Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Pickman's model]

We're certainly not the leaders of the pack since then...

born to be mild

 

[MickiQ]

Illustrates part of why all routes lead to clusterfuck whatever happens - to [at least a section of*] leavers, everyone’s an enemy. It’s going to take a political genius to get us out of this - and there aren’t many on the horizon.

Revoke and remain looks like being the best path - whatever happens from here large sections of the population are going to be furious, but at least that way we’re furious but not fucked.

* it seems to me at least a fairly large section - it appears to be Farage’s main campaigning thrust - “your Shangri-la is being denied you by [insert bogeyman of choice at the time, probably including the word elite]”

That is one scary video they are arguing over who is the most Brexity of them and she is making him look like a reasonable person.

 

[Ted Striker]

Theresa is the greatest enemy the Tory party has ever dealt with.

Absolute legend.

Agent Theresa Theory works a hell lot better when considering Brexit.

It's worth supporting it's revocation to see the Leavers lose their shit about the establishment installing their most effective (former remainer) saboteur in the whole process

 

[Mr Moose]

So if May fucks off and she's replaced by Johnson, what's to stop him suspending parliament and just sitting it out beyond 31st oct. Can the cunt actually do that ?

I think it’s much more likely that a new Tory leader, goes to Brussels all pumped, comes back fuming, goes again and comes back with the same deal, maybe some airy bollocks attached to it to save face, which then passes because,

The ERG nut jobs know it’s the only way they can leave and at least a Twatziteer is at the helm for stage two and

Enough undisciplined Labour MPs vote for it.

 

[Wilf]

My take on Johnson is that he's ultimately a shithouse. Faced with public deputations of bankers and industrialists, he'd crumble and avoid no deal. But it's crazy that we are even thinking about that idiot steering the ship.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think it’s much more likely that a new Tory leader, goes to Brussels all pumped, comes back fuming, goes again and comes back with the same deal, maybe some airy bollocks attached to it to save face, which then passes because,

The ERG nut jobs know it’s the only way they can leave and at least a Twatziteer is at the helm for stage two and

Enough undisciplined Labour MPs vote for it.

I dunno about the last bit. Labour have held it together pretty well so far - never more than five of them iirc voting with the govt on any of the iterations of May's vote. With a new tory leader I'd say all bets are off - if it's someone like Johnson, I wouldn't see a single labour mp voting with him. The labour line then would surely be to demand a general election. And in that scenario, we would see at least a few more remainer tories voting against/defecting. Even with the DUP on board, which as we've seen is far from a given, a new brexity tory leader would have parliamentary arithmetic against them.

 

[elbows]

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it’s much more likely that a new Tory leader, goes to Brussels all pumped, comes back fuming, goes again and comes back with the same deal, maybe some airy bollocks attached to it to save face, which then passes because,

The ERG nut jobs know it’s the only way they can leave and at least a Twatziteer is at the helm for stage two and

Enough undisciplined Labour MPs vote for it.

it's this deal with extra icing, no deal or no brexit. and there's not enough icing in the world to stop the shitty deal tasting shitty

 

[Pickman's model]

there's enough blubber there to supply japanese blubber fans for two years

 

[Mr Moose]

it's this deal with extra icing, no deal or no brexit. and there's not enough icing in the world to stop the shitty deal tasting shitty

Think of it as this deal, but with a nice hat on. Maybe a pirate hat with ooooh glowsticks and sparkly bits on it and you just have to vote for it.

 

[Lucy Fur]

more this I suggest...
[/QUOTE]

 

[Pickman's model]

.

 

[Pickman's model]

Lucy Fur

 

[elbows]

I thought I was done with my little hyper-speed rant but then I started thinking about how even Mays termination has been done in hyper-slow-motion. Rather than cutting her political head off, its been done one limb at a time. Dance like you're shedding limbs, Theresa.

Even as I was writing that last night it did occur to me that I was supposed to read between the lines of the hyper-speed comment, and that it was Kuenssbergs way of limply hinting that May wouldnt survive long enough to see the last vote.

