nc vote - they all stood for election in 2017 with her face on the posters after all. But some of them might consider that things have changed now and that loyalty is no longer owed.

I don't think Johnson is going to win. But a bit of me hopes he does. It could properly fuck them up.
 
If Johnson gets to the members vote he will most likely win. The final two will be a hard brexiteer and a "sensible" unity candidate - Hunt or Gove. If its not Johnson flying the brexit flag - it will most likely be Raab.
If the candidates dont commit to a "EU must budge or its No Deal" position - they wont win.
Johnson has stated it 31 Oct for leaving whatever - be intersting to see who else lines up with this (delusional) position.
What will stop Johnson is how much dirt his (many) enemies dig up on him - thus forcing him to drop out.
 
If the party and the men in suits are expecting a GE in the very near future, Johnson will get the leadership purely to drag the Brexit party votes in an attempt to secure a bigger majority in the house.
 
Don’t think Johnson can be harmed by scandal, so much of it is public knowledge already yet it doesn’t dent his popularity. Paints him more as the maverick outsider. Like Trump in this respect.
 
Kaka Tim said:
What will stop Johnson is how much dirt his (many) enemies dig up on him - thus forcing him to drop out.
Click to expand...

The one scandal Johnson has not yet been done for is his pro-european days. He wasn't always a brexiter, and I can see Farage going after him on this as a single issue thing in a GE. 'Why vote for an imitation when you can get the real thing' kind of affair. Farage's aim is to get a deputy prime minister role out of all this through coalition. Johnson is uniquely vulnerable to this whilst looking initially like a safe pair of hands.
 
Sprocket. said:
If the party and the men in suits are expecting a GE in the very near future, Johnson will get the leadership purely to drag the Brexit party votes in an attempt to secure a bigger majority in the house.
Click to expand...

"the men in suits" dont have the final say - the party membership does. And the final two is decided by the mps - who are split into several different factions. Whoever wins will be on a hard brexit platform and will be aiming to win back brexit party votes to the tory party.
But wether that position would win the tories a election is highly questionable - especially as they would have a large chunk of the the political, economic and media establishment - as well a large chunk of their own party - opposed to them.
 
oryx said:
No, the one scandal Johnson hasn't been done for is his help to get a journalist beaten up. Can't find the link on YouTube any more. To do with his mate and fellow old Etonian Darius Guppy.
Click to expand...

This has been posted on Urban before, shows him to be unfit not just to be a PM but to hold any sort of public office.

I cannot begin to describe how angry the idea of this cunt becoming PM makes me. I don't like Gove, Rudd, Hunt etc. but would accept them as Tory leaders.
 
I would like to thank PM May for all her hard work and dedication in making a total pig's breakfast of Brexit - She fucked up everything she touched, and made the Tory party look like a set of cunts by way of a bonus.
Thank you, now let's see if BJ can fuck it up even more. I'm sure he can because he's an incompetent little moron with the magnetism and personality of a dog turd - He's be loved in the same way people love headaches everywhere he goes.
With these cretins in charge, Brexit is as dead as it should be.
 
Kaka Tim said:
"the men in suits" dont have the final say - the party membership does. And the final two is decided by the mps - who are split into several different factions. Whoever wins will be on a hard brexit platform and will be aiming to win back brexit party votes to the tory party.
But wether that position would win the tories a election is highly questionable - especially as they would have a large chunk of the the political, economic and media establishment - as well a large chunk of their own party - opposed to them.
Click to expand...

I know the ‘men in suits’ role is limited, but I know they also have an influence on the direction the membership sway. The Tories disintegration into two camps of a more liberal and a hard right conservatism at the moment and the throat ripping that is increasing is a joy to behold.
 
oryx said:
No, the one scandal Johnson hasn't been done for is his help to get a journalist beaten up. Can't find the link on YouTube any more. To do with his mate and fellow old Etonian Darius Guppy.
Click to expand...

This came on Have I Got News For You back in 1998, didn't harm him then, he went on to be elected as London Mayor, so I can't see it harming him now.

 
People will just think he’s a badass tough guy for talking about having someone beaten up.

A significant chunk of the population want a ‘rule breaker’ leading the country because they’re sick of rules and being told what to do, what they can and can’t say etc.

These days, if you say you’re English you’ll be thrown in Jail.
 
ruffneck23 said:
it may not happen yet :

Backlash hits Boris Johnson’s bid for No 10 as senior Tories back away over no-deal Brexit fears
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he is widely despised among tory mps - but he doesn't need a majority of them - he just needs to come second. And his popularity with the grass roots means a lot of mps will under pressure to support him. He is the most obvious person for the brexiteers to rally around. It may be he takes so much flak that that settle on Raab instead - but right now he looks like the most likely winner.
 
Kaka Tim said:
he is widely despised among tory mps - but he doesn't need a majority of them - he just needs to come second. And his popularity with the grass roots means a lot of mps will under pressure to support him. He is the most obvious person for the brexiteers to rally around. It may be he takes so much flak that that settle on Raab instead - but right now he looks like the most likely winner.
Click to expand...
Yep.
'Secret' ballot, or not...loads of ex-remainiac tory MPs will be looking over their shoulders at the backwoodsmen in their local associations before going against TCJ.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
A lot of folk here and elsewhere are talking about Alex Piffle as if it’s a done deal that he’ll be the next PM. Not so sure myself. Even if he is, remember he is actually pro-EU and his pro-Brexit stance was just bullshit to raise his profile, so will be as lame-duck as May has been...
Click to expand...
Boris doesn't care about the EU or Brexit he cares about Boris. Given the irrelevance his career has become and what happened to May then going for a no deal by letting the clock run out would be his best move really. He'd be a hero to millions. Even if the economy does go tits up. Any other strategy leads to irrelevance and being seen as a traitor.
 
I suspect quite a few of the no deal ERG types don’t like Johnson either, it’s not just about Brexit, and also his insincerity over Brexit might put a few of the fundamentalists off.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Parliament has its 'meaningful vote' still. It's written into the Withdrawal Act. That doesn't change with a change in leadership. Johnson, or whoever else it is, will face all the same hurdles and the same parliamentary arithmetic that May faced.



Parliament’s 'meaningful vote' on Brexit
Click to expand...


The default is still exit with no deal if the WAB isn't passed.
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill

"If the Government cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through Parliament, then the default legal position is that the UK cannot ratify the deal, and so would leave the EU on 31 October without a deal."
 
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