The Sun was not so vague, but I try not to post their front pages.

edit - ok to be honest she did spit it out more explicitly at the end of the article, the hyper-speed stuff was an earlier setup line, and I fixated on that.

 

[agricola]

it's this deal with extra icing, no deal or no brexit. and there's not enough icing in the world to stop the shitty deal tasting shitty

Indeed, but the tactic of mentioning no deal is what has sunk them here. The only way that shitty deal (or any deal, tbh) ever passes with a Tory majority is as a question of the deal vs not leaving at all, daring the backbenches to either suck it up (their default position since 1832) or to reject the result of the referendum and accept the wipeout that would follow. Yet even now she is valiantly threatening them with no deal.

That said, I fully expect whoever the next Tory leader is to keep doing it - after all, if they haven't worked out they could get rid of her as PM by just refusing to vote with the Government whilst she is PM then theres little hope for them to do anything.

 

[brogdale]

Leader's Office (without Leader) has announced Common's business for the week following the recess and there's no 2nd reading of the WAB scheduled...unsurprisingly, given the fact that she's effectively gone.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

She's got six days to go till she's outlasted Brown. If she just refuses to talk to anyone for a week, maybe she can do it.

 

[Pickman's model]

She's got six days to go till she's outlasted Brown. If she just refuses to talk to anyone for a week, maybe she can do it.

that's a really meaningful landmark

 

[cupid_stunt]

She's got six days to go till she's outlasted Brown. If she just refuses to talk to anyone for a week, maybe she can do it.

She can still resign on Friday, as she would remain PM until a replacement is elected, just like Disco Dave did.

 

[brogdale]

that's a really meaningful landmark

but I'm coming round to the notion of the unit of Prime Ministerial tenure being "Browns"; somehow seems appropriate?
"How many Browns did she/he last?"

 

[Pickman's model]

but I'm coming round to the notion of the unit of Prime Ministerial tenure being "Browns"; somehow seems appropriate?
"How many Browns did she/he last?"

 

[Crispy]

I really hope she has the chutzpah to style it out to the 31st, just for the headlines. Might be the most simultaneous identical headlines in british history?

 

[Wilf]

On Monday of course, farage will be demanding meetings with the prime minister, liddington, downing street cat, a milk shake

 

[brogdale]

My (LD) MP informs me that "there are just 51 sitting days in Parliament before 31st October and a No Deal crash-out. With a Tory leadership contest in the middle, that has just been cut to 22 days!"

51 sitting days

 

[Pickman's model]

My (LD) MP informs me that "there are just 51 sitting days in Parliament before 31st October and a No Deal crash-out. With a Tory leadership contest in the middle, that has just been cut to 22 days!"

51 sitting days

yeh they're really going to get a load of brexiting done in that time

 

[MrCurry]

So really it becomes (or will become) a stark choice between “no deal” and revoke, regroup and come back and do it all again next year.

I wonder whether the howls of protest from businesses or from Brexiteers will be loudest, and which will win the day.

 

[Wilf]

So really it becomes (or will become) a stark choice between “no deal” and revoke, regroup and come back and do it all again next year.

I wonder whether the howls of protest from businesses or from Brexiteers will be loudest, and which will win the day.

If Johnson gets the job, he'll waste several days coming out with pointless insults and then spending several more apologising. Almost certain to suggest Juncker is a pisshead.

 

[Crispy]

I really hope she has the chutzpah to style it out to the 31st, just for the headlines. Might be the most simultaneous identical headlines in british history?

She overshot, damnit

 

[Supine]

She overshot, damnit

She couldn't even get that right!

 

[Wilf]

So, assuming it's Johnson... and assuming there's no general election... and assuming he's willing to push it to the point of risking no deal (all 3 of which are questionable assumptions). Would the H of C:

A) end up with 'moderate tories' simply lining up with the opposition to block a hard brexit. Stalemate... further extension... gen election in the end.

or

B) Have a tory leader backed up with his own mandate from the party members, transforming the inner party debate, able to frighten remain minded tories into backing his strategy? Leave with a hard bexit/no deal.

or

C) something else e.g. Johnson is full of shit and just repackages May's deal, gets told to fuck himself by the EU etc